RBR's Daily Morning Epaper

Volume 22, Issue 6, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Monday Morning January 10th, 2005

Radio News®

Analysts see Emmis' guidance as weak
After listening to what Emmis CEO Jeff Smulyan had to say in his quarterly conference calls (1/7/05 RBR #5), a couple of Wall Street analysts told clients that the company's guidance for the current quarter - - that both TV and radio would be up 3% - - seemed a bit on the light side. At SG Cowen, James Marsh said the radio projection was ahead of his expectations for the radio industry for the period - - 2% - - but still below the 3.6% he had been expecting of Emmis. Marsh made no mention of the TV guidance, but noted that growth the previous quarter was ahead of his expectations, while Emmis' television group will now face a "difficult hill to climb" in replacing 300 million in political revenue in the coming fiscal year. Wachovia Securities analyst Jim Boyle had a different view, although he came to the same overall conclusion that guidance for the current quarter seemed light. Boyle was expecting 5% growth from Emmis' TV group, so he was disappointed by the 3% guidance. On the other hand, the 3% guidance for radio was ahead of his 2.5% estimate. "Overall, with the disappointing Q4 radio industry monthly revenue results to date and the uneven, lackluster anecdotal early '05 bookings thus far, we do not see much in the way of a significant upturn or catalysts in the near term for Emmis' core segment's industry," Boyle concluded.

Liberman IPO slammed by Forbes
Liberman Broadcasting's planned IPO has been on hold for months, but it nevertheless is the subject of a negative review in Forbes. The article doesn't deny that Hispanic media is hot, but says Liberman is "a small company coming late in the cycle and it won't add much to investors' portfolio." Ouch! The Forbes article by Scott Reeves notes two negatives about the Liberman IPO - - proceeds will be used to pay down debt (IPO buyers prefer expansion for growth) and company insiders are selling some of their shares in the IPO. "This deal won't pop on the opening," Reeves concludes. The article lists several successful 1990s IPOs in the ethnic broadcasting sector, including Radio One, Univision, Spanish Broadcasting System and Entravision, but also noted that all but Univsion are now trading below their IPO prices. Liberman owns both TV and radio stations in California and Texas.

Indecency wars: He said, he said
Everyone knows where the general red-state/blue-state battle lines are drawn, but the boundaries are much harder to distinguish in the battle over broadcast indecency. This is one issue where liberals and conservatives are allied as often as they are at one another's throats, while at the same time they carry on intramural squabbles within their own ideological grouping. Casein point - is the virtual exchanges between media watchers at a pair of conservative organizations.

RBR observation: We're intrigued by the numbers involved here. Bozell points out that 25M-27M people, the average measured audience for "Housewives," works out to only one out of every ten Americans - - the vast majority do not watch the show. Bozell says there are 1M members of PTC. Using Bozell's own reasoning, this means that 294 out of 295 Americans are not members of PTC and are generally not participating in PTC's FCC complaint campaign. For most Americans, "Housewives" just is not that big a deal. And if 100% of Bozell's membership should send in a complaint, the FCC should not feel compelled to act on that body of comment, which represents only a third of a percent - - 00.3% - - of the nation. | More... |

Tribune Co. dumps Armstrong Williams
Conservative pundit Armstrong Williams no longer has a nationally-distributed newspaper column, but he still has media access via his self-syndicated radio and TV programs. Tribune Media Services stopped distribution of Williams' newspaper column, "The Right Side with Armstrong Williams," after it was disclosed that he had been paid 240,000 by the US Department of Education to promote the Bush Administration's No Child Left Behind Law. In an interview with CNN, Williams confirmed the payment, but said it was for advertising time - - that a company he owns taped a 60-second spot with Education Secretary Ron Paige, which then aired in his radio and TV shows. But, repeating a comment he made to USA Today, which broke the story, Williams admitted, "I understand how some people would feel that it was unethical." He also told the Associated Press, "My judgment was not the best. I wouldn't do it again and I learned from it." Williams' radio program, "The Right Side," airs on only a handful of stations, but his TV show of the same name has a wider reach, including several stations owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group and Liberty Broadcasting, a cable/satellite channel affiliated with Jerry Falwell. The Washington Post reported that TV One, the cable joint venture of Radio One and Comcast, is evaluating whether to continue airing another TV program that features Williams, "On Point." Williams interviewed Secretary Paige on that program last year.

