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Volume 23, Issue 127, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Thursday Morning June 29th, 2006

Radio News ®

Hollander takes a shot at
CC Radio over RFP process
CBS Radio CEO Joel Hollander is still miffed at Clear Channel Radio for expelling members of the Next-Generation Electronics Ratings Evaluation Team who had signed contracts for Arbitron's Portable People Meter (PPM), as his company has done (6/23/06 RBR #123). But as he unloaded on Clear Channel yesterday at the Bear Stearns/Interep Radio Symposium in New York, Hollander wasn't calling so much for CBS to be let back on, but for Clear Channel to get on the PPM bandwagon. "Let's get moving," he said, insisting that it was incumbent on other broadcasters to support PPM and get the system implemented. Hollander told RBR after the conference: "I think everybody had the right goal in mind when the RFP process was started. It's clear to me that has now changed, and it's time to stop stalling - let's get going. We need to engage this as an industry, ASAP." So, RBR asked, you would like to see the broadcasters, including CBS Radio, that were kicked off the committee reinstated? "Yeah, we should be part of the RFP - continue it. You know what, if somebody wants to do this really fast, they need to get to it. I mean it has been six, seven months already for the RFP process. So the bottom line is, the earliest that MRC accreditation can happen is 90 days from now. So keep on talking in the RFP process and keep on negotiating with Arbitron. Why shouldn't they be parallel courses?" Hollander said. In his view, other major broadcasters should adopt the electronic ratings system from Arbitron, saying that even though the technology was not perfect that it was good enough to start with now.

Coen slashes radio forecast
Ad guru Bob Coen's 2006 forecast for radio has fallen off a cliff since his optimistic prediction in December that both national and local would grow 4% this year. His revised numbers are for national (network & spot) to grow 1% and for local to show no growth at all. Radio, cable and newspapers took the biggest hits as, Coen, Sr. VP and Director of Forecasting at Universal McCann, announced his semi-annual forecast update. "In the first quarter of 2006, National marketers increased their budgets in most media. However, National advertising in Newspapers experienced a substantial decline in the first quarter of 2006 as a result of comparative weakness in some important categories, such as factory ads by Automobile manufacturers, some Financial institutions as well as Travel and Resort ads. Most of the other media have posted respectable gains except for Radio and the Cable TV Networks. Radio is a minor medium for most National marketers and short-term volatility is quite common. In the case of the Cable TV Networks, the weak gains in the first quarter are probably due to a flattening out of prices after a sharp price run-up in 2005," the guru stated. Meanwhile, Internet advertising growth is far outstripping Coen's 10% growth forecast, so he has dramatically increased that to 25%. That and increases in his forecasts for national spot TV and syndicated TV more than countered decreases for most other national media, so his forecast for national ad spending rose to 7.1% form his previous 6.8%. Local, however, fell to 3.1% from 4%. That reduced Coen's overall forecast for US ad growth to 5.6% from his previous 5.8%. RBR's chart compares Coen's original forecast and yesterday's revision.
| View Coen's Numbers |

Radio not dead, but needs to change
While Bob Coen was issuing his gloomy forecast for radio ad revenues, the picture was a little brighter at the Bear Stearns/Interep Radio Symposium a few blocks away. Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller told attendees, many of them Wall Street investment managers, that political spending is going to be significant for radio in the second half of this year. With 34 Governor's races, tons of propositions and some hotly contested Senate and House races, there will be pressure on inventory from political advertising. At the same time, radio has been cutting inventory, following the lead of Clear Channel's Less Is More (LIM). George Nadel Rivin of Miller, Kaplan, Arase & Co. predicted that by fall the average spot load for music radio stations will be eight minutes per hour. Another panel indicated that :30s are growing in popularity and that pricing is increasing modestly for the shorter spots, though not for radio advertising overall. Rich Russo, JL Media's SVP/Director of Broadcast Services, agreed that LIM is an improvement, but complained that there has been little programming improvement - that radio needs to work on building the "cool" factor, so still has a marketing problem.

