Weekly tracking by Vic Miller and his team at Bear Stearns credits the jump in political ad spending for the week of March 16th to state-specific races. Governor races are heating up in Indiana and North Carolina and there is a contentious judgeship fueling spending in Wisconsin.
None of those three states, however, have cracked the top five for campaign spending this election cycle. Those are California, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New York and Texas. Publicly traded TV groups with the most to gain from political spending in the 15 hottest campaign states include Hearst-Argyle, Entravision, Young, Sinclair and Belo. Radio gets less political spending, but the biggest potential beneficiaries look to be Emmis, Salem, Beasley and Entercom.
More from the Bear Stearns team:
"Living In A Political World" Update – Week Of March 16
· Indiana, North Carolina and Wisconsin Benefit During Week Of March 16. These states saw an increase in spending due to an increase in candidate dollars in Indiana and North Carolina related to contentious gubernatorial races (Republican Mitch Daniels in Indiana faced weak approval ratings and Democrat Mike Easley in North Carolina is term limited) as well as several contentious House races. In Wisconsin, a contentious judgeship led to an increase in spending.
· Companies Most Exposed To Indiana, North Carolina And Wisconsin. McGraw Hill’s ABC affiliate derives 22% of its television revenues from Indiana; Gray TV derives 6%; LIN TV derives 5%. Sinclair derives 8% of its revenues from North Carolina; Hearst-Argyle derives 6%; Belo 5%. Journal Communications derives 34% of its revenues from Wisconsin; Young derives 9% from this state.
· TV Companies Most Exposed To Top 15 State Spending. The top five states that have seen the most issue and campaign spending include CA, IA, PA, NY, and TX. Companies in which television affiliates represent a meaningful percentage of revenues and derive the greatest percentage of their revenues from the top 15 states include Hearst-Argyle (71%), Entravision (60%), Young (56%), Sinclair (54%), and Belo (47%).
· Radio Companies Most Exposed To Top 15 State Spending. Radio companies who derive the greatest percentage of their revenues from these same top 15 states most exposed to television political spending include Emmis (80% of total revenues), Salem (68%), Beasley (66%), and Entercom (56%).