|
Radio News ®
|
|
|
Will the Cumulus buyout get done?
 We've heard much discussion of that question and Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller notes that the current stock price indicates "strong doubts" on Wall Street about a closing. But whether or not the going private transaction gets done at the 11.75 per share price announced last July, Miller says it is likely that Cumulus will be taken private in 2008. The analyst says the implied takeout price of the 1.3 billion bucks buyout is 11 times anticipated 2008 EBITDA, which was "not aggressive" relative to other 2005-2007 deals. However, since the July announcement radio trading multiples have contracted by 2.3 times. Still, Miller says Cumulus has some good stories to tell in 2008, with mid- to small-markets healthier than the big ones, political ads coming in, an NYC move-in and easier comps than some other companies.
"We still think Cumulus could very likely be private in 2008. The Dickey family can roll 60 million plus in equity. Cumulus' CFO negotiated a bank line in June 2007 that permits Cumulus to borrow up to 8.5x EBITDA at attractive rates," Miller told clients. He sees three possible scenarios for the company to go private this year: 1) the original 11.75 per share deal with Merrill Lynch Global Private Equity happens; 2) the MLPGE deal gets re-cut to 10.75; or 3) MLPGE balks and the company uses its 8.5x EBITDA borrowing capacity to repurchase its 27.75 mil share float. The latter assumes that the Dickey family and original investor Bank of America roll in their equity. "All three options point to a privatization; Cumulus' current lows may be a buying opportunity. If no 'privatization options' are ultimately done, the stock should trade at 4.75-5.00, in-line with comps," Miller concluded.
 Will private equity
go under the microscope?
On the whole, it was a typical, uneventful January FCC Open Meeting yesterday (1/17/08). The first annual edition of these monthly events generally serves as a review of the preceding year (as in other years, we learned that much was accomplished due to the hard work of dedicated staff). But it did feature some navel gazing on the topic of broadcast finance which may be worth a look. Private equity funding has always been available to broadcast companies, and participation on Wall Street has often been the exception rather than the rule. But that is not stopping FCC Commissioner Michael Copps (D) from wondering about their fitness of private equity funds as a steward of our national airwaves. Will this become an issue if a Democratic administration takes over Washington next year? In comments after one collection of execs held forth, Copps noted the sudden spate of private equity deals being waved through the Commission. Are they good or bad, he wondered, and said the problem is that we just don't know. He then cited the Great Depression which began in 1929, saying it was a result of corporate excess combined with a lack of accountability and oversight, and worried that we may again be heading down that path. He said we should be making a better effort to understand these things, and expressed his hope that such studies would be undertaken in 2008.
RBR observation: If not 2008, why not 2009? If Copps, Adelstein or another like-minded Democrat takes over the FCC's center chair, they could certainly kick off such a project. However, we would point out two things which we hope will ease Copps' mind at least a little. First, at a time when broadcast companies are having difficulty posting healthy revenue results, it is a good thing for people with cash to come in and put some capital into the business in order to better serve the public. Second, since the "hardware" of a broadcast company -- the broadcast station -- is licensed by the government, any and all transactions are available for regulator scrutiny. Say for example that XXX Broadcasting tries to sell a group of stations to a loosely-independent company like ZZZ Broadcasting, a sham corporation which is in fact traceable back to XXX, in order to put false profit on the books and jack up the stock price. Such a move would be spotted instantly by the very FCC Copps works for as currently structured. Corporate malfeasance is much more difficult to pull off for companies public or private that operate in a government-licensed arena.
|
|
|
Make it eight in a row
Radio's string of down months is expected to go to eight when the RAB reports revenue stats for December and CL King analyst Jim Boyle's latest estimate is that the revenue decline will be 2%, which is right in line with the Wall Street consensus. That's hardly good news, though. So, what should radio companies be doing to get the business back on track?
