Wachovia: scatter remains 20%-30% above upfront rates

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The Wachovia Media team reports scatter pricing for cable and TV networks remains up in the 20-30%’s vs. upfront rates. The “frothy” scatter market, as their report says, has elevated expectations for the ’10-’11 upfront, potentially creating some risk to valuation in the event actual increases are not as lofty as the current scatter market would suggest. “We think cable nets will come out of the upfront with mid single digit CPM increases, while broadcast nets may get mid-high single digit CPM increases, on average,” the report said.


The details by network:
CBS won 30 of the 44 time slots (total HH), vs. 6 at ABC, 8 at FOX, and 0 at NBC. Averaging all demos, CW had the best y/y viewer trends, +3% vs. CBS -10%, NBC -9%, FOX -8%, and ABC -6%.

ABC primetime (PT) average household (HH) rating was -6% and P18-49 was -7% (season-to-date (STD) was -7%/-10%). CBS PT avg. HH rating was -6% and P18-49 was -14% (STD was -3%/-1%). FOX PT avg. HH rating was -8% and P18-49 was -8% (STD was flat/flat). NBC PT avg. HH rating was -15% and P18-49 was -8% (STD was +7%/-2%).

For Viacom, MTV’s Total Day (TD) avg. audience was -10% for P2+ and -10% for P12-34 (STD was +3%/+1%). VH1 TD avg. audience was -15% for P2+ and -13% for P18-49 (STD was -17%/-18%). Nickelodeon TD avg. audience was +3% for P2+ and +6% for P2-11 (STD was +2%/+3%). Comedy Central TD avg. audience was +1% for P2+ and +6% for P18-49 (STD was -10%/-9%).

Discovery Channel PT avg. audience was -7% for P2+ and -5% for P25-54 (STD was -3%/-2%). TLC PT avg. audience was +7% for P2+ and +3% for P25-54 (STD was +9%/+8%). Animal Planet PT avg. audience was +11% for P2+ and +10% for P25-54 (STD was +3%/+9%).

Scripps Networks: HGTV PT avg. audience was -1% for P2+ and flat for P25-54 (STD was +14%/+10%). Food Network PT avg. audience was flat for P2+ and -5% for P25-54 (STD was +14%/+13%). The Travel Channel PT avg. audience was -5% for P2+ and -9% for P25-54 (STD was +4%/+8%).

Disney: ESPN PT avg. audience was -4% for P2+ and -8% P18-49 (STD was +15%/+14%). Disney Channel PT avg. audience was +19% for P2+ and +13% P2- 11 (STD was +8%/+8%).

News Corp: Fox News Channel PT avg. audience was -5% for P2+ and -5% for P25-54 (STD was -11%/-5%). F/X PT avg. audience was +9% for P2+ and +3% for P18-49 (STD was +2%/flat).

Time Warner: TNT PT avg. audience was -16% for P2+ and -21% for P18-49 (STD was -3%/-7%). TBS PT avg. audience was -2% for P2+ and -12% for P18-34 (STD was -7%/-7%). CNN PT avg. audience was -23% for P2+ and -6% for P25-54 (STD was -49%/-57%).