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Saga looks at the broadcasting climate

Saga's Ed Christian and Sam Bush discussed various aspects of the broadcasting business in a wide-ranging conversation with analysts yesterday. Ed Christian in particular held forth on spotloads, the advertising recovery, Arbitron, station trading and IBOC. Click through for this must-read

Spotloads:
Christian noted that Saga never succumbed to the temptation to load up on inventory. In fact, if anyone in sales wants more inventory, they have to go to the top programmer, Steve Goldstein, to get it, and then it will only be for a limited time. Generally, they've held to a 10-12 minute/hour level, with slightly more for News-Talk. They applauded the Clear Channel initiative, and hoped CC would be able to stick it through, noting that it will be harder to do than it is to talk about.

Recovery:
This is related in some ways to spotloads. Christian said radio could not duck at least partial responsibility for its problems, and increased spotloads was part of it. He said the industry had to reclaim its reputation for fun - - and there are signs it is doing so. On the other hand, radio is a highly sensitive bellwether for general economic conditions, and though things are looking up, there have still been numerous speed bumps and hiccups - - a sustained pattern of good news has yet to take hold.

Arbitron:
Christian said the ratings giant was OK in large markets, but he finds it to be unreliable in smaller locales. That's why his company, along with others, ceased to support the Springfield IL book. He said he had problems elsewhere, like Champaign IL, and would not be going forward with a subscription in Ithaca NY when it closes on a pending acquisition there. He held out no hope, however, that radio companies would ever put together an effective ratings competitor. However, he pointed out that it may not be necessary, since some of the best arguments for buying radio can be made with qualitative data rather than straight ratings.

Station trading:
Christian said we are definitely in the summer doldrums - - there just isn't much going on right now. Part of the problem, he said, was the return of hungry venture capitalists to the market. In their efforts to gain traction, he said these groups are overpaying for questionable properties, keeping multiples artificially high.

IBOC:
Radio must take advantage of this new technology, said Christian, but it needn't rush in too fast. His biggest reservations were with the fact that the tech is entirely in the hands of one company, iBiquity, and the industry needs guarantees that iBiquity will make sure the tech goes on even if the company doesn't. There are also serious problems to work out on the AM side. However, since most radio listening is done on cheap receivers at the office, or over road noise in the car, getting full audiophile quality didn't have the same urgency that exists on the digital TV side of the equation.