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Radio News ®
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National pacings dismal for Q1
RBR has obtained data generated by one of the national rep firms showing just how soft national spot pacings for radio are in Q1. The numbers are pretty shocking. As of January 7th, when the data was generated, the top 10 markets were pacing 18.6% behind where they were at the same date a year earlier. Only one of those top 10 markets was in positive territory - Philadelphia. Markets 11-25 were about the same, down 16%. For the entire top 100 markets, pacings were down 17.2%.
Q1 2008 national radio pacings as of 1/7/08
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Current
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Prior
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Current
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Market Name
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Billing
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Billing
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Pacing
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NEW YORK CITY (NY)
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$ 10,732,988
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$ 13,567,504
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73.0%
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LOS ANGELES (CA)
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$ 11,658,622
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$ 15,184,631
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70.9%
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CHICAGO (IL)
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$ 9,790,152
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$ 11,026,372
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82.0%
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SAN FRANCISCO (CA)
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$ 10,705,998
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$ 14,352,600
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68.9%
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DALLAS/FT WORTH (TX)
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$ 7,513,252
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$ 10,252,508
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67.7%
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HOUSTON/GALVESTON (TX)
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$ 10,484,548
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$ 10,383,900
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93.2%
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PHILADELPHIA (PA)
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$ 11,005,870
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$ 9,588,098
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106.0%
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ATLANTA (GA)
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$ 6,886,959
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$ 7,542,095
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84.3%
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WASHINGTON (DC)
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$ 9,010,424
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$ 8,690,086
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95.7%
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BOSTON (MA)
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$ 7,966,720
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$ 8,031,606
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91.6%
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1-10 Market Total
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$ 95,755,533
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$ 108,619,400
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81.4%
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You can see the entire list of 100 at www.RBR.com.
RBR observation: Was it just coincidence that Philadelphia, a PPM market, was the only top 10 market in plus territory? Houston, the other PPM market, was not up, but it was off less than 7%, so better than most of the other big markets. Only two others in the top 25, Phoenix and Baltimore, had positive pacings.
Publishing powers quarter for Meredith
While newspaper publishers are suffering, Meredith Corporation posted earnings growth of nearly 30% in fiscal Q2 (September-December) for its magazine publishing operations. Broadcasting revenues were down 16% to 88 million, but that was due to the lack of political revenues. Non-political broadcasting revenues rose 6%. CEO Steve Lacy also pointed out to analysts that online revenues for the broadcast division - 13 TV stations and one radio - increased 50% in the quarter, with monthly viewership up six-fold to three million. What about the current quarter? Pacings are down slightly for broadcasting, as well as for Meredith's publishing division. Meredith Broadcasting Group President Paul Karpowicz noted that the company's stations have seen some political spending in Arizona and Georgia ahead of the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.
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No help for Kucinich in Washington or Cleveland
As predicted, the FCC cited the First Amendment as one reason for it to stay out of the dispute between Democratic long-shot presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) and CNN, which excluded the candidate from its 1/21/08 debate. Candidates from both parties are lining up to relieve Kucinich of his Congressional duties. "Cable television operators have wide discretion in choosing programming that is available on a cable system," said the FCC on opening its answer to Kucinich's emergency complaint. It said that equal time provisions in the Communications Act do not apply to bona fide news coverage of the campaign, and that the debate was in that category. "As a threshold matter, the Commission does not have authority to grant Kucinich's request that the Commission order CNN to include him in the subject debate." FCC also said that Kucinich failed to demonstrate that CNN abused its discretion or "...intended to further the candidacy of any particular individual," nor that CNN's entry criteria were unreasonable.
Meanwhile, the Ohio Rep is facing an intramural challenge back home for his seat in Ohio's 10th District. One of them, Barbara Anne Ferris, actually claims a Cleveland Plain Dealer endorsement from 2006, and accuses Kucinich of a "decade of neglect to the district and deceit to the constituents about his accomplishments." She added that "...he hasn't really done much besides put his face in front of the camera." As of 9/30/07, Kucinich had only 3.9K set aside for his Congressional re-election campaign. Ferris, with 12.2K was only in second place among Democrats, behind Rosemary Palmer's 26.3K. Two other Democrats at the time were sitting on empty bank accounts. On the Republican side, Jason Werner had 16.4K to spend, while James Peter Trakas was running on empty.
RBR observation: New numbers should be out soon; presumably many of these candidates have picked up the pace on fund-raising. At any rate, it opens up yet another method by which a race becomes something of a heat-seeker. If your local representative has a habit of mounting quixotic races for national office to the extent that locals find it to be a dereliction of duty, it can lead to unexpected infusions of cash into the political advertising category.
