Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne says his Q2 estimate that satellite radio retail sales would be down 8% "could be aggressive." April started the quarter off with a combined 24% drop for XM and Sirius, although the monthly count by NPD does not include Wal-Mart and online sales. That's the 8th straight month of double digit percentage declines in satellite radio receiver sales at retail outlets.
Swinburne noted that Sirius showed its first material market share improvement in April since December, with 55.5% of the retail sales reported by NDP, compared to a 44.5% market share for XM. "Continued weaker retail category trends further highlight the importance of OEM adds for subscriber growth for both XM and SIRI. While April NPD data suggests our current forecast could be aggressive, we forecast XM and SIRI retail gross adds declining 4% and 12% in Q2 and 9% and 14%, respectively for full year 2007. Our category forecast assumes Sirius maintains its share advantage throughout the year," the analyst wrote.