McCain pushed through
LPFM amendment
Work on the S. 2686, the Communications, Consumers' Choice, and Broadband Deployment Act of 2006 continued to move forward, and yesterday it was the turn former Commerce Committee Chairman John McCain (R-AZ) to offer some amendments. And he scored a 14-7 win which if it survives all the way to bill signing would open third adjacent FM channels up to LPFM stations. McCain has been pushing for opening the door for more LPFMs for some time, and this time prefaced his remarks with the tale of the temporary LPFM which provided specific news and info for people hiding out in the New Orleans Superdome during Hurricane Katrina. He wondered why there aren't there more LPFMs, then responded to his own question "The answer is complex, but is has to do with the National Association of Broadcasters." McCain's attempt to get an amendment on a la carte didn't fare nearly so well. Under the Stevens bill, as in the House version, national franchise benefits will accrue to cable systems when they are subject to new competitive entrants into their franchise areas. Under McCain's amendment, they would only be eligible for these benefits if they are providing an a la carte menu option. It was considered to be hampered by flawed construction, and was thus opposed by many Republicans who said they supported the a la carte concept. It was soundly defeated 20-2. John Kerry (D-MA) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) addressed the topic of build-out requirements by new entrants, and almost succeeded in altering Steven's bill. They would have allowed any new entrant freedom of entry, with no requirement to do anything until they successfully service 15% of a franchise area. At that point, they would be required to add coverage incrementally, and only when another success threshold has been reached. The amendment lost 12-10.

What's a young billionaire to do?
Can Emilio Azcarraga Jean snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? The Televisa CEO insists that he isn't giving up after Univision agreed to a 12.3 billion buyout by Haim Saban's group (6/28/06 RBR #126), but short of coming up with a lot more cash in a hurry, Azcarraga's options are limited. With a 300 million bucks break-up fee to cover, the Televisa group would have to come up with a bid of 38 bucks a share or maybe more to get Univision Chairman Jerry Perenchio to cut short his European vacation and return to the bargaining table. And don't forget what a tough time Azcarraga had in putting together a bid of 35.75. Where can he find more cash and, at the same time, keep Bill Gates' Cascade Investments and Bain Capital from taking a hike over pricing as other original members of the Televisa bidding group did? Those are the hurdles to clear in option one. Option two is to vote down the Saban deal and start again. Televisa and/or Venevision can veto the sale under their special stock rights, but that can be overridden by a 60% shareholders vote - so they would need to draw another 20% or so to their cause, which could only likely be done with a higher bid on the table. That brings us back to the same hurdles as option number one. Option number three is to try to derail the deal with objections to US regulators. The problem there is that a Televisa deal would pose more regulatory problems over foreign ownership than anything they can raise about the Saban group. We understand that the buyer is structured so that the equity backers who have interests in other US FCC licensees won't be attributable owners in the eyes of the FCC. Saban, a US citizen, has no other attributable interests to worry about. Of course, the simplest solution would be for Azcarraga to join the Saban group, but his ego will not allow that. Meanwhile, Televisa can continue its legal fight to get out of its programming contract with Univision, which runs through 2017, and start a new US network, but that is a long-shot at best. Televisa has indicated that it, not Univision, owns the Internet rights to its programming in the US - a claim that Univision disputes. So, could Televisa do an end-run and distribute its programming via the Web into the US? It is questionable how much of an impact that would even have on Univision. The telenovelas that air in primetime now on Univision have already aired in Mexico on Televisa, so it would be simple for friends and relatives to send videos and DVDs north, but that doesn't seem to have had any impact on ratings for Univision. Azcarraga is clearly frustrated and wants to make a move - but it is not going to be easy to move forward on his desire to buy or build his own US network.

RBR observation: The silliest suggestion we've seen put forward is that Saban's group would sell the Univision TV network business to Televisa and keep only the TV station group. Saban, who made his fortune on the Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers, is a programming guy. There is simply no way he did this deal so he could sell off the programming assets and keep only the distribution platform. Would he consider selling off the Univision Radio group? Maybe, but in recent conference calls Univision President Ray Rodriguez has been crowing about the success of the radio-TV synergy, with radio promoting the TV network programs and the tie to TV bringing new advertising accounts to the radio group. The least synergistic assets at Univision are the record labels, but how much would anyone be willing to pay for them? Pricing would be a major issue in any asset sale. Having paid 17 times projected 2006 EBITDA for the whole Univision package, that multiple increases if any pieces are sold off at anything less than 17 times - and that is not the way equity investment firms like to do business.

