Here's an in-depth look at the current state of the 2005-2006 upfront from a major seller in the marketplace, who wishes to remain anonymous:

"Right now there are very preliminary kinds of conversation. Everyone is saying, sit tight. We'll call them and ask if anything is going on...anything happening, can we do anything? No, just sit tight, we're trying to get our budgets, etc. I think they all want to know what the networks are doing because the networks are obviously sending a signal that they're going to be very accommodating this year. So if that's still the linchpin, and regardless of what everyone says in the trades, it is the linchpin of your national buy as far as television is concerned, you've got to do that first. So everything else is being held back. Yes, we are having some substantial conversations with a couple of people, but I don't know if any of it will pan out. As soon as the networks and the agencies get their deals moving, then the rest of the marketplace will move."

What about the early deals with ABC?

"What happens is, let's say somebody wasn't a big supporter of ABC in years past and were big supporters of NBC, for argument's sake. And they're saying maybe I should do something early with ABC because I don't really have a good base with them and some of my clients they didn't do business with last year. And they don't want NBC to know about it. So they might be talking to ABC and having some things done. And ABC is saying this is good money because I don't have an established base - - you know how the game is played. If ABC was - - I'll just pick a number - - a dollar on a CPM. And NBC was 1.15 or 1.10, and you're an incumbent advertiser. For ABC, they can't go out and get 1.10 from the incumbent advertiser. They'll probably only get 1.05 or 1.06. Whereas a new advertiser that doesn't have a base with them, they could maybe get 1.12 or 1.14 from them. So they might be inclined to be doing some deals with people on the QT.

There's so many nuances in this game. There are upgrades and mixes, there are other dayparts you can play with. I mean you have a huge palette that you can pick paints from when you're working on a network. It's very powerful - - they have branded integration, they have specials, they have sports, they have news, they have late night, they have morning shows. They've got a million things they can work with you on. So there are many, many games going back and forth.

What about new accounts that they switch over?

Like AT&T/Cingular is now all over at Mediaedge. They're looking for younger demographics - - ABC's audience might be perfect for them. Maybe they didn't do a lot of business out of OMD. As things move around, it creates opportunities and voids. And that's why some of these things are being jockeyed about right now.

Once they've established a number that they feel comfortable with...in my personal point of view, once the networks establish a number, everything else will be benchmarked off of those numbers. And cable and syndication can stand on their heads, but nothing is going to change that in this kind of marketplace. The networks will rule. Cable and syndication can't get somebody to move right now unless they did something drastic. Because they're not ready to move. They don't know where the market ultimately is going to be. By the way, last year it tricked down to cable first, because the networks were stubborn. It's the only reason they went first this year. That's the way it's shaping up right now. I'm in contact with people, we're talking. We're saying we understand where the market is at, we're ready to move if and when the time comes. If you do run into obstacles, we're ready to help. Those are the kinds of conversations we're having."

PS. Indeed, we are hearing cable got a bit cocky this year, thinking there would be a repeat performance. They have been "rebuffed" for now.

Tuesday: Ray Warren, OMD USA Managing Director