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Coen slashes radio forecast

Ad guru Bob Coen's 2006 forecast for radio has fallen off a cliff since his optimistic prediction in December that both national and local would grow 4% this year. His revised numbers are for national (network & spot) to grow 1% and for local to show no growth at all. Radio, cable and newspapers took the biggest hits as, Coen, Sr. VP and Director of Forecasting at Universal McCann, announced his semi-annual forecast update.

"In the first quarter of 2006, National marketers increased their budgets in most media. However, National advertising in Newspapers experienced a substantial decline in the first quarter of 2006 as a result of comparative weakness in some important categories, such as factory ads by Automobile manufacturers, some Financial institutions as well as Travel and Resort ads. Most of the other media have posted respectable gains except for Radio and the Cable TV Networks. Radio is a minor medium for most National marketers and short-term volatility is quite common. In the case of the Cable TV Networks, the weak gains in the first quarter are probably due to a flattening out of prices after a sharp price run-up in 2005," the guru stated. Meanwhile, Internet advertising growth is far outstripping Coen's 10% growth forecast, so he has dramatically increased that to 25%. That and increases in his forecasts for national spot TV and syndicated TV more than countered decreases for most other national media, so his forecast for national ad spending rose to 7.1% form his previous 6.8%. Local, however, fell to 3.1% from 4%. That reduced Coen's overall forecast for US ad growth to 5.6% from his previous 5.8%.


RBR's chart compares Coen's original forecast and yesterday's revision.

Bob Coen's advertising forecast for 2006

Dec. '05

June '06

Ad spend

Media

Forecast

Revision

(millions)

Four TV networks

6.5%

6.5%

$17,175

National spot TV

8.5%

10.0%

$11,045

Cable TV

7.0%

4.5%

$19,120

Syndication TV

4.5%

5.5%

$4,080

National radio (net & spot)

4.0%

1.0%

$4,325

Magazines

5.5%

4.5%

$13,425

National newspaper

3.5%

0.0%

$7,465

Direct mail

7.5%

8.0%

$59,635

National yellow pages

3.0%

2.0%

$2,205

Internet

10.0%

25.0%

$9,705

Other national media

6.4%

6.3%

$36,925

TOTAL NATIONAL

6.8%

7.1%

$185,105

Local newspaper

3.0%

2.0%

$40,665

Local TV

4.5%

7.0%

$15,400

Local radio

4.0%

0.0%

$15,355

Local yellow pages

3.0%

1.0%

$12,185

Other local media

6.8%

5.8%

$17,695

TOTAL LOCAL

4.0%

3.1%

$101,300

GRAND TOTAL

5.8%

5.6%

$286,405


Source: Universal McCann




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