Pepper gets Disney Chair
Directors at The Walt Disney Company looked around the table and selected one of their own to be the next Chairman - John Pepper, a former CEO of Procter & Gamble who only joined the Disney board earlier this year. Pepper currently serves as CEO of the National Underground Railroad Freedom Center. Like the current Chairman, former Sen. George Mitchell, Pepper will be non-executive Chairman, leaving President & CEO Bob Iger as the top member of fulltime management. The titles have been split since a shareholder revolt against former Chairman & CEO Michael Eisner. Mitchell will be retiring at the end of this year - a retirement he had agreed to delay beyond the recent annual shareholders meeting - and Pepper will take the Chair effective January 1, 2007.

Ad Business Report TM

IPG and Facebook partner for marketing programs
The Interpublic Group (IPG) has entered into a strategic partnership with Facebook, the social utility that allows people to share information online to participate in marketing programs on the website, including online advertising and promotions, sponsorships, consumer research and content creation on behalf of its clients. Interpublic has also agreed to acquire less than one-half of one percent of Facebook. "The strategic partnership will give us access to the youth market and a platform from which to learn about the dynamics of social networks and participate in this increasingly important medium," said Michael Roth, IPG CEO. "Facebook's users represent a difficult-to-reach - but very key - audience for many of our clients. Young and tech-savvy consumers are increasingly shunning traditional media vehicles and defining themselves and their community online. Facebook is among the top ten most-trafficked sites in the United States. More than 65% of all college students have made it an important part of their lives and it is gaining popularity with the high school market. That's why this alignment makes so much sense for us." The agreement is of recent initiatives to help IPG clients better understand and become involved in the changes in consumer behavior being driven by digital media. These initiatives include the launch of the company's Emerging Media Lab, its Consumer Experience Practice and the User-Generated Content Practice announced at Cannes.

Media Markets & Money TM

Archway picks up its 4th market
For the third time this year, NextMedia Group has opted to spin off a small market radio cluster. This time, the market is Decatur IL and the buyer is Archway Broadcasting Group. Archway gets two AMs and three FMs in the central Illinois municipality. Archway, headed by Gordon Herzog and Kathy Stinehour, will pay 8.15M for the cluster, which includes WSOY AM & FM, WDZ-AM, WDZQ-FM, all licensed to Decatur, and WCZQ-FM Monticello. According to the BIA market report accompanying FCC documentation, sports a wide variety of formats. The AMs rely on News-Talk-Sports and Urban, while the FMs play Adult Hits, Country and Hip Hop. Decatur is located between Champaign to the east and Springfield to the west, and in the television world, the three are considered to be part of the same DMA. Archway also has stations in and around Little Rock AR, Greenville-New Bern-Jacksonville NC and Columbus GA.

Washington Media Business Report TM

FCC on notice to provide notice
Byron Dorgan (D-ND) has been watching the FCC like a hawk ever since 6/2/03. His Resolution of Disapproval concerning the FCC's actions on that date won approval by the Senate and failed to become law, many feel, only because Republican leadership in the House of Representatives sat on it. Then it was rendered somewhat moot by remand of the rules back to the Commission by the Third Circuit Court. Dorgan had been talking about putting language into the S. 2686, the Communications, Consumers' Choice, and Broadband Deployment Act of 2006 concerning media ownership. What passed by voice vote is a simple requirement that the FCC report any changes to the rules in public before final adoption. The full bill was passed out of committee late yesterday after an 11-11 vote (which means it is not adopted) on a contentious issue to require net neutrality, opening broadband connections to all comers on an equal basis. The final vote on passage was 15-7, sending the bill to the full Senate for a vote.

