Differing on Details, Bottom line weak Q2
Mark Wienkes at Goldman Sachs is the latest Wall Street analyst to send RBR his consolidated outlook for radio companies reporting Q2 results in the next couple of weeks. He thinks most of the companies will meet Wall Street expectations, although he says there is a "modest risk a few could slightly miss if revenue did not finish the quarter as planned." That puts him somewhere between the pessimistic Anthony DiClemente at Lehman Brothers and Marcia Ryvicker at Wachovia Securities, who expects no misses and even thinks Clear Channel and Entercom could beat expectations. Wienkes is expecting more weak performance in Q3, so he doesn't see anything to get him excited about the sector. "In short, secular (inventory and audience declines) and cyclical (weak ad growth) drivers are working against the radio industry, rendering pricing power anemic and revenue growth sluggish, while spending is in an up cycle, crimping margins," Wienkes said in his latest analysis.
How do the forecasts stack up? RBR has put the Q2 radio company revenue growth expectations for the three analyst's side-by-side.
Q2 2006 radio revenue growth estimates
| Company |
DiClemente |
Ryvicker |
Wienkes |
| Clear Channel |
4.7% |
4.5% |
5.0% |
| Citadel |
1.0% |
2.1% |
2.0% |
| Cumulus |
0.3% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
| Cox Radio |
-0.9% |
-0.4% |
-2.0% |
| Entercom |
-5.2% |
-5.0% |
-4.0% |
| Entravision |
8.3% |
8.3% |
NC |
| Radio One |
1.8% |
-4.5% |
-3.0% |
| Saga |
NC |
-5.0% |
NC |
| SBS |
5.5% |
NC |
NC |
| Westwood One |
-10.1% |
NC |
-10.0% |
Notes: NC=not covered. Ryvicker's estimates for Clear Channel and Saga are radio only; her estimate for Radio One excludes Reach Media.
