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2008 industry forecasts:
The good, the bad and the ugly

TVBR asked major industry organization heads in our annual survey for their 2008 forecasts, insights, solutions and ideas. 2008 promises to be a busy year for these organizations. IAB is grappling with keeping the FTC from regulating too much of its behavioral targeting abilities. Radio is still working to monetize HD and keep the dollars coming in. The TVB has to deal with less robust programming options from the networks due to the strike; and most everyone is in the midst of further capitalizing on digital and new technologies. We asked about everything from what they're recommending to constituents to whether they expect more growth this year in local or national.

RBR/TVBR spoke to Jeff Haley, Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB) CEO; O. Burtch Drake, American Association of Advertising Agencies (AAAA) CEO; Chris Rohrs, Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) President; Randall Rothenberg, Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) CEO; John Sturm, Newspaper Association of America (NAA) CEO; Sean Cunningham, Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau (CAB) CEO; and Stephen Freitas, Outdoor Advertising Association of America (OAAA) Chief Marketing Officer.

Today's question: What is your outlook for 2008?

Haley: Radio is positioned for a strong finish in 2008. The influx of political dollars, proliferation of non-spot activity, distribution of audio through new media channels, expansion of electronic measurement to more markets, and technological advancements that are giving us a visual element through the Internet and text-messages on display screens are expanding the definition of Radio.

Drake: Our member agencies are approaching 2008 with cautious optimism. Growth in the coming year is expected to be modest, between 2 percent to 3 percent. While the Olympic Games and U.S. elections will provide a boost in ad spending, the impact of these events will likely be negligible to agencies, which are no longer paid on commissions based on media spending. However, growth in digital and alternative media provides opportunities for agencies, whose services will be needed more than ever before to help clients navigate through the changing advertising landscape.

Rohrs: We're sticking with our Forecast as delivered Sept 6. Spot TV revenue will grow 9 to 10% in 2008. The market will be shaped by Political, Automotive and Olympic spending levels, by emerging digital opportunities and challenges and, of course, by the general economy. I would add one new factor, the possible impact of a prolonged writers strike.

Rothenberg: Interactive has been a very, very dynamic changing medium. It's hard to say without significant economic resources in house what the advertising outlook would be, but frankly there are a lot of others out there doing very, very good projections-organizations ranging from McCann Erickson to e-Marketer to ZenithOptimedia.

Sturm: The newspaper advertising forecast for 2008 reflects continuing unease in the economy, primarily from consumers being pinched by tight credit markets, rising energy costs and fewer employment opportunities. It is an environment that makes advertisers cautious about expenses.

Having said that, newspapers are communicating the value proposition to advertisers. We're transforming our products and changing how we put those products at the service of local, regional and national advertisers. The audience for newspaper Web sites is growing at a rapid pace, and add to that the explosion of new products to serve different segments of our local markets.

Also consider the purchase of other local communications businesses and the newspaper partnerships with global web portals. All of this will contribute to the progress we are making in presenting the proof of that new diversity of connection in ways that will serve advertisers in 2008.

Cunningham: 2008 should be a strong year for ad revenue growth for all of Cable - national, spot & local. Not only is 2008 a quadrennial year (presidential election & Olympics) with election dollars at all-time highs on TV, but we've also seen demand for all Cable ad inventory spike dramatically due to the big declines in Broadcast primetime ratings brought on by the WGA strike.

Freitas: Out of home advertising is the people's medium. Free information available to everyone. Out of home advertising is a growing $7.2 billion industry and the OAAA anticipates sustained growth in 2008.





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