Are you reading this from a forwarded email?
New readers can receive our RBR Morning Epaper FREE for the next 60 Business days! SIGN UP HERE
Welcome to RBR's Daily Epaper
Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Click on the banner to learn more...


RBC warns investors of soft radio revenues

RBC Capital Markets analyst David Bank is warning investors that radio revenues are pacing behind his previous expectations for Q3 - - and that Q4 is worrisome as well. In a note which headlined that Q3 for radio came in "like a lamb" and appears to be going out the same way, Bank said his checks across the country found "continuing lackluster radio performance" despite the November election now being less than 60 days away.

Why isn't radio getting a boost from TV inventories tightening up ahead of the election? The analyst cites anecdotal evidence that local cable may be picking up some of the political ad spending - - and spending from regular broadcast TV advertisers who are being squeezed out of TV by political ad buys. "Some of this strength could be at radio's expense," he noted.

For Q3, Bank has reduced his previous forecast of 2-3% radio growth to "flat-to-low-single-digit" growth. "We believe that September National pacings are currently in the flat-to-low-mid-single-digit range, with over 90% of September business booked. While a vast improvement over the 15% decline of July and estimated mid-single-digit decline in August, it's also significant deceleration from low-double-digit September pacings we saw in July," he said. Even so, he expects most of the public radio companies to outperform the overall industry and that there should not be and "dramatic underperformance" of the companies' guidance of Street expectations. "Most general-market operators that guided Q3 revenue growth in 3-5% range should either make low-end of guidance/estimates or 'just miss'," Bank suggested.

But then he gave the warning about the final quarter of this year: "Our Q4 5% Radio Industry revenue growth estimate could be at risk given early indications of October, but with political advertising potential and a -4% year-over-year November comp, it's still early - - National pacings appear surprisingly anemic (some sources have indicated them in the negative-single-digits) for October. We find this surprising given the expected impact of political spending on the overall advertising landscape," the RBC analyst told clients.


Radio Business Report
First... Fast... Factual and Independently Owned

Sign up here!
New readers can receive our RBR Morning Epaper
FREE for the next 60 Business days!

Have a news story you'd like to share? [email protected]

Advertise with RBR | Contact RBR
© 2004 Radio Business Report. All rights reserved.

©2004 Radio Business Report/Television Business Report, Inc. All rights reserved.
Radio Business Report 6208-B Old Franconia Rd. Alexandria, VA 22310