 Bargain hunting time
Are there bargains to be had in the stock market these days? Analyst David Miller at SMH Capital (Sanders Morris Harris) is telling clients that CBS Corporation is one of them. Yes, the WGA strike is having an impact on revenues, so Miller has lowered his expectations for Q4 when CBS reports its numbers next month, reducing TV-related revenues by 142.3 million and EBITDA by 71.1 million. But he also notes that CBS has been buying back lots of its own stock, so he's reduced his model of the number of shares outstanding to 675 million and comes up with no change in his previous estimate that the company will have 53 cents of earnings per share for the quarter. "The WGA strike has extended three weeks beyond our projection, and with CBS easily the most exposed, we are recalibrating our 2008 estimates to account for less scripted programming, though more reality programming and more one-off 'specials,' which command a lower CPM for advertisers but are far less expensive to produce," Miller said in a research report. So, his 2008 revenue projection drops to 14.4 billion from 14.6 billion and his EBITDA projection to 3.27 billion from 3.34 billion. Noting how much CBS' stock price has fallen in recent months, Miller calls the stock "a screaming bargain" which explains why CBS has been so aggressive in buying its own shares and why the analyst thinks investors should as well.
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Taking the bloom off the berg?
According to new Gallup Poll, there does not appear to be much of a public appetite for a third party candidate at the moment. The poll, flagged by bloggers Greg Mitchell and Greg Sargent, finds that 84% of respondents say at least one of the candidates currently running would make a good chief executive; 72% say the candidates are addressing issues of greatest concern; and 58% say that one or more has "...good ideas for solving the country's problems." Gallup wrote, "The American public does not appear to believe it is important or necessary for an independent candidate outside the traditional two major parties to step into the race in order to save the nation."
RBR observation: The aura around Michael Bloomberg has been heating up lately, but maybe this will knock it down a few notches on the thermometer. We have no idea if this result jibes with the results the New York City mayor has been getting in his own quiet researches. Of course, a steep uphill climb often is not nearly enough to stop a committed candidate. But whether or not Bloomberg enters the race, make sure the drawer on you cash register is well-oiled -- political is going to be a hot category this year with or without him, if you had the wisdom and foresight to locate you station in the right battleground.
 CEOs like Texas, Nevada
and North Carolina
These states finished one-two-three in a survey of chief executive officers conducted by Chief Executive Magazine. The key for the top two was the lack of a state income tax. The two worst state, New York (50) and California (51) earned their dubious placement with the most convoluted regulatory structure among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Criteria for consideration included: proximity to resources, regulation, tax policies, education, quality of living and infrastructure. CEOs were asked to grade the states on the basis of taxation & regulation, workforce quality, and living environment. "Overall, the message CEOs are sending is that over-taxed and over-regulated states are not conducive to the health of their businesses," said Ed Kopko, CEO and Publisher, Chief Executive Group. "This is the message they've been communicating since our poll started in 2005. However, in states like California and New York, where we are increasingly facing a shrinking population, the message seems to have fallen on deaf ears, as CEOs continue to be extremely frustrated with the business-unfriendly practices in these states."
RBR observation: Broadcasters, of course, cannot just pick up and move to another state. The FCC has that pesky main studio rule tethering local operations to their local community. However, there is nothing in the FCC dictating where your company headquarters have to be located.
| See how your state stacks up |
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Ad Business Report TM
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Ron Paul radio ads airing in eight states
Texas Congressman and Republican candidate for president Ron Paul's campaign is running a series of radio ads in Alabama, California, Colorado, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Maine and North Dakota in anticipation of the states' upcoming primaries and caucuses. The ad can be found here:
Here's the transcript of the 60 second ad:
Narrator: Who is Ron Paul, the Republican candidate for president?
Ron Paul served his country as a flight surgeon after the Cuban missile crisis. As a young doctor, Ron Paul worked nights in the emergency room of an inner city hospital, taking care of everyone, whether they could pay or not.
As an OB/GYN, Ron Paul delivered over 4,000 babies. Dr. Ron Paul knows our health care system needs real change, where patients and doctors are in charge, not big corporations or government bureaucrats.
As a congressman for almost 2 decades, Ron Paul knows our constitution is there to protect our freedom and limited government. He has never voted for a tax increase or an unbalanced budget. His record clearly shows he will cut taxes and stop runaway spending. People who know him call him the taxpayer's best friend. To learn more about this remarkable man, go to ronpaul2008.com. That's ronpaul2008.com.