 Here's Boyle's advice: "Can a different revenue stream start and sustain a radio rebound? Yes, by monetizing the P-1 listener. Radio groups fetch about 2%-3% of revenue from internet initiatives, but that hasn't stopped 2007 from being a down revenue year. So what else is out there? We would strongly recommend that radio look to the second of its two constituencies. Not just its advertisers, its audience! Radio's most loyal, engaged listeners are dubbed P-1 listeners. We believe radio should sell small local content and branded items to its biggest fans. Consumers have become highly trained by eBay, iTunes, Amazon and others to frequently purchase impulse or planned items via the ease of well-established micro-payments. There will be many failed attempts by Radio to monetize listeners, but potentially some large successes. Most people forget that the cable network that allowed cable to garner non-subscription revenue from the subscriber, Home Shopping Channel, started as a Florida radio show. We also believe radio station personnel and younger employees are more likely to come up with successes than the corporate or top executives. We bet you that no P-1 would ask, what is the cost-per-point of a daily e-mail of the best jokes (on-air and off-air) of the Morning Zoo DJs? Or what is the cost-per-thousand of a station logo baseball cap? Or what is the AQH rating of a mobile flash alert of the latest club event? Radio should establish a second revenue stream or resign itself to being the 'new Newspapers.' A second consumer-fee revenue stream would bolster the industry and excite investors and it could even make radio a creative and fun business again, in our opinion."
Is Boyle on to something, or not? We invite your feedback to [email protected].
Seattle newspaper questions unknown localism rules
We know that back on 12/18/07, the FCC's Commissioners agreed to open up a rulemaking which would detail reporting requirements and program quotas -- or something -- to assure that all broadcast stations are taking the FCC's mandate to promote localism, diversity and competition seriously. Reporter Bill Virgin of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer pointed out in a recent article that as yet, nobody knows what this proceeding is going to entail. The calls for a localism mandate are largely in response to a public against consolidated ownership, which is believed to lead to bland, repetitive, homogenized programming, exacerbated further by widespread use of network and syndicated programming fare. Nonetheless, Virgin warns that it could very well change the way local radio stations operate, and it could also be in for a rather nasty dust-up when it comes into proximity with the First Amendment.
RBR observation: It is well-known that the public participating in the outcry is loud. Whether it constitutes even a fraction of a minority of the vast pool of regular radio listeners is a matter of conjecture. And forget the public. There is no shortage of industry professionals who loudly decry the sorry state of radio programming. Still, the goal of every commercial station is to attract an audience; indeed, an audience is the lifeblood of a station, the only thing it has to sell. We remember back in the 1990s when for the first time we could hear Don Imus in Washington. We all sampled his program. Some of us stayed with it; others preferred a truly local program in the morning, and/or simply didn't care for Mr. Imus and let him take a hike. But as local residents, we had an option to listen to an iconic New York radio warhorse for the first time ever. Were we being served as local listeners? Well, yeah. Say a citizen ignores all the local talent available on the dial to tune in a home shopping channel originating 500 miles away. Is the station serving the local population? Well, yeah, it is. If we were programming a station, going up against any out-of-towner, or any network/syndicated program, we'd like to think we'd blow it out of the water by knowing and superserving our local citizens. But you can't say the other stations aren't serving local people, in their own way. If someone is freely tuning in, their being served. We understand and even sympathize the FCC's goal, but it's not something they or any government entity have the tools to accomplish.
|
|
|
|
|
Broadcast Electronics and iTunes...
|
Advertisement
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Friday Intelligence Brief |
Station trading in the Third Quarter of 2007
Few industry movers and shakers are as handcuffed to the regulatory environment in the same way that M&A players in the broadcast field are. Radio deregulation that was included in Telecom 1996 spawned an Oklahoma Land Rush for radio stations in the top markets. At the same time, the lack of any meaningful dereg for television trading put it into the doldrums.
As a result, top-market radio trading remains becalmed. Meanwhile, a couple of years ago, traders sitting on TV properties gave up waiting for the FCC finally started making deals again, and it was a good thing, as the FCC declined once and for all to offer any dereg to the industry last December. So after years of radio dominance in station trading, television is taking over. And the big money is coming not so much from stations changing hands, but from station groups retreating from Wall Street and going private.
Head over to RBR.COM and take a look at how the numbers have
been shaking down from Q3 2006 through Q3 2007.