They said it in 2004: July
As the old year exits stage right and the New Year makes its way to center stage, we thought we'd string together a compendium of quotes which appeared in RBR/TVBR during the past year. Today: Democratic VP candidate John Edwards stated, "We don't need to wait and see the effects of consolidation on television, because we already have heard those effects on the radio." It was said in July 2004. | More... |

Views from the CES
We came across some interesting comments made in conjunction with the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) which we thought we'd share with our readers. First, Jeff Jarvis used his BuzzMachine blog to note that FCC Chairman Michael Powell took advantage of an appearance there to underscore the recent FCC decision not to apply broadcast indecency standards to satellite radio. Powell came close to hearkening back to the more hands-off attitude to program content he espoused in his earlier, pre-Janet Jackson days at the FCC said, as reported by Jarvis, "I think it's a dangerous thing to start talking about extending government oversight of content to other media just to level the playing field. At the end of the day, I think we're going to move in the direction of the Jeffersonian free-speech tradition." Then there was this heaping helping of food for thought directed at over-the-air television stations from Cory Bergman of website Lost Remote. Noting the gazillions of new distractions headed for the living rooms of America, and new video-on-demand features being added as fast as possible to cable and satellite services, Bergman wrote, "...the tired, old broadcast model falls flat. Everything will be on-demand and interactive. So why do so many TV stations (and to a lesser extent, the networks) still think of themselves as broadcasters? Stations must quickly reinvent themselves as content providers for multiple platforms."

RBR observation: TV's armor, especially at the network level, is its massive size. Dented and dinged as the armor has become in recent years, it still supports endeavors, like global news-gathering for one, which are simply beyond the reach of most of the services vying for a piece of the audience. The thing to remember is that network radio no doubt felt invincible in the 1930s. Then TV came along, took radio's block programming format away and forced radio into a completely different business model. The silver lining in all this is the fact that radio has proven to be a resilient medium, and has found new avenues to success over the years. But it was not immune from radical, systemic change then, and neither radio nor TV is invulnerable now.

Adbiz©

Staples steers clear of controversy
Office retailer Staples has suddenly found itself in the political spotlight - - a location it quite sensibly wants no part of. To dispel any notions that they are taking sides, the company has issued a statement saying that its recent announcement about discontinuing advertisements on Sinclair Broadcast Group station local newscasts was an advertising decision not a political decision. "Our media buying process with Sinclair Broadcast Group stations has recently been misrepresented by an organization with no affiliation to Staples," the company said in a statement. "Staples regularly drop and add specific programs from our media buying schedule, as we evaluate and adjust how to best reach our customers. We do not let political agendas drive our media buying decisions." "Staples does not support any political party," it continued. "We advertise with a variety of media outlets, but do not necessarily share the same views of these organizations or what they report. As we have done for a number of years, Staples will continue to advertise on Sinclair Broadcast Group stations."

RBR observation: Yeah, right. Companies DO add and drop advertising venues from their marketing plans, but they don't generally announce any of the particulars to the general public. Staples' statement on vacating Sinclair's newscasts was exceedingly bland, and consistent with the company's subsequent statement: "As a result of Staples' ongoing review of its advertising media buy activity, Staples will no longer be airing advertising on any Sinclair station's local news programs as of 1/10/05." (1/6/05 RBR #4). But it was a statement where none was necessary. Staples can backtrack all it wants, but the fact remains that in issuing the initial release, it put itself in the spotlight. The company is quite correct in wanting to avoid a political affiliation, however. Republicans, Democrats and members of all other parties have been known to purchase office supplies, and the goal at Staples is to keep those cash registers ringing. There is no sense in taking the chance of alienating even one potential customer.

Fox nixes bare-butt Mickey Rooney ad for Super Bowl
Mickey Rooney's backside in a Super Bowl ad: No, especially not after Janet Jackson's "wardrobe malfunction" at last year's Super Bowl. Fox has rejected a proposed ad for Airborne, a natural cold remedy revealing the 84-year-old's rear end. In the spot, the veteran movie star freaks out when someone coughs behind him in a sauna -- jumping up, screaming and heading for the door, with his towel slipping in the confusion and baring his backside for about two seconds, according to the newspaper.

