Wells Fargo Equity Securities (Marci Ryvicker and Timothy Schlock) are tracking political ad dollars. As a corollary to their political update report published 9/30 (“We Stick With Our $3.3B Political Forecast-Lower TVL Estimates”), we are tracking weekly political ad spend on broadcast TV from now until the November 2 elections. They also provide a weekly snapshot of those companies with the greatest exposure to each week’s incremental spend (both in terms of absolute dollars and as a percent of overall market revenue).
Recall that (1) broadcast TV typically receives 60% of all political ad dollars, and (2) generally 75% of political advertising comes in the 7-8 weeks leading up to the elections.
• Year to date, through October 10, political ad spend on broadcast TV totaled $1.230B. This represents a $148 million, or 14% increase, over the prior week (ending October 3). The pace of incremental spend jumped to +48% versus +10% last week–and the $148 million spent was the most year to date, surpassing the $145MM spent in the week ending September 19.
• TOP MARKETS THIS WEEK IN ABSOLUTE DOLLARS: Los Angeles, California; Chicago, Illinois; New York, New York; Orlando, Florida; and San Francisco, California.
• TOP MARKETS THIS WEEK AS PERCENT OF MARKET REVENUE: Tallahassee, Tennessee; Panama City, Florida; Wausau, Wisconsin; La Crosse, Wisconsin; and Wilkes Barre, Pennsylvania.
• TV COMPANIES WITH GREATEST EXPOSURE TO ABSOLUTE CHANGE: Multicultural TV, at 100%; NBCU/CMCSA, at 85.8%; CBS, at 85.4%; Tribune, at 83.1%; and DIS, at 82.4%.
• TV COMPANIES WITH GREATEST EXPOSURE TO CHANGE AS % OF MARKET REV: EVC, at 46.5%; JRN, at 26.2%; MDP, at 22.1%; NXST, at 20.5%; and GTN, at 14.8%.
• RADIO COMPANIES WITH GREATEST EXPOSURE TO ABSOLUTE CHANGE: SBSA, at 86.9%; ABC/DIS, at 83.0%; CBS, at 74.0%; EMMS, at 65.0%; and Univision, at 64.1%.
• RADIO COMPANIES WITH GREATEST EXPOSURE TO CHANGE AS % OF MARKET REV: BBGI, at 9.0%; SGA, at 8.7%; EVC, at 7.2%; CDELA, at 5.8%; and CBS, at 5.4%.
POLITICAL ADVERTISING ON BROADCAST TV – Last 3 Months
TELEVISION:
Company Revenue Exposure To “Hot” Political Markets For Week Ending 10/10
RADIO:
Company Revenue Exposure To “Hot” Political Markets For Week Ending 10/10
Weekly Change In Absolute Dollars – Top 20 Markets & Company Revenue Exposure