Ron Paul: I'm Ron Paul and I approve this message.
Narrator: Paid for by Ron Paul 2008 PCC.
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| Media Business Report TM |
 Target launches new music store front
Target launched a new music store front with the help of Sony BMG and Hip Digital Media. The new store front is an effort to take music and content to the forefront of the digital world and is a first for Target. With Amazon, iTunes and Wal Mart taking digital leads in music, Target is now stepping up with custom music store fronts, and working directly with labels. This is the first digital download site promotion in the U.S for Target. Hip Digital Media was chosen to build and power the new launch with musician John legend - www.johnlegend.com.
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| Washington Business Report TM |
14 AM apps hit the skids
The FCC did not receive necessary paperwork for 14 singleton AM Auction 84 applications by the 9/26/07 deadline, and therefore has summarily dismissed them. In the off chance your engineering department has an interest in the now unclaimed frequencies, the dismissed applications include: 920 kHz Ensley FL; 540 kHz Hilo HI; 920 kHz Millilani HI; 1600 kHz Hibbing MN; 1400 kHz Spring Creek NV; 1490 kHz Flora Vista NM; 1400 kHz Los Lunas NM; 1380 kHz Bridgeton NC; 720 kHz Lakeview OR; 1450 kHz Powell Butte OR; 1390 kHz Morrisville PA; 810 kHz Nolensville TN; 1270 kHz Bay City TX; and 1240 kHz Carrollton TX.
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| Media Markets & Money TM |
Price revealed in Ohio
The price is out for the transaction sending five Clear Channel stations to BAS Broadcasting, headed by CEO Tom Klein and President Jim Lorenzen. The deal, which includes WLEC-AM, WCPZ-FM & WMJK-FM in Sandusky OH, and WTTF-AM & WPFX-FM in Findlay-Tiffin OH, is valued at 5.2M. Brokerage chores were handled by Patrick Communications and Kalil & Company.
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| Executive Comment |
Fred Jacobs assesses Jim Boyle's P1 advice to radio
 Jacobs Media President Fred Jacobs (pictured) was intrigued by the comments for CL King analyst Jim Boyle published a few days ago in RBR (1/18/08 RBR #12) on new ways that radio stations might look to monetize the value of their P1 listeners. "These are indeed the people who are loyal, engaged, and emotional about Radio stations. We need them - badly. But for the most part, Radio continues to look past them, trolling for diarykeepers and possible PPM cooperators. Yet, it's the P1s who are still showing up for events and even for meaningless, unentertaining advertiser promotions. They still call the request lines, and they are habituated by our morning shows. And the incredibly great news is that the majority of them are locked and loaded in Radio station databases. We have simple (and free) access to them - in many cases, by the thousands. The question - as Boyle asks - is how do we best utilize and mobilize them to Radio's advantage?" Jacobs has posted some detailed ideas of his own on how to better make use of radio's relationship with its P1s on his Jacobs Media blog.
You may read his entire commentary on www.RBR.com.
"So, thanks Jim Boyle, and RBR, for swimming upstream and shaking the tree. That may be the way out of this mess," Jacobs concludes.
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| Entertainment Business Report TM |
JRN's Clark Howard joins CNN's Robin Meade
for "Money Coach" series
Clark Howard, Jones Radio Networks' nationally syndicated host of The Clark Howard Show, is appearing on CNN Headline News' Morning Express with Robin Meade. JRN's money expert and consumer advocate joins Meade for the "Money Coach" series on 1/22 and 29 at 7:35am ET. Each segment, designed to help viewers improve their financial lives, will be re-played on its respective day at 8:35am, 10:35am and 2:35pm ET on Headline News. Howard hosts weekly consumer segments for CNN's Daybreak and WSB-TV Atlanta and writes a weekly column for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Beasley announces fourth HD2 in SW FL
Beasley Broadcast Group announced its 96.1 K-ROCK is now multicasting "Haney's Big House 96.1" on HD2. Haney's Big House embraces the past, revisiting the days when radio was loosely programmed for a regional audience. Said Mark Haney, long-time Morning Co-host on 96.1 K-ROCK: "Listeners can expect to hear plenty of Southern rock from greats like Lynyrd Skynyrd, The Allman Brothers and Molly Hatchet, as well as a healthy dose of blues, Americana, roots music and REAL country - Waylon, Willie, Johnny Cash and a dash of David Alan Coe. Haney's Big House will also frequently pay homage to several great Florida bands that listeners may not have heard before."
