MAGNA Global ups estimates of VOD, DVR households


MAGNA Global has updated its On-Demand models to account for the most recently completed quarter and modified its historical data slightly to incorporate new information about the past and extended their forecasts through 2012. MAGNA’s year-end 2012 forecast for DVR subscriber households is 42.9 million (36.5% of TV households), up from their estimate of 23.1 million (20.8% of TV households) as of the end of Q3 2007.

By 2012, they expect that true Video-on-Demand (distinct from the simulated VOD offered by DBS providers DirecTV and EchoStar) will reach 62.8 million households (approximately 53.5% of television households). This compares with 34.6 million VOD households (31.2% of total TV households) at the end of the Q3 2007.

MAGNA estimates DirecTV added more than 500,000 DVR subscribers, as more than 50% of new subscribers ordered advanced set-top boxes (HD and/or DVR). By their estimates, the company now has approximately 4.9 million households with DVRs (29.6% of total subscribers)

Despite a smaller overall subscriber base, similar dynamics are driving EchoStar’s DVR subscriber levels, which they estimate now total 5.4 million households (39.2% of total subs).

Comcast remains the leading provider of DVRs and VOD among cable operators. The company reported that it now has 5.8 million HD and/or DVR customers as of the end of 2007. With approximately 225,000 DVR additions by MAGNA estimates, they believe the company now has 3.7 million DVR homes (equal to 15.4% of its total customer base). Comcast also has by far the largest number of subscribers with access to video-on-demand: virtually all of its 14.7 million digital subscribers have access at the present time.
Subsequent to the end of the quarter, Comcast provided new VOD viewing data for these customers. Reporting 6 billion VOD views from launch in 2004 through to the end of November, the company posted 1 billion views between August and September (250 million per month) up from 1.5 billion from January to August (around 200 million per month).