RBR observation: This strikes us as a fairly tame requirement. However, it is true that the full nature of the 6/2/03 rulemaking was not revealed until, well, 6/2/03. It was, until pulled back by the Court, and if not the law of the land, the regulation of the land, by 3-2 party-line vote, pending publication in the Federal Register, before anybody except the Commissioners and certain FCC employees even knew what was in it. This amendment, if it survives the long road ahead, which includes stops on the Senate floor, conference committee and the President's desk, would at least prevent FCC Chairman Kevin Martin from springing a similar surprise on interested parties like Michael Powell did. The question is, what will move faster, Martin's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking or this bill?

NCE forays into unreserved band shot down
The FCC is holding the line against noncommercial excursions into the upper portions of the FM dial. Living Proof Inc. wanted to set up shop on 95.7 mHz in Lake Isabella CA. American Family Association (AFA) was shooting for 97.3 mHz in Madison MO. Calvary of New Orleans was eying 106.9 mHz in Franklin LA. And Call Communications was looking to build on 92.7 mHz In Key West FL. Living Proof failed to bring new second NCE service to either 10% of the population in the proposed area or at least to 2,000 or more people (it reached 5%/704 respectively). AFA also failed to satisfy the 10% requirement, and was looking to go noncommercial on an allotment which had at least two interested (and comment-filing) commercial suitors. It was pointed out to Calvary that a reserved band possibility at 90.7 mHz was possible and preferable. Call claimed it would be providing second NCE service to Key West, which the FCC seemed to think represented a less than thorough NCE inventory, since it lists three such stations.

Entertainment Media Business Report TM

Jackie Mason launches
weekly show with TRN
Legendary comedian Jackie Mason and Talk Radio Network Entertainment announced the launch of The Jackie Mason Show 7/2, from 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. PST and 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. EST. "TRN Entertainment is honored to be working with such a comic legend, I grew up with his stand-up and later his TV and movie appearances, his quick wit and unique observations of everyday life are a treat for audiences of all ages," said Mark Masters, CEO of TRN Entertainment. "A live weekly radio show is the perfect stage for Jackie to introduce his work to a new generation and to continue to master his special brand of the comedic arts."

Ratings & Research

Another PPM sign-up for Arbitron
With next month's planned commercial launch of the Portable People Meter (PPM) in Houston on indefinite hold, Arbitron is still working to sign more station owners for PPM service and build momentum for the passive measurement system. The latest to sign a contract is Service Broadcasting Corporation, which doesn't have any stations in Houston, but is in the same state - Texas. If PPM deployment gets back on schedule, its three stations in Dallas-Ft. Worth, KKDA-AM & FM and KRNB-FM, should receive PPM ratings in July 2008. "We are excited to be among the first Urban Broadcasters to sign for PPM. We look forward to continuing to be the leading research resource for our advertisers, business partners and agencies," said Service Broadcasting VP Dick Romanick.

RBR observation: We found most interesting the quote in Arbitron's news release from its own Sr. VP of US Sales, Carol Hanley: "K104's [KKDA-FM] commitment to the PPM shows that Urban radio has nothing to fear from PPM. It also demonstrates the confidence that Urban radio stations and networks can place in Arbitron's passive electronic audience measurement system." How can that be read as anything but a deliberate slap at Urban giant Radio One, which has refused to let its stations encode for the current PPM test in Houston?

Music Media Business Report TM

Label groups in takeover battle
Management of Warner Music Group (WMG) and EMI Group agree on one thing - the two record companies should become one. What they don't agree on is who should buy whom. First EMI offered to buy WMG for 3.9 billion bucks. No thanks, said WMG, but we want to buy you for 2.4 billion bucks. EMI also said no, but offered to buy WMG for 4.2 billion. That was rejected as well and WMG came back with a bid to buy EMI for 2.5 billion. No thanks, said EMI, which apparently now has the ball in its court. Talks continue on figuring out which will be the surviving entity when a deal is finally put together to combine the two companies. Then it will be time to see if any deal passes muster with antitrust regulators in the US and Europe.