Note: Our website is unofficially open as RBR.com is a constant work in progress. Take a peak and browse around but bear with us as a few sections are still being modified. Besides our Intelligence Briefs and daily news, check out our archives--including every RBR epaper that has been published. The official worldwide announcement will be soon, until then enjoy your exclusive look at the new WWW.RBR.COM.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Wall Street Business Report TM |
Moody's puts negative outlook on Citadel
Moody's Investors Service said it has affirmed Citadel Broadcasting Corporation's Ba3 Corporate Family Rating and the Ba3 rating on its senior secured credit facility. However, the credit rating agency said its outlook for Citadel was revised to "negative" from "stable," reflecting the weakness in the operating performance of both the acquired ABC Radio business and the existing Citadel stations, which Moody's said has resulted in weaker than expected credit metrics.
|
|
|
|
|
Ad Business Report TM
|
Eight ways DR Radio enhances DRTV campaigns
Jeff Small, CEO, and Brett Astor, Vice President of Strategic Media recently wrote a paper addressing the synergy or DR Radio and DRTV campaigns: "Considering or currently running a DRTV advertising campaign? Here's why you should read this paper. Direct response television (DRTV) advertising can be very effective at driving profitable sales. However the high cost of creating and modifying the ads and the lead times associated with DRTV leave room for another more nimble medium to serve a significant purpose. Radio fills that void extremely well, and done right it can significantly enhance the profitability of any DRTV effort. DRTV is the bread and butter of any huge success. Why? Because you can make the most money the fastest via TV. It's also the most expensive and risky channel - so one has to consider the risk/reward tradeoff. As you'll learn, radio plays the role of "risk minimizer" - that's why including radio in your marketing efforts is such a smart business move. We routinely work with DRTV agencies to craft a strategy that allows radio to provide the most strategic value to a DRTV campaign. Below you'll find out why the most successful, most profitable DRTV campaigns also include radio advertising.
| Read the eight ways |
|
|
|
|
| Media Business Report TM |
 Life is different at the
new Tribune Company
Folks at Tribune Company have gotten their new employee handbook - and it is so different from anything seen in the past that it has been discussed at length in an article in the Los Angeles Times, one of the newspapers owned by Tribune. "Rule #1: Use your best judgment. Rule #2: See Rule 1" the handbook begins. Some of you may find that familiar. Yes, it is indeed the handiwork of Randy Michaels, pictured, who became CEO for Broadcasting and Interactive when Sam Zell took the helm at Tribune. The new employee manual is about a third the length of its predecessor at Tribune. The new Zell edition is written in plain English, rather than legalese, and mixes in some one liners with the serious stuff to make employees more inclined to actually read it. As the new guidelines were issued to Tribune employees, Zell told them in a letter that it outlines "our company's new core values," describing it as "a performance-oriented culture." But he also told them that the new handbook "reminds us not to take ourselves too seriously, and to have some fun."
|
|
|
|
| Media Markets & Money TM |
EMF spins Denver noncom
Educational Media Foundation has two stations in Denver -- it really only needs one; and Colorado Public Radio has one station, but it would like to broadcast fulltime Classical and fulltime News/Info. The two non-profits have come together in a mutually-beneficial deal which will give CPR its station and infuse EMF with cash. The result will be the transfer of KFDN-FM (88.1 MHz, licensed to Lakewood CO) to CPR. According to noncom brokerage specialist Public Radio Capital, which represented the buyer, EMF will get 8.2M cash for the station. It will also hang on to the call letters. EMF will continue to operate in the market on 99.1 MHz. CPR President Max Wycisk says the new 88.1 stick will operate as Classical KVOD-FM, moving over from 90.1, while KCFR-AM will migrate with its News programming from 1340 kHZ to 90.1 as KCFR-FM. The AM will be put up for sale.
|
|
|
|
| Washington Business Report TM |
 FEC wins court battle
A film called "Hillary: The Movie" is ready to enter the fray of the 2008 campaign, and its backers/creators want to make it available on demand on the internet. To drive traffic, they wish to purchase air time. The Federal Election Commission has argued in court that the film is effectively an piece of electioneering since it involves an active candidate for federal office, and that any advertising promoting it must conform to the rules for standard political advertising. That means it cannot be aired, without funding properly acquired and reported, within 30 days of a primary or within 60 days of a general election. The backers of the film, Citizens United, wanted to the film to be available whenever via VOD, and did not want to disclose financial backers, but the District Court for the DC Circuit sided with the FEC on this one.