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| Ratings & Research |
 BIGresearch: More folks multitasking media than ever
According to BIGresearch's latest Simultaneous Media Survey (SIMM 11), the only way for people to keep up with the deluge of media options is to multitask with other media. The level of simultaneous media usage in SIMM 11 increased over SIMM 10 for all major forms of media. This does not mean all traditional media are declining in influence. Media that can target, be timely, and deliver value to consumers, such as coupons/direct mail, radio, yellow pages, newspapers and newspaper inserts all increased in influence to purchase as consumers are looking to stretch budgets in a slowing economy. Regular simultaneous media consumption for online, newspapers, magazines, radio, TV and direct mail is up from 1% to 35%, depending on the medium. Channel surfing remains the #1 regular activity engaged in during TV commercials with 41.2% doing so followed by:
- 33.5% talk with others in the room or by phone
- 30.2% mentally tune out
- 5.5% regularly fully attend to commercials
Top simultaneous media used when reading a newspaper are: watch TV, listen to the radio and go online. For people listening to radio, other media simultaneously used are (top 3): engage in other activities, go online and read the newspaper.
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| Transactions |
415K WHJB-AM Bedford PA from John H. Cessna to Cessna Communications Inc. (Jay B. Cessna, John H. Cessna, Leila E. Cessna). 1 dollar down payment, 999 dollars cash at closing, 14K note. Duopoly with WBFD-AM, WAYC-FM & WBVE-FM. [File date 12/21/07.]
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| Stock Talk |
Stocks recover somewhat from big drop
An emergency rate cut of three-quarters of a percentage point by the Fed seemed to steady the US markets, even though stock prices initially fell dramatically. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been down more than 460 points, ended the day off 128 points, or 1.1%, at 11,971 - back below the 12K barrier.
A few radio stocks were up, but not many. The RBR Radio Index declined 0.489, or 0.6%, to an all-time low of 77.721. The best performer was Beasley, up 7.4%. The worst was Westwood One, down 10.2%.
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| Radio Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Tuesday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Arbitron*
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ARB
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40.16
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-0.04
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Google
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GOOG
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584.35
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-15.90
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Beasley*
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BBGI
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4.48
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+0.31
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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20.11
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+0.18
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| CBS CI. B |
CBS |
 |
22.88
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-0.21
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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7.49
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+0.10
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| CBS CI. A |
CBSa |
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22.90
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-0.19
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Lincoln Natl.
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LNC
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49.65
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-0.54
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| Citadel* |
CDL |
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1.52 |
unch |
Radio One, Cl. A
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ROIA
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1.68
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+0.03
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Clear Channel*
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CCU
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32.14
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-1.41
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Radio One, Cl. D*
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ROIAK
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1.70
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+0.06
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Cox Radio*
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CXR
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10.89
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-0.05
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Regent*
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RGCI
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1.32
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-0.03
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Cumulus*
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CMLS
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5.43
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-0.19
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Saga Commun.*
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SGA
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5.97
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-0.14
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Debut Bcg.
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DBTB
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0.95
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-0.02
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Salem Comm.*
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SALM
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3.93
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-0.01
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Disney
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DIS
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28.12
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-0.39
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Sirius Sat. Radio
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SIRI
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2.65
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-0.18
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Emmis*
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EMMS
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2.62
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+0.02
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Spanish Bcg.*
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SBSA
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1.50
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-0.01
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Entercom*
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ETM
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11.00
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+0.34
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Westwood One*
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WON
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1.58
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-0.18
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Entravision
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EVC
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6.02
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-0.27
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XM Sat. Radio
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XMSR
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10.59
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-0.59
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Fisher
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FSCI
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33.15
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-0.06
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-
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-
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-
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-
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-
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*Component of the RBR Radio Index
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]
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Below the Fold
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Executive Comment
Fred Jacobs assesses
Jim Boyle's P1 advice to radio...
Ad Business Report
Radio ads airing
In eight states from Ron Paul. You on the buy?...
Washington Business Report
14 AM apps hit the skids
FCC did not receive necessary paperwork for Auction 84...
Media Markets & Money
Price revealed in Ohio
Five Clear Channel stations to BAS Broadcasting...
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Stations for Sale
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 Market your Stations For Sale
in our daily epapers.
Contact
Jim Carnegie
[email protected]
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Radio Media Moves
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 Mix upped in Miami
Beasley Broadcast Group announced the promotion of Eddie "Mix" Bahamon to Assistant Program Director at "Power 96" WPOW-FM Miami. Eddie started as an on-air mixer at WPOW in the late '80s and became Music Director in 1998.
