We already know that SiriusXM beat its own expectations for subscriber growth in 2011, ending the year with about 21.9 million subscribers to its satellite radio service. The company has also made a habit of beating its own financial guidance. Will CEO Mel Karmazin get to crow yet again as he talks with Wall Street analysts on Thursday morning?
“Sirius XM Radio (SIRI). On Jan. 4, Sirius XM announced it had finished the year with nearly 21.9 million subscribers, implying 1.7 million net adds in 2011, slightly ahead of the 1.6 million guidance given on its Nov. 1 earnings call. The company reiterated its full-year guidance of $3 billion in revenue, EBITDA of $720 million (24% margin) and free cash flow guidance of $400 million,” said Wells Fargo Securities high-yield bond analysts Bishop Cheen and Davis Hebert in a note to clients setting up the SiriusXM Q4 results announcement.
“In 2012, Sirius expects to grow revenue by 10% to $3.3 billion, with EBITDA moving higher by roughly 20% to $860 million and free cash flow of $700 million, resulting in a liquidity of nearly $1.5 billion at the end of 2012,” they noted.
So, what should we expect to hear from Karmazin?
“For Q4, we forecast net revenue to increase 4.3% year over year and to reach $772.4 million, while EBITDA is expected to rise to $162.1 million (+12.2% year-over-year). This implies our FY 2011 net revenue estimate is in line with company guidance at $3.012 billion (+6.1%) and EBITDA is expected to be $725.8 million (+15.9%). Leverage remains moderate at 4.2x gross and 3.3x net of cash,” said Cheen and Hebert.
RBR-TVBR observation: The sell recommendation from Barclays Capital analyst James Ratcliffe doesn’t seem to have had much impact on SiriusXM’s stock price. In fact, it closed Wednesday back above where it had been before his initial report on the company.