Web poll shows XM, Sirius in dead heat
In the satellite radio wars, the Jacobs Media 2006 Technology Poll shows XM and Sirius at parity - and the momentum arrows are pointing toward Sirius. While Howard Stern's exodus from terrestrial radio and multi-year contract has been highly debated, he emerges as a major reason for Sirius's gains, and potential growth.
In this poll of Rock, Classic Rock, and Alternative listeners, overall satellite radio subscribership increased from 7% in 2005 to 12% in this year's survey. Compared to other new media - Internet streaming, iPod ownership and usage, and cell phone applications, satellite radio remains a medium that is still very embryonic.
In a departure from documented subscription data that shows XM in the lead, the poll reveals a dead heat between Sirius and XM - both are tied with 6% each among all respondents. Men are more apt to subscribe to either service, as are 30-39 year-olds, college grads, and those with a household income of 100,000 and more. In the Rock communities, Sirius is emerging as the more attractive option.
The survey also asked non-subscribers about the chances they'd purchase either XM or Sirius later in 2006. While nearly nine in ten indicate little to no likelihood of signing up for either service, 5% report they're very apt to become an XM customer, compared to 7% for Sirius. Men and 18-39 year-old respondents lean toward Sirius.
What motivated current satellite radio subscribers to select either XM or Sirius? The differences between the two services are vast, and say a great deal about the programming strategies that Sirius and XM have employed.
For XM, the top reasons for signing up are the music channels (24%), commercial-free programming (14%), the belief that XM is good while traveling (12%), and because it came with the vehicle that respondents purchased/leased (11%). Other less frequently mentioned motivators include dissatisfaction with commercial radio, XM sports programming, and Opie & Anthony (all with 8% or less).
Sirius subscribers, on the other hand, were heavily motivated by the arrival of Howard Stern. Overall, one-third (32%) of those who now pay for Sirius list Stern as the key factor in their decision. Other reasons include the music channels (19%), and commercial-free programming (12%). Less frequently mentioned Sirius qualities include unhappiness with commercial radio, it's good for travel, and the fact it came with the car (all with 7% or less).
The vast majority of satellite radio subscribers in this survey are pleased with XM and/or Sirius. Three fourths (75%) say they're satisfied or very satisfied, while only 8% express some level of dissatisfaction.
Similarly, nearly six in ten (57%) say they will absolutely continue to subscribe, while one-fourth (23%) indicate they will probably stay with either XM or Sirius. Overall, 13% aren't sure, while 8% report being pretty or absolutely sure they will cancel satellite radio before the year is out.
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