RBR observation: Sources of this report comes from USA Today so don't blame our butt we are just letting you know in advance. Actually seeing Rooney's 84 year old bare butt just has us off the record laughing our butts off. Now there probably would have been a big brouhaha if it was the other Mickey's bare butt Airborne was using. Think about it.
| More... |

Center for Science in the Public Interest calls for
junk food ad ban on kid shows
The Center for Science in the Public Interest has proposed banning spots for nutritionally lacking foods from shows watched by children up to the age of 18. The report comes as the nation is facing what's been called an epidemic of rising childhood obesity rates. The org released its food marketing guidelines last week and sent letters to television networks, movie studios and food marketers urging their immediate adoption. | More... |

Traci Lords stars in campaign
for Duprey Cosmetics
Former porn star/current actress and singer Traci Lords will be the "face" of Duprey Cosmetics for the brand's 2005 ad campaign. The first spot in a series of sexy ads featuring Lords films today in LA. "Traci has incredible sex appeal," say founders Brian and Jim Duprey, whose cosmetics and artistry have graced the covers of Elle, Cosmopolitan and Glamour. "Her look can be ethereal, flirty, or downright dangerous. She's the ultimate temptress." The two minute spot, directed by Mike Ruiz, is a dreamy, futuristic trip set to Lord's new music release, "You Burn Inside Me."

February Radio & Television Business Report

"The Pros and Cons of Nielsen's Local People Meter and Arbitron's proposed Portable People Meter service"
After a rocky start, it's roll-out time of LPM & PPM. Will there be cooperation or more talk?

Engineered for Profit: "New tower standards coming: are you ready?" Did you know existing standards is currently in the midst of the biggest revision in years?

GM talkback: "How has LPM ratings changed selling in your market?" TV GMs say what they think-the good, bad and the ugly.

Media, Markets, and Money: Only one place tells it like it is with a run-down and overview of the biggest quarterly Radio and TV deals and outlook to 2005.

Media Markets & MoneyTM

New KEED on the block Zipps into Eugene again
Suzanne Arlie's Churchill Communications has filed to buy a third AM station in the Eugene-Springfield OR market, a process which began during the fall and has taken her price tag up to 862.5K all told. The latest acquisition is KEED-AM, coming from William Zipp's Extra Mile Media. It's coming for 225K - - 175K of which will be paid pursuant to a promissory note. Arlie has an option to LMA the station prior to closing at a cost of 2.1K/month through the end of March, at which time they'll review the books to see if the rent warrants an adjustment. The AM superduopoly will include KOPT-AM (ex-KXXO), which Arlie acquired from McKenzie River Broadcasting, and KXOR-AM (ex-KZTU), coming from Pamplin Broadcasting for 550K (12/22/04 RBR #248).

Washington Beat

FCC may preview 2005 this week
The Open Meeting set for Thursday, 1/13/05 at the FCC's Southwest Washington headquarters will follow the normal January pattern. It is an opportunity for chiefs and directors to discuss their various contributions to the agencies multiple areas of responsibility. Generally, they seize the opportunity to pat themselves on the back for a successful prior year (zzzzz). But more importantly, they also shine a spotlight on priorities for the immediate future. The Media Bureau will be front and center for broadcasters on the television side. Big decisions await concerning the transition to digital, particularly concerning cable carriage issues. We have been told to expect major activity on this front sometime in the first quarter. Will the FCC be revising or re-justifying the remanded media ownership rules? They probably won't have an answer for that one by Thursday, since the DOJ is still mulling over a Supreme Court challenge to the Third Circuit action. The Supreme decision isn't due until month's end. The Enforcement Bureau may have some interesting things to say on indecency, but the biggest news on that front will be coming from the eastern end of the national mall, as Congress reconsiders drastically jacking up the indecency speeding tickets that the FCC can write up.

Ratings & Research

Ratings boss leaves VNU
Michael Connors, Chairman of the Media Measurement & Information group at VNU - - which includes pretty much everything with the Nielsen name in the US - - announced that he is leaving the company to become CEO of an as-yet-unnamed public company. Connors had run the group since 2001, when VNU acquired ACNielsen Corp. and reunited that company's marketing research operation with Nielsen Media Research, which VNU already owned. The departing exec did not disclose where he is going next, but called the move "the appropriate next step in my career." Indeed, Connors may not yet have that next job nailed down, since he will remain in his VNU post until the end of June. Even after that, he will continue to serve on the board of directors of NetRatings, which is 63% owned by VNU, and will be on the board of a new international joint venture, AGB Nielsen Media Research. VNU said that a successor to Connors as head of its Media Measurement & Information group will be announced shortly.

Monday Morning Makers & Shakers

Transactions: 11/29/04-12/3/04
312.5M dollars looks like a good trading week. However, when 285M is associated with only one of the 26 stations which moves we can temper our enthusiasm somewhat. Still, the virtual paper was moving at the FCC during the week after Thanksgiving.

11/29/04-12/3/04	Total
Total Deals	15
AMs	9
FMs	12
TVs	5
Value	312.3M

| Complete Charts |

Radio Transactions of the Week
Central PA: From one grouper to another
| More... |

TV Transactions of the Week
Viacom upgrades Sacto affil to O&O
| More... |

Transactions

KJON-AM Dallas-Ft. Worth (Carrollton TX) from Carrollton Broadcasting of Texas LP to Border Media Partners.

