Consider television advertising and viewing officially disrupted in 2016.
Broadcast television is predicted to gain a big chunk of advertising thanks for political dollars in 2016, however the gain may be short-lived.
These are two predictions from some 300 media and advertising experts polled by Borrell Associates and drilled down into by RBR+TVBR.
Cable is not only riding on this year’s political advertising bonanza, but also appealing to local advertisers in its target ability (over broadcast TV stations), according to Borrell, which says to look for a 5.6% increase.
Broadcast TV should see a 19.7% increase this year over last, due almost solely to an influx of political advertising. But the ride will be short-lived.
“When the tide recedes in 2017, it’s likely to show TV losing a significant share of its main advertiser, the auto dealer. Stations typically get 20% to 25% of their local ad dollars from this category, yet alienate these long-term loyal customers in election years when stations sell out their inventory to politicians,” according to Borrell.
The other punch to television is the rise of personalized, on-demand viewing over a stream rather than appointment live television.
While experts are all over the map at predicting when streaming overtakes live viewing, advertisers and media experts predict the “second screen” will overtake the first screen by 2018.
The bottom line — more than half of prime time television will soon be watched on computers, handheld devices and other devices than by traditional cable or broadcast.
However rather than fighting this trend, television executives should not see this as a negative, but rather a positive opportunity to increase engagement in their product with smart ads and click throughs to a show’s site — encouraging sharing with other viewers on social sites, advises these experts. These experts predict the probability this trend will occur is something like 70 to 80%.
RBR+TVBR observation: This prediction will come to pass, especially if one includes smart TVs into the mix. Like radio, television executives should consider producing their own streaming video or partnering with others on those projects in order to go where viewers are going in addition to broadcasting.