Report: TV strong, radio challenged


Wells Fargo SecuritiesIt’s more than just political feeding bank accounts of television stations and groups – Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker says almost all categories are hot and that the heat will spill over into 2013. Radio may not participate fully in the good times, but a new competitor might.

Discussing television revenues, Ryvicker used the term “on fire” to describe core advertising trends. She added that automotive is hot and could get hotter, and that it and telecom will likely lead results into 2013.

Ryvicker also had good things to say about Pandora – she said it has been “…characterized as a very efficient local buy for large, national advertisers.”

Online video is said to be catching a positive wave as well, but is harmed by the lack of a comprehensive measuring system, making it very hard to determine effectiveness. She also said it was unlikely Nielsen would be the one to provide such measurement.

She didn’t have much at all to say about broadcast radio, but it did come up in her assessment of the media in general. She said, “Allocation of ad dollars is fluid, with broadcast stable, digital/internet increasing, and radio continuing to face some challenges.”

In terms of political, Ryvicker said Wisconsin was coming in stronger than expected while Missouri and Pennsylvania were lagging expectations. She also suggested that the number of “persuadable” undecideds was very limited, somewhere in the 700K-800K range, and that syndicated pair “Wheel of Fortune” and “Jeopardy!” were excellent programs for reaching them.

Ryvicker noted that television operators seem to have resigned themselves to the reality of reverse compensation for their networks; and noted that television broadcasters in general remain uneasy about spectrum auctions in general and station repacking in particular.