Transactions

7.5M WHSM AM & FM Hayward WI; KGHS-AM/KSDM-FM International Falls MN; KKIN AM & FM Aitkin MN/KFGI-FM Crosby MN; and WXCX-FM Siren WI/WLMX-FM Balsam Lake WI from Q B Broadcasting Ltd./Quarnstrom Media Group LLC (Alan R. Quarnstrom) to Red Rock Radio Corporation, a subsidiary of Curtis Squire Inc.[ (Myron Kunin et al). 250K escrow, 1M cash at closing, 6.25M note. Includes non-compete, consulting agreement. [File date 6/7/06.]

2.15M WDJA-AM West Palm Beach FL (Delray Beach FL) from James Crystal Delray Beach Inc. (James C. Hilliard) to Vega Investment Group LLC (Richard Vega, Pablo Vega). Assignment assumption from Quality Broadcasting Corp. (Laurie Silvers, Mitchell Rubenstein), who filed to acquire station 2/14/06. 150K esc, balance in cash at closing. LMA until closing. Deal is contingent on closing of this buyer's sale of WOCN-AM Miami. [File date 6/8/06.]

Stock Talk

Waiting for the Fed
Investors are still waiting to see what the Fed will do about rates as its meeting concludes today, but there was some interest in buying stocks yesterday. The Dow Industrials rose 49 points, or 0.5%, to 10,974.

Radio stocks were slightly higher. The Radio Index rose 0.469, or 0.3%, to 145.239. SBS rose 3.6%, pulling back out of penny stock territory. Cox Radio gained 2%.

Radio Stocks

**Here's how stocks fared on Wednesday**
Company	Symbol	Close		Change	Company	Symbol	Close		Change
Arbitron	ARB		37.51	+0.67	Hearst-Argyle	HTV		21.85	-0.02
Beasley	BBGI		6.55	+0.11	Journal Comm.	JRN		11.20	+0.02
CBS CI. B	CBS		26.63	+0.11	Lincoln Natl.	LNC		55.62	+0.29
CBS CI. A	CBSa		26.62	+0.09	Radio One, Cl. A	ROIA		7.00	-0.11
Citadel	CDL		8.81	+0.14	Radio One, Cl. D	ROIAK		7.05	-0.07
Clear Channel	CCU		29.81	-0.13	Regent	RGCI		3.67	+0.03
Cox Radio	CXR		14.09	+0.28	Saga Commun.	SGA		8.61	-0.23
Cumulus	CMLS		10.09	-0.04	Salem Comm.	SALM		11.75	+0.04
Disney	DIS		29.38	-0.03	Sirius Sat. Radio	SIRI		4.66	+0.09
Emmis	EMMS		15.72	-0.05	Spanish Bcg.	SBSA		5.13	+0.18
Entercom	ETM		25.17	+0.23	Univision	UVN		33.71	-0.29
Entravision	EVC		8.06	+0.09	Westwood One	WON		7.57	+0.02
Fisher	FSCI		42.17	+0.32	XM Sat. Radio	XMSR		14.25	+0.54
Gaylord	GET		41.51	+0.17	-	-	-	-	-

Bounceback

Send Us Your Opinions We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]

I feel that as leader of the Next-Generation Electronics Ratings Evaluation Team, Clear Channel's decision to kick-off members of radio groups that have signed on with Arbitron's PPM measurement system to be a bit hypocritical. Clear Channel does not seem to have a problem with Cox Radio and Radio One continuing their participation in the RFP process even though both groups have refused to participate with encoding during the testing of the PPM in Houston. The refusal of these groups to even test the PPM during the evaluation period tells me that they have also made their own decision about an electronic measurement system, and it does not include the PPM. Therefore, Cox and Radio One are the same as the other groups. They have made a decision, they have just not made it public.

Bernie Shimkus
Media Director/Director of Research
Harmelin Media

Below the Fold

Ad Business Report
IPG and Facebook partner
For marketing programs to share information online...

Media Markets & Money
Archway picks up its 4th market
3rd time this year, NextMedia Group has opted to spin off...

Washington Media Business Report
FCC on notice
To provide notice Sen. Dorgan been watching the FCC like a hawk...

Ratings & Research
Another PPM sign-up
Service Broadcasting Corp...