RBR observation: This is reminiscent of the decision by Sinclair to run a documentary in 2004 that many believed was a thinly veiled political attack on John Kerry in favor of George Bush. Sinclair ended up reworking the program. With this case, it would appear that the FEC is on its guard for any attempts to slip something through the cracks by allegedly mislabeling a political communication as something else.
|
|
|
|
| Entertainment Business Report TM |
Wendy Williams signs with Westwood One
The Wendy Williams Experience, hosted by the "Queen of Urban Radio", Wendy Williams will make its Westwood One debut 2/4 announced Thomas Beusse, Westwood's new CEO. The daily four-hour syndicated program, moved over from Superadio, features exclusive entertainment news, celebrity gossip, advice, listener phone calls, and candid interviews with special guests. The Westwood One debut of the show marks the first time the program will be heard in Los Angeles, airing on KDAY-FM.
 SBS launches
"El Circo"
Spanish Broadcasting System announced that El Gangster and Funky Joe have agreed to "revolutionize" radio programming with a new multimedia experience; "El Circo". The show, staged within a TV Studio, features high definition cameras, streaming video and audio live - via the Internet. The show will air mornings on WMEG-FM and WEGM-FM - LA MEGA 106.9 FM in San Juan, PR and 95.1 FM in Mayagüez. "El Circo" will deal with day-to-day reality issues and general topics of interest. It will be completely interactive and have direct contact with its radio audience.
CBS Radio News details Super Tuesday coverage
With so much at stake in the Super Tuesday primaries this year CBS Radio News, for the first time, will offer its affiliates continuous coverage of the latest news and results on 2/5, beginning at 8:00 PM, ET, through midnight. CBS National News Correspondent Dan Raviv will anchor the program from campaign HQ in NYC and will be joined by reporters at all the major candidates' HQs. cbsnews.com will simulcast. CBS Radio News will also supply short-form special reports four times an hour: at :20, :31, :50 and :00 on Tuesday starting at 7:20 PM, through 12:50 AM and the following morning at 5:20 AM through 11:50 AM. Additionally, affiliates will receive unanchored feeds of the candidates' concession and victory speeches, as well as the opportunity to avail themselves of one-on-one interviews with correspondents and political experts that can be integrated into their own local programming. Extra newsfeeds containing election elements will also be provided on Super Tuesday at 10:35 PM and 11:35 PM. Affiliates may use any of the CBS-supplied content on their websites or HD channels as well as on their broadcasts.
|
|
|
|
| Internet Business Report TM |
 Liquid Compass expands ad replacement offering
Liquid Compass, a provider of streaming and web services to the radio industry, is now a certified Ando Media, LLC reseller/partner and began offering their Ad Injector ad replacement software to clients as of 1/1. Liquid Compass' clients now have a choice between two of the industry's leading ad replacement products: Ando Media's Ad Injector ad replacement software and Spacial Audio's Stream Overlay Software. "We are pleased to be working with Liquid Compass and to offer their clients the advanced functionality and broad capability inherent in our Ad Injector Platform," said Robert Maccini, Ando Media's CEO. Ando Media's Ad Injector Platform integrates Ando Media's patent pending Ad Injection and Ad Detection capabilities with Webcast Metrics Real Time Audience Measurement providing broadcasters the opportunity to insert, detect, and measure Internet ad impressions. Ad Injector integrates into Liquid Compass's custom Silverlight, Windows Media and Flash Media players and also integrates with TrafficMyAds, a managed service that allows customers to send all ad traffic requests directly to the Liquid Compass team. This is ideal for those clients who prefer not to handle in-stream ad trafficking on their own.
