US ad revenues to grow 3.1% in '11


This, excluding the impact of political and Olympic advertising. Digital and broadcast media continue to grow rapidly, as does the outdoor business (digital, TV, radio and outdoor collectively will grow by 6.9% during 2011). Specifically, TV advertising is expected to rise by 6.3% on a normalized basis in 2011 and digital display to grow by 11.6%. Brian Weiser, EVP/director of global forecasting MAGNAGLOBAL, tells RBR-TVBR they are calling for 1.7% growth for Local Radio and 4.5% growth for Network and Satellite radio in 2011.

This, in spite of underlying economic challenges persist – primarily the continuing weakness in unemployment rate, the absence of a meaningful pick-up in the overall economy and constrained deployments of capital among businesses of all kinds, said the latest MAGNAGLOBAL report.

The estimate is in line with their revised estimates for 2010, which they still say will end up growing by a similar amount: “Total advertising levels remain below those observed in 2003, with the industry’s size likely to equate to $173 billion in revenues this year. Including the impact of Political and Olympic advertising, total advertising will only grow by 1.9% during 2011, lower than the 4.3% we expect for 2010.”

Reported totals are held back by weakness in printed media, which weakens with every passing quarter (newspapers, magazines, directories and direct mail will likely decline by 2.9% during 2011).

New platforms are growing at even faster rates. MAGNAGLOBAL said interest in mobile advertising has been catalyzed among large advertisers over the past year, and they expect growth of 60.1% during 2011. Online video ad growth should be around 26.8% this year. Emerging outdoor media will also outpace the rest of the outdoor industry as inventory is increasingly monetized; they expect the sub-sector to grow by 17.4%. Paid search will also fare well, rising by 11.1% during the same period.