WLFG-TV Tri-Cities TN-VA (Grundy VA); WAGV-TV Knoxville (Harlan KY); WLFB-TV Bluefield-Beckley-Oak Hill WV (Bluefield WV). 100% of Living Faith Ministries Inc.

KWFH-FM Parker AZ from Desert View Baptist Church to Advance Minitries Inc.

| More... |

Stock Talk

First week; first loss
There was mixed reaction Friday to news that job growth improved in December, though not as much as private economists had expected. But the trend on Wall Street for the first week of 2005 was clear - - down - - with investors remaining cautious about corporate earnings and what the Fed is going to do with rates. The Dow Industrials were down 01.7% for the week, falling 19 points, or 0.2%, on Friday to 10,604.

Radio stocks were also lower. The Radio Index fell 3.056 on Friday, or 1.4%, to 218.764. Emmis dropped 3.4% a day after its quarterly earnings report. Regent was off 3.7% and Cumulus 2.5%.

Radio Stocks

**Here's how stocks fared on Friday**
Company	Symbol	Close		Change	Company	Symbol	Close		Change
Arbitron	ARB		37.10	-0.40	Jeff-Pilot	JP		50.21	-0.21
Beasley	BBGI		16.81	-0.02	Journal Comm.	JRN		17.51	-0.19
Citadel	CDL		14.92	-0.08	Radio One, Cl. A	ROIA		15.44	-0.20
Clear Channel	CCU		31.89	-0.21	Radio One, Cl. D	ROIAK		15.52	-0.11
Cox Radio	CXR		16.05	-0.07	Regent	RGCI		5.26	-0.20
Cumulus	CMLS		13.75	-0.35	Saga Commun.	SGA		16.79	-0.21
Disney	DIS		27.17	-0.27	Salem Comm.	SALM		23.98	-0.47
Emmis	EMMS		18.01	-0.64	Sirius Sat. Radio	SIRI		7.10	-0.40
Entercom	ETM		33.14	-0.84	Spanish Bcg.	SBSA		10.11	+0.04
Entravision	EVC		7.87	-0.10	Univision	UVN		27.37	-0.15
Fisher	FSCI		49.33	+1.28	Viacom, Cl. A	VIA		38.08	-0.19
Gaylord	GET		39.65	-0.37	Viacom, Cl. B	VIAb		37.66	-0.18
Hearst-Argyle	HTV		25.80	+0.01	Westwood One	WON		25.25	-0.13
Interep	IREP		0.75	+0.02	XM Sat. Radio	XMSR		34.09	-0.45
International Bcg.	IBCS		0.01	unch	-	-	-	-	-

__UNSUB__ to this email service.

Bounceback

Send Us Your Opinions We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments to [email protected]

Some advice for a new network executive

Congratulations to Peter Olsen on his new position at A&E as SVP/Ad Sales (1/7 RBR #5). However, my question is, "Who is going to fix the programming"? Somehow I don't believe "Growing Up Gotti", "Dog: The Bounty Hunter" and "Airline" was what the founders had in mind when they started A&E, and they are certainly not my idea of the "A" part of the name of the network. I used to watch A&E quite often. It's hardly ever on in my house these days. It looks like I would enjoy The Biography Channel, as they seem to air many of the programs I used to enjoy on A&E. But it's an extra charge on my programming service provider and I already pay way too much.

Thanks for letting me sound off about this!

S. Eklof
Production Director,
BRN/KLTE-FM

Upped & Tapped

Rick Martini named WNEW-FM PD
Rick Martini returns to WNEW-FM in New York where he will serve as Program Director of Mix 102.7, it was announced by Maire Mason, VP/GM of the station. Martini previously worked for the station in 2003-04 as APD/MD. He played a key role in programming the station's all-holiday music format, as well as the launch of the "New Mix 102.7." He was tapped to serve as APD of Infinity's WCBS-FM in July 2004.

Double duty in Hotlanta
Cox Radio has named Dan Kearney Vice President and General Manager of WSB-FM and WBTS-FM in Atlanta. Kearney moves to the FM duo from WSB-AM, where he had been General Manager since 1999.

Kelly Music Research ups Paul Kelly
Paul Kelly has been named General Manager for Philadelphia based Kelly Music Research. He joined the company in 2001 and has served as Operations Manager.

Blair running MSG
Madison Square Gardens Networks has named Michael Blair as its new president, putting him in charge of its two cable nets, MSG and FSN New York, MSG Radio (NY Knicks, Rangers and Liberty play-by-play) and Internet/interactive operations.