|
|
|
|
| TVBR TV News |
Over-air homes looking to remain free
Not all consumers are sticking to over-the-air television just because they can't afford to subscribe to an MVPD. And a sizable number intend to remain MVPD-free in order to get free service from "wireless television." In fact, Association of Public Television Stations (APTS) says the digital revolution may be a stunning shot in the arm for over-air service. According to the APTS survey, 43% of current over-the-air only households would remain that way by choice by acquiring either a new digital receiver or a digital-to-analog down-converter. That's against only 12% who would sign up for cable or satellite MVPD service. The poll also turned up evidence that there is still a sizable bloc of citizens who aren't yet up to speed on the transition. 25% said they don't know what steps they'll be taking, and 17.6% of that group said they'll postpone a decision or do nothing. And of the citizens who are aware the transition is coming, 77% said they have no idea why the government has mandated it. "It appears that the government's positive message regarding the reasons for the transition has fallen on deaf ears," said APTS President/CEO John Lawson. Still, he saw positives in the survey. "This data indicates that free, over-the-air television may be set for a big comeback," he observed. "Many people see broadcasting as a dinosaur technology, but we broadcasters have the opportunity to reposition it as wireless TV and reach new audiences."
TVBR observation: Most of the presidential candidates have been at it for over a year now, and there remains a large pool of undecided voters out there. A lot of people will put off a decision until the time to make it draws near. Also, to that the fact that most of the educational campaigns are just now getting started. We expect most people will know what's coming down the pike by the time summer rolls around -- and sales of DTV sets will skyrocket, especially during the holiday gift-giving season in Q4.
|
|
|
|
| Transactions |
720K WZFN-AM Fargo ND-Moorhead MN (Dilworth MN) from Brantley Broadcast Associates LLC (Joan K. Reynolds) to SMAHH Communications LLC (J. Scott Hennen). 35K escrow, balance in cash at closing. [File date 12/20/07.]
200K KIIQ-FM Limon CO from Limon Broadcasting LLC (Roger L. Hoppe) to Percheron Associates LLC (Ronda S. Canter). 25K down payment, 75K cash at closing, 100K note due upon completion of upgrade CP. [File date 12/20/07.]
|
|
|
|
| Stock Talk |
Recession fears grip Wall Street
A report from the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia showed a sharp downturn in manufacturing activity. That added fuel to the recession fire on Wall Street and sent stocks lower. The Dow Industrials closed down 307 points, or 2.5%, at 12,159.
Radio stocks were lower as well. The RBR Radio Index was off 0.587, or 0.587, to 82.326. Two strong gainers kept the index from a larger drop. Cumulus rose 9.8% as Bear Stearns analyst Vic Miller sent out a report saying he expected the going private transaction to go to closing in 2008. Also, Westwood One rose 3.5%. The biggest decliners were Radio One, with its Class D down 8% and Class A off 6.6%, Regent, down 8%, and Lincoln National, down 7.9%.
|
|
|
|
| Radio Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Thursday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
|
Arbitron*
|
ARB
|
|
40.55
|
-0.81
|
Google
|
GOOG
|
|
600.79
|
-15.16
|
|
Beasley*
|
BBGI
|
|
5.17
|
+0.43
|
Hearst-Argyle
|
HTV
|
|
19.90
|
-0.08
|
| CBS CI. B |
CBS |
 |
23.30
|
-0.15
|
Journal Comm.
|
JRN
|
|
7.45
|
-0.21
|
| CBS CI. A |
CBSa |
|
23.31
|
-0.13
|
Lincoln Natl.
|
LNC
|
|
51.58
|
-4.45
|
| Citadel* |
CDL |
|
1.64 |
+0.02 |
Radio One, Cl. A
|
ROIA
|
|
1.85
|
-0.13
|
|
Clear Channel*
|
CCU
|
|
34.15
|
-0.64
|
Radio One, Cl. D*
|
ROIAK
|
|
1.84
|
-0.16
|
|
Cox Radio*
|
CXR
|
|
11.18
|
-0.08
|
Regent*
|
RGCI
|
|
1.39
|
-0.12
|
|
Cumulus*
|
CMLS
|
|
6.05
|
+0.54
|
Saga Commun.*
|
SGA
|
|
6.27
|
+0.02
|
|
Debut Bcg.
