TV forecast increased by Barclays


Having reviewed their forecast for US advertising revenues in 2010, analysts Anthony DiClemente and George Hawkey have increased their TV expectations. In fact, they’ve raised their forecast for every sector of television.

With scatter pricing up and the networks having held back plenty of inventory from the Upfront, the analysts see stronger growth for network advertising. Throw in the Olympics boost for NBC and they see network television advertising growing 7.8% in 2010, rather than their previous projection of 4.5%.

Cable networks also held back inventory in the Upfront and are now benefiting on the pricing front. Also, the analysts say marketers are increasingly looking for audience and performance based ads, which bodes well for the more focused cable nets. So, 2010 growth is now expected to be 6.0%, rather than 5.5%.

And now the category most of our readers care the most about:

“Local TV stations realized dramatic declines in 2009, particularly given decline in auto spending on the order of roughly 35-45% year-over-year. From a cyclical standpoint, the return of automotive as well as higher political advertising revenue should provide local TV outlets with a tailwind in 2010,” the analysts wrote. The Barclays duo is looking for political ad spending, most of it going to local stations, of about $3 billion. They note that political spending this year will be driven by 38 senatorial races, over 30 gubernatorial races and, of course, the entire House of Representatives.

Excluding political, DiClemente and Hawkey expect local TV revenues to rise 5.0% in 2010, up from their previous forecast of 3.0%.

Include that political windfall and Barclays is forecasting that all of television (network, local and cable combined) with grow 10.1% this year, more than double the previous forecast of a 4.6% increase.