Talan to Univision
Monica Talan has joined Univision Communications as Vice President of Corporate Communications, making her responsible for managing the company's strategic communications and media relations efforts. Talan spent more than 10 years at Fleishman-Hillard, most recently serving as Senior Vice President and Partner.
 Afternoon driver
Jeff Koch will join Border Media Partners' KTSA-AM San Antonia as afternoon drive personality, effective February 4th, coming from KURV-AM in the Rio Grande Valley. KTSA also announced that its is expanding its news department, adding reporters, and has named Liz Ruiz and Brent Boller to share the responsibilities of News Director.
Dielectric adds Popescu
Dielectric Communications announced Catalin Popescu has joined on as an application/proposal engineer. A vet of the broadcast industry since 1988, Popescu is now responsible for the preparation of technical specifications for TV, FM, and mobile media RF systems for Dielectric's customers worldwide. Popescu joins from LARCAN Inc., where he was manager of the project management and application engineering department.
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More News Headlines
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Kidnapped reporter back on the air
Alan Johnston, the BBC reporter who was kidnapped in Gaza last year, is the new presenter of "From Our Own Correspondent" for BBC World Service. His first program airs this weekend on Saturday and Sunday, January 26 and 27.
Clear Channel Spectacolor bookends Vegas Strip
Clear Channel Outdoor's Spectacolor Division announced the launch of full motion video and sound billboards at Las Vegas' Miracle Mile Shops. Over 15,000 square feet of digital advertising space is available at this heavily-trafficked shopping and entertainment destination. While the majority of outdoor signage on the Las Vegas Strip is available specifically for on-premise advertising, Spectacolor's digital platforms located at the Fashion Show Mall, and now at Miracle Mile Shops offer the only spectacular branding presence for national and local advertisers in this powerhouse market of business and holiday travelers.
The cross-utility
of sales advice
Sales consultancy Associates Interactive has taken note of soft holiday sales in the retail electronics field, and provided some pointers to pick things up in the face of an even tougher economy in the near future. Electronics retailers face a critical task this year, with the DTV conversion looming (which should be a shot in the arm for business). And the points could also apply to broadcast time sales. AI says as consumers hold more tightly onto their cash, sales associates will require more expertise -- "consumers will still pay a premium for a consultative purchasing experience." Technical knowledge must be combined with conversational skills, skills which can be taught for those without the natural gift of gab. Associates should be experts in at least one key part of the business, rather than have limited knowledge of many. Associates should bundle complete solutions. Finally, associate expertise should be a key marketing point for the business as a whole.
RBR observation: What you don't do is lop off the entire top of your sales staff as a cost cutting measure, as Circuit City did last year. Consumer electronics are not our main area of focus (and AI warns us not to worry to much about our areas of limited knowledge), but that move was widely criticized by just about all observers, and we recall that the retailer spent most of the year scrambling to recover. For retailers, the need for DTV and other digital specialists is utterly obvious. For broadcasters, the message is to make sure sales associates understand what types of business would be a good fit for the station, and have enough knowledge, with support from the full staff, to get a client's campaign from conception to customers walking in the door, and every step in between.
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RBR Radar 2008
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Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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This week in Time
We know where we are today reading RBR but how did we get here? RBR's new weekly radio business brief gives a quick scan on where radio has been. 4 years ago -- 2004, Issue 11How Radio stocks fared: Wall Street advance leaves broadcasters behind. Citadel 20.40, Clear Channel 44.73, Cumulus 20.63, Emmis 26.63, Entercom 50.50 - 1 year ago -- 2007, Issue 14 XM lawsuit to proceed. RBR observation: Think this doesn't matter to AM and FM stations? Think again. How Radio stocks fared: higher, earnings a mixed bag. Citadel 10.19, Clear Channel 36.50, Cumulus 10.35, Emmis 8.65, Entercom 28.11
RBR observation: You want to see price stock shock see this issue of RBR
01/22/08 RBR #14
NBC's Zucker reaffirms
upfront dump
NBCU CEO Jeff Zucker has all but set in stone what he's been hinting at recently: NBC will not be doing an upfront this year, and doubts are big for years going forward. NBC and other companies have already used the strike to terminate millions of dollars of long-term production contracts. "Things like that are all vestiges of an era that's gone by and won't return," Zucker told the Financial Times.
01/22/08 TVBR #14
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RBR Classifieds
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Hard finding that key person
to fill the important position at your organization? RBR Classifieds, Results with Service. Contact April McLynn at [email protected]
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