|
DBTB
|
|
0.97
|
unch
|
Salem Comm.*
|
SALM
|
|
3.98
|
-0.15
|
|
Disney
|
DIS
|
|
28.77
|
-1.06
|
Sirius Sat. Radio
|
SIRI
|
|
2.69
|
-0.06
|
|
Emmis*
|
EMMS
|
|
2.72
|
-0.18
|
Spanish Bcg.*
|
SBSA
|
|
1.56
|
-0.06
|
|
Entercom*
|
ETM
|
|
11.27
|
+0.02
|
Westwood One*
|
WON
|
|
1.78
|
+0.06
|
|
Entravision
|
EVC
|
|
6.71
|
-0.22
|
XM Sat. Radio
|
XMSR
|
|
10.22
|
-0.35
|
|
Fisher
|
FSCI
|
|
33.51
|
-1.00
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
*Component of the RBR Radio Index
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bounceback
|
 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]
|
|
|
Below the Fold
|
|
Ad Business Report
Eight ways DR Radio
Enhances DRTV campaigns addressing the synergy...
Washington Business Report
FEC wins court battle
A film called "Hillary: The Movie" is ready to enter the fray...
Media Markets & Money
EMF spins Denver noncom
it really only needs one as the result, transfer of KFDN-FM...
TVBR -TV News
Over-air homes
Looking to remain free...
|
|
|
Stations for Sale
|
 Market your Stations For Sale
in our daily epapers.
Contact
Jim Carnegie
[email protected]
|
|
|
Radio Media Moves
|
What ever happened to John Catlett?
The veteran CBS Radio manager has been working overseas in recent years. Now he has been named COO of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), the US government-funded radio operation based in Prague. Catlett managed FM radio stations for CBS in Chicago and New York City. Since 1984 he has worked outside the US to develop new stations in the North Sea, Ireland, and London, and the Metromedia International stations in Eastern Europe and Russia.
NAB staffs up in Washington
Marsha MacBride, NAB's EVP/Legal and Regulatory Affairs, has fresh blood in the form of Erin Dozier, who will serve as associate general council, and Laurie Knight, EVP/Government Relations is also getting reinforcements in the form of Myra Dandridge, who will serve as director. Dozier has stints with the FCC and the DC legal community on her resume; Dandridge was formerly a staffer with the Congressional Black Caucus.
NFL drafts Noto
Goldman Sachs senior media analyst Anthony Noto is leaving Wall Street to become CFO of the National Football League, effective February 24th. Does he know the game as well as the finances? You bet. Noto was a linebacker at West Point.
|
|
|
More News Headlines
|
Quincy Jones
to be honored
Entertainment industry icon Quincy Jones will receive the Celebration of Service to America Leadership Award from the NAB Education Foundation at the 10th annual Celebration of Service to America Gala on June 9th. The Leadership Award, NABEF's highest honor, is presented to an individual who has performed extraordinary public service in bettering the lives of others. Jones is being recognized for his humanitarian work in establishing the Listen Up Foundation and the We Are the Future Foundation, both dedicated to helping underprivileged youth.
|
|
|
RBR Radar 2008
|
|
Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
|
Arbitron MRC meeting 1/22
There's a meeting next week (1/22) in which Arbitron is coming to present to the MRC the latest progress on improving PPM sample data and more. The MRC subcommittee invite email reads: "The purpose of this letter is to let you know about the upcoming meeting of the MRC PPM Audit Subcommittee on Jan. 22 in New York. We are encouraging all members of the subcommittee to attend....Over the past several months, Arbitron has been working closely with the MRC to address concerns about PPM sample performance in the Houston, Philadelphia and New York panels. At the Jan. 22nd meeting, we will be presenting our plans for improving SPI [sample performance index], compliance rates and representation of the younger demo groups....
RBR observation: At a similar Arbitron meeting in December, the question was asked, "Will the numbers change?" An agency buyer tells us Arbitron said it doesn't believe the numbers are going to change significantly-even if they get greater younger participation. Why? Because the sample that did respond-they say is enough representation to produce the numbers. From a practical standpoint, they have to eventually increase the participation in these demo groups by X amount (whatever gets agreed upon) to keep the stations happy. It's a simple as that. The problem is the younger part of the demo is not representative in the diary sample either. They are changing their habits (iPods, texting, etc) and that's what has created the problem. We may never get the sample size back up unless more youth start listening to radio again-and earlier. Internet/mobile listening of local stations could be included in the overall ratings if stations weren't forced to replace the ads.
