With radio revenues down 1% in May (7/3/07 RBR #129), analysts say they see no sign of any immediate improvement. "Our recent channel checks indicate the softness continued into June, which increases the risk that some operators fail to meet our 2Q revenue projections," said Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby in a note to clients. Specifically, he had been expecting Cox Radio and Entercom to be flat for Q2, but now sees a possibility that they will be down. Among the radio companies that he covers, Jacoby expects only Citadel to post a revenue gain, with an expected gain of 1.9% for the stations it owned prior to acquiring ABC Radio.
"A flattish Q2 top line for the sector seems to make for unexciting earnings in radio for investors. The average groups' Q2 estimated revenue guidance is for 0.2% growth," noted Jim Boyle at CL King. His forecast is that radio will repeat the 1% decline in June, while the consensus of his peers is for a flat month.