MAGNA Global’s most recent On-Demand Quarterly updates their year-end 2012 forecast for DVR subscriber households to 43.5 million (37.0% of TV households), up from their estimate of 26.0 million (23.4% of TV households) as of the end of Q1 2008.
By 2012, they expect that true Video-on-Demand (distinct from the simulated VOD offered by DBS providers DirecTV and EchoStar) will reach 63.1 million households (approximately 53.7% of television households). This compares with 37.8 million VOD households (33.9% of total TV households) at the end of the Q1 2008.
As of the end of March 2008, MAGNA estimates 65.7 million households had broadband access out of 116.4 million total households. They estimate that internet access was enjoyed by approximately 72.7 million households by the end of Q1 2008. They expect that total broadband access will rise to cover 86.7 million households by the end of 2012.
MAGNA estimates DirecTV added 350,000 DVR subscribers, as approximately 55% of new subscribers ordered advanced set-top boxes (HD and/or DVR). By their estimates, the company now has 5.6 million households with DVRs (32.6% of total subscribers).
Despite a smaller overall subscriber base, similar dynamics are driving EchoStar’s DVR subscriber levels, which they estimate now total 6.0 million households (43.3% of total subs).
Comcast remains the leading provider of DVRs and VOD among cable operators. MAGNA estimates that more than 4 million Comcast subscribers now have DVR services, equal to 16% of the company’s customer base. Concurrently, approximately 16 million of its 25 million subscribers, or 65% of total, have access to the company’s VOD service.
Time Warner Cable added 242,000 DVR subscribers, accounting for 27.2% of its basic cable homes.
Subsequent to the end of the quarter, the company announced that it delivered 131 million VOD streams during the month of March. This equates to approximately 15.6 streams per VOD subscriber for that month, slightly above figures reported through most of 2007.
At Charter, the company stated that two-thirds of its VOD enabled customers use the service, approximately in-line with figures reported by other MSOs, and up by 20% over the prior year. As the number of households with access to VOD rose by approximately 20%, the reported 44% growth in VOD orders implies modest growth in VOD consumption per VOD household.
Cox announced that DVR subscriptions grew by 30% year over year across its footprint, a slightly slower pace than the rest of the cable industry (where subscriptions rose by 36%). Separately, Cox announced that it would expand a trial launched last fall in Orange County with hit ABC network content. The service will offer free on-demand access to programming from ABC, NBC and Fox in four additional markets around the country.
TiVo’s stand-alone DVR subscriber total declined slightly, totaling 1.7 million as of the end of that company’s Q1.