01/17/08 RBR #11
Bombs away on GMA
Actress Diane Keaton let loose an f-bomb in an interview with Diane Sawyer on ABC's Tuesday 1/15/08 edition of Good Morning America. The network was able to bleep it out for network feeds to other time zones, but it went over the air unedited in the East, its time zone of origin. The Parents Television Council immediately called for punitive action against this and another incident it cited -- raised middle fingers during a segment of CBS's 60 Minutes which aired 12/20/07 -- and has called on its membership to file complaints with the FCC.
TVBR observation: Wow. Diane Keaton. Who would've suspected? That's the thing about this -- you just never know who the next miscreant is going to be. The last celebrity to go blue in this manner, to the best of our recollection, was another unlikely candidate: Chris Matthews. It's not like some antisocial grunge star with an attitude and a face full of metal took advantage of an open mic. The simple fact remains that such incidents are extremely rare, given the massive total of broadcast hours each and every day. These incidents do not lead to rampant copycat incidents -- you will not be reading about Susan Sarandon, Jodi Foster and Michelle Pfeiffer charging onto America's morning shows tomorrow to follow suit. And we defy anybody to point to a single minor example of societal decay that is directly attributable to Diane Keaton's quote. PTC is free to wring their hands and read the end of civilization as we know it into this. And we're free to ignore them. PTC can get bent out of shape over a word; we have more important issues to consider.
01/17/08 TVBR #11
TVBR note: Many emailed us and wondered exactly what Ms Keaton said, well here ya go as Keaton was criticizing her own thin lips and admiring Sawyer's lips. - "I'd like to have lips like that. Then I wouldn't have worked on my fxxxing personality. Oh, excuse me, my personality." The video is on Youtube.
Crystal ball shows
lots of station trading
The brokers of Media Services Group have issued their station trading outlook for this year. MSG predicts that small to medium market radio properties will trade at 7-9 times broadcast cash flow during 2008, and 9-11 times BCF for larger markets
RBR observation: Obviously the MSG brokers have a vested interest in seeing lots of station trading, but there is logic to their forecast. The credit crunch caused by the subprime mortgage debacle has mostly impacted very large deals - say over 100 million bucks and especially into the billions - which banks have to syndicate. But there has been no shortage of lending available for deals in the tens of millions. So the holdup in the station trading market has been the gap between bid and ask. When will that gap narrow? The MSG guys say the second half of 2008 will see would-be sellers adjust to the new pricing reality.
01/16/08 RBR #10
2008 industry forecasts:
The good, the bad and the ugly
TVBR asked major industry organization heads in our annual survey for their 2008 forecasts, insights, solutions and ideas. 2008 promises to be a busy year for these organizations. IAB is grappling with keeping the FTC from regulating too much of its behavioral targeting abilities. Radio is still working to monetize HD and keep the dollars coming in. The TVB has to deal with less robust programming options from the networks due to the strike; and most everyone is in the midst of further capitalizing on digital and new technologies. We asked about everything from what they're recommending to constituents to whether they expect more growth this year in local or national.
RBR observation: What is the outlook for 2008 - See their forecast in this special page report of RBR.
01/16/08 RBR #10
Penny stocks proliferate
Radio stocks continue to take a beating on Wall Street. Both Beasley and Salem last week fell into penny stock territory, joining quite a few other radio companies. Who else is in danger of doing the same? 2007 may have been the year of penny stocks for the radio sector, as we noted in the Intelligence Brief on last year's stock market activity released on Friday, but the "year of woe," as we described it, is certainly continuing into 2008. Regent, Emmis, Radio One, Westwood One and Citadel all saw their stock prices fall below the five bucks mark over the course of 2007. Many pension managers and mutual funds aren't permitted to own penny stocks, so when a stock dips below that barrier, a round of selling often follows, just accelerating the stock price decline. Salem crossed the magic barrier last Wednesday and Beasley followed on Thursday. Despite the pending 11.50 per share bid to take the company private, Cumulus! Media is the radio stock next closest to the line, recently trading below six bucks. Saga Communications, likewise, has been below six of late.
01/15/08 RBR #9
|
|
|
RBR Classifieds
|
Hard finding that key person
to fill the important position at your organization? RBR Classifieds, Results with Service. Contact April McLynn at [email protected]
|
 |
|
|
|
|
