By Dr. Tom Evans, SVP/Research, ABC Radio Networks

(from RBR/TVBR's Solutions Magazine, 12/05 issue)

The year 2006 will be a very important and pivotal year for media research in general and for radio research in particular. In 2006, the radio industry will be given the opportunity to make some important decisions regarding research. The choices will not always be easy and some will have significant financial implications.

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Arbitron: PPM. Arbitron is now pushing for a decision by the radio industry to adopt or not adopt the PPM. Conceptually, electronic measurement is better than utilizing diaries. The issue is implementation. The industry is going to have to make some tough decisions in 2006. It is going to have to weigh all of the issues related to PPM, both the research ones and the financial ones. Much like Solomon, the final answer might be dividing the baby. At this point (written in early November), there are still some unresolved research issues associated with PPM that are being examined by the RAB's PPM Research Sub-Committee. Out of the almost 200 questions raised by this group, here are a couple of key issues:

* PPM to Diary Ratio. Arbitron needs to demonstrate that the sample ratio of one PPM participant to two diarykeepers is the correct ratio.

* In-Tab Requirements. One of the critical PPM editing decisions that Arbitron has made is to set a minimum requirement of eight hours of motion time for Adults 18+ to be in the in-tab and five hours of motion time for Children 6-11 and Teens 12-17 to be in the in-tab. The radio industry needs a research justification for these motion thresholds.

* Amount of Test Data. More than three months of data are needed in order to analyze the PPM audience estimates and sample performance indicators. I am not comfortable making a decision this important based on two summer months - the least important in radio, and on the month of September, which included the approach of a major hurricane. Given that the PPM utilizes a panel, several months of data are needed to determine reliability and consistency of the measurement.

* Children's Listening. The incorporation of children's listening into the equation could be one of the most significant impacts on radio of the introduction of PPM. Does the PPM have the ability to accurately measure children's radio listening?

* Test versus Actual. Arbitron needs to explain in its radio-only scenario what will actually differ from what is being tested in Houston. What will be the impact of making these changes on the quality of the PPM sample? What will be the effect of a possible shift from an address-based sample to RDD (Random Digit Dial)?

* MRC Accreditation. While the MRC audit process is in motion, we all wait anxiously to see if the PPM methodology meets MRC Minimum Standards.

Arbitron: Diaries. In the meantime, the radio industry cannot let Arbitron simply tread water in 2006 in regards to the diary service. Response rates continue to decrease. Proportionality has become a growing issue.

Other Research Companies. There are several companies with alternative electronic measurement hardware in various stages of development. One utilizes a meter similar to the PPM; another, a watch; and, a third, a cell phone. In Great Britain, these different devices are being tested right now along side the PPM. The U.S. needs to undertake a similar comparison in 2006. Media research is much more than a collection device; it includes sample design, editing rules, and reporting. The companies with these other devices need to demonstrate expertise and quality beyond the hardware. It also will be interesting in 2006 to see if the Clear Channel request for RFPs generates any realistic alternatives.

Research Support. In 2006, more funds are going to be needed to support some exciting research initiatives. The RAEL has proved its worth in demonstrating the effectiveness of radio (thanks to Jim Peacock and the leadership of Jerry Lee and Mary Bennett; plus kudos to those various persons who participated in countless RAEL Research Committee meetings and conference calls). RAEL will be fielding several new major studies in 2006 as an outgrowth of a RFP review now underway. In addition, radio needs to get behind the Audience Measurement Initiative (AMI). If you do not know what this is, contact me at [email protected]. Every radio company should become charter members of the AMI.

Changes in Leadership. Lastly, 2006 will mean transition in two major industry organizations. The RAB will be searching for a replacement for Gary Fries; the NAB has its new head now in place. Media research has been part of both organizations and both have excellent researchers on staff. My challenge to the new leadership of the RAB and the NAB is to expand your efforts in the area of media research. Sponsor primary research to improve audience measurement. Audience estimates are the currency of our business. Keep those currencies stable and the industry succeeds.

Other Challenges. My other challenges to the industry in 2006 are:

* Radio Industry: Be proactive in research. Become aware of the "engagement" discussion going on with the ANA, AAAA, and ARF. Support and join RAEL, AMI, MRC, and ARF.

* Arbitron: Remember that you are a research company; take some of that revenue and invest it in improving the quality of the research.

* Other Research Companies: Take a chance.

* Group Owners: Hire a Chief Research Officer. If you do not have one - you are going to need research expertise especially in 2006 to sail through the rough seas of making critical and possibly very costly research decisions. Researchers are like lighthouses. They can help get you into port during those storms. Ignore them and you will end up on the rocks.

* My Research Colleagues: Speak up when there is bad research; tell your management when they are making decisions based on less-than-reliable research; and, demand quality in all research products - make it a requirement.