Arbitrends

Radio Media Moves

New GM on
Long Island
Hedy Krebs-DeMaio has been promoted to General Manager of the cluster of stations owned by Long Island Broadcasting. She had been Director of Sales since last October after joining the company from Cox-owned WBLI-FM.

Changes at new net
Greenstone Media announced that Heather Cohen, formerly with WOR Radio, has joined the new FM Talk network for women as Director of Programming, New York. In a related move, Dan Larkin has been upped from Executive Producer to Director of Programming, Los Angeles.

CFO exits Fisher
According to an SEC filing, Robert C. Bateman and Fisher Communications agreed that Bateman would resign from his position as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company effective July 31, 2006. There is yet no word on a permanent successor. Jodi Colligan, Vice President Finance, will serve as interim CFO.

Jim Woods tapped to lead station automation ops at dMarc
Google has appointed Jim Woods as director of automation at its dMarc radio automation division, helping drive the upcoming release of the next generation of Scott SS32 and Maestro automation solutions. Woods joins Google from Harris Corporation where he was most recently VP/GM of automation solutions for the broadcast communications division.

International

Senate finds
consolidation to
be a problem
A Senate committee last week found it to be problematical when news sources within a media market are limited to one, two or three ownership groups. It said that in general, citizens are getting useful and reliable news services, but that in some areas of the country a lack of diverse sources was beginning to be of concern. The Committee was the Transport and Communications Committee, which, if may seem somewhat unfamiliar to regular readers of this space. That's because it's in Canada. The committee's report was based on a three-year study, according to north-of-the-border media trade Broadcaster Magazine. The committee had good news for broadcasters in one area. It wants government owned service CBC to get out of competition with them. For starters, it would eliminate CBC broadcasts of professional sporting events and the Olympics. More importantly, it would fully-fund the service, which now sells advertising worth approximately 400M, in direct competition with commercial broadcast operations.

June RBR/TVBR
Digital Magazine

Take a look at what's in the June RBR/TVBR Solutions Magazine:
Valerie Geller, President/Geller Media, writes, "Put resources back into News/Talk radio." Cutting it to the bone isn't working. If you want to win in the format, the "next big thing" will be to give news/talk radio back the resources it needs to win.

OneonOne: Jim Farley, VP/News and Programming, handles WTOP, Washington Post Radio and Federal News Radio (Bonneville DC). He talks about coordinating the news flow back and forth from WTOP, WFED and Washington Post Radio; How he finds and cultivates local talent; what he thinks about radio cutting news operations a bit too much across the country; and more.

GM Talk: What do GMs look for in talk programming-are they looking to fill a demo or are they looking for a certain personality? How do they choose one over the others?

These and other hot industry issues addressed in June.

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1.Create a simple account with Zinio and download the Zinio Reader.
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June Issue of RBR/TVBR

RBR Radar 2006

Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Univision sold to Saban...or is it?
There are hints that a topper bid could still be coming from the Televisa group, despite Univision announcing that it had accepted a bid from Haim Saban's group for 13.7 billion, including 1.4 billion in debt assumption.

RBR observation: Should Azcarraga come back with a higher bid that the 35.75 he had initially offered, he would need to go substantially above the Saban bid. According to Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes, the Univision contract with Saban is believed to include a 300 million bucks break-up fee, so just to be on par with Saban's price of 36.25, the Televisa group would have to bid 37.25. We await the next move, if there is to be one.
06/28/06 RBR #126

Hispanic consumers spend a
lot of time listening to radio
Heavy users of radio, spending significant time, in particular with Spanish-language radio, according to a new study from Arbitron. The U.S. Hispanic population is growing rapidly and is now the biggest minority in the country. Arbitron's new study - Hispanic Radio Today 2006 - shows that radio reaches over 95% of all Hispanic Americans over the age of 12. While the average Non-Hispanic consumer listens to an average of 19 hours and 15 minutes of radio per week. View the complete study and details and use it in your Sales

Editor's note: Look for the Special report: "The explosion of Hispanic radio formats and TV networks" in the August issue of Radio & Television Business Report.
06/28/06 RBR #126

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