Stations For Sale

Rated Market AM Coverage
Bristol, TN (#98) and adjacent Western Virginia Coverage with two great AM's. Priced to Sell!
Cliff at Clifton Gardiner & Co (303)758-6900
[email protected]

Tennessee / Alabama Border AM
2.5 KW AM on border with Rated Market Coverage (#118). Motivated Seller! Cliff at Clifton Gardiner & Co (303)758-6900
[email protected]

10 Station (One State) Cluster
Four Markets with $900K Trailing Cash Flow. Excellent Management. Located in Far Northwest.
Cliff at Clifton Gardiner & Co (303)758-6900
[email protected]

More News Headlines

Tsunami aid in the heartland

Clear Channel Satellite adds
"Herman Cain with The Bottom Line"

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty to guest-host for Bill Bennett

E*Trade goes to BBDO

RBR News Analysis

Results In on Clear Channel's "The Breast Christmas Ever"
Did you believe Clear Channel brass on the alibi that they?

1 - Did not know a thing
on the contest
22.31%
2 - Knew well in advance
about the contest
33.85%
3 - Just hoped it would
not get caught
43.85%

The brouhaha was not so much the contest, but the response from Clear Channel's Brass at the San Antonio HQ. A contest awarding breast implants to women contestants ran on four stations, including WKQI-FM Detroit, WFKS-FM Jacksonville, KSLZ-FM St. Louis and WFLZ-FM Tampa. The National Organization for Women has been leading a campaign protesting the contests. NOW was said to encourage an email campaign directed at both CCU CEO Mark Mays and the FCC. According to reports, Clear Channel HQ disavowed any knowledge of the contest, saying such decisions are made by local programmers. (1/5/05 RBR #3)

RBR Observation: It seemed at first that the local decision alibi was a little weak, with such a distinctively entitled contest showing up in four very different, geographically diverse cities. But we learned that the stations all carry the same morning show, which explained that situation. So, while the contest didn't originate in San Antonio, it wasn't entirely local operation, either. For sure, though, no one at CCU's HQ was taking responsibility for what was airing on stations they owned. Instead of Accountability, it seems they were looking for Disavowability.
| More... |

RBR Radar 2005

Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Court orders CC Radio
to feed to Sirius
The first court battle has begun over terrestrial radio stations defending their play-by-play sports turf from new competitors - - satellite radio. The first round goes to satellite, with a judge in Louisville, KY ordering Clear Channel Radio to provide a feed to Sirius Satellite Radio of University of Louisville football and basketball games. Clear Channel was sued by the university and Nelligan Sports Marketing, which holds the radio broadcast rights to Louisville games. Although Nelligan and the school had struck a deal to allow Sirius to carry Louisville games, Clear Channel had insisted that it had no contractual obligation to provide a feed to the satellite outlet.
RBR observation: Look for much more litigation of this sort - - particularly over terrestrial radio station's market exclusive rights to pro sports broadcasts, following recent league deals giving nationwide play-by-play broadcast contracts to Sirius and XM. Nutshell: The order means that WHAS-AM, the school's flagship station, will be providing Sirius with programming content.
TA DUM. 01/07/05 RBR #5

Emmis: Less Is More
impact minimal so far
Clear Channel's "Less is More" (LIM) initiative continues to be a top focus for Wall Street analysts, who are trying to discern what impact the clutter-cutting move is having on radio ad demand and pricing. But with LIM underway for several weeks now, Emmis Radio President Rick Cummings said the overall impact has not been great so far - - and he's hopeful the long-term effect will be to improve pricing for the entire radio industry. He indicated that Emmis had no need for a formal companywide edict such as LIM to control inventory, but said he'd probably do the same thing if he had to manage as many stations as Clear Channel had! 01/07/05 RBR #5

They said it in 2004: June
when Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone laid the ground work to what we shall probably see - "We probably will sell some of those stations to others who are more avaricious about radio than we are. Radio is growing, but not as fast as we would like." Bunch more of crazy quotes in June. Got to read them to believe what people really said. 01/07/05 RBR #5

Reach Media, Inc.
A Dallas-based media, broadcasting, internet and entertainment company targeting the African-American community. The hub of 'The Tom Joyner Show' - Needs to fill key positions: Director Affiliate Sales, Director TV Affiliate Relations, Ad Sales Account Executives and Sponsorship Sales. Be on the ground floor of the next exciting TV syndication program plus work with really great honest people. For more information, contact Amy Bert.

See Radio Careers for more info.

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