Forecasts Are a Mixed Bag: when will Obama listen, hear and learn

RBR-TVBR observation: The unemployment report was not bright but maybe not as grim either but no matter what, the economy is struggling to get a firm footing as this week’s happenings on Wall Street was a straight down hill roll that could not be stopped.

As for inside the beltway it was politics as usual in which the Obama administration not getting all the indications that are being reported by Wall Street to main street. Seems all in the Obama administration is wearing rose colored glasses and only focused on their own agenda and not missing a beat when using a crisis to their advantage.

The Gulf oil spill now into its third (3rd) month and still the administrations is dragging their feet and not paying attention what they were elected to do – change business in Washington, but only add more fuel to an old fire.

Americans are now wide awake on what Obama and Rahm Emanuel are truly up to – having government control all sectors of the free market. Think some call it ‘Control Freak’. For retail spending, below the forecasts are a mixed bag: younger specialty stores Up, upper income stores off.

For every two steps forward, the economy seems to take two steps back as June same store sales forecasts look more like January predictions than the April high, according to ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). However, the number of retailers expected to almost certainly see a decline has lessened since the beginning of the year indicating a glimmer of hope in the rocky recovery ahead.

Total Number for Retailers Tracked  

Total Number for Retailers Tracked  

“almost certain increase” indicator for May means that in June and July, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago.

Indicators for July and August forecast that BJ’s, Costco, Ross and TJX all are almost certain to see growth in same store sales (which mirrors their May forecasts).

Among youth specialty retailers, Aeropostale has moved to the “likely to see an increase” column from being flat last month and Abercrombie & Fitch also improved from an almost certain decline to a flat indicator.

On the other hand, high-end retailers are off from last month with Neiman Marcus dropping to likely to see an increase (from almost certain) and Saks now likely to experience decline (from flat).

Department stores and specialty retailers that target adults don’t fare as well. Dillard’s, JC Penney and Gap are all almost certain to post a decline and Banana Republic and Bon-Ton are likely to see a decline in their same store sales numbers.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same store sales year-over-year growth/decline through August follows:

(source on forecat: About ForecastIQ® ForecastIQ® was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 8 years of data from the BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions® (CIA™) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates)