TVB sees spot revenues up 3.6-6.1% in 2010


After studying various private forecasts, the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) issued its take at Thursday’s Forecast Conference in New York. In his last forecast as TVB President, Chris Rohrs said to expect local spot to be up 1-3% next year and national 6-12% for a total of 3.6-6.1% growth.

TVB 2010 Forecast

Local Spot

 +1.0 to +3.0%

National Spot

 +6.0 to +12.0%


 +3.6 to +6.1%

Station Websites


Station Mobile



TVB said the 2010 market would be shaped by consumer confidence related to the job market; competition between established and emerging media; consumer adoption of new technologies such as the DVR, online video, mobile web applications and social media networks; advertiser targeting strategies; and the network/spot mix. “The key categories to watch in 2010 will be automotive and political,” said Rohrs.

TVB noted that its estimates – derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research – represent national averages. Individual firms and stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including market size, region of the country, and affiliation. 

In his presentation to hundreds of broadcasting and advertising industry execs, Rohrs compared the forecasts of Benchmark, BIA, Jack Myers, JPMorgan, Magna, SNL Kagan, VSS and Wells Fargo Securities. Among those, the forecasts for local spot range from down 2% to up 5% in 2010. For national spot, the range is from barely above flat to up 10%. From that wide range of opinions, TVB drew its forecast detailed above.