Sure, the 2008 election season has only just begun, and so far only two states have weighed in on the presidential campaign in any concrete way, and none have kicked off their congressional contests. But that doesn’t mean its too early to take a look at 2010. We can thank the upcoming census and the reallotment of House seats that will come with it.
The states that figure to gain seats are all either in the south or the west; the losers are largely to the north. On the face of it, the trend would seem to favor the Republican party, although political experts who spoke with the Associated Press warned against handicapping such races this far out. Unpredictable political winds and the large effect state legislators will have on drawing new boundaries preclude any attempts to make predictions this far out.
Election Data Services and Polidata told AP that its looking like the gainers will be Texas with four new seats, Florida and Arizona with two each and Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina and Utah each gaining one.
Figuring to shrink are New York and Ohio, each dropping a pair of seats, and ten states facing the loss of one seat, including California, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
RBR/TVBR observation: State legislatures will do there best from coast to coast to gerrymander there way to an advantage, so this year’s election results at the state capital level will have a huge influence on how these new congressional district boundaries are drawn. The election battles in these states figure to be campaign cash heat-seekers, whether seats are being added or sacrificed. Added seats represent a fresh opportunity for each party, which will not escape the notice of national campaign funds in Washington. And the odds of a cash-rich battle are even greater in states which are losing representation, because the resulting redistricting almost invariably pits one incumbent against another — a battle with two known commodities who know how to build a warchest.