Welcome to RBR's Daily Epaper
Volume 21, Issue 181, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
Thursday Morning September 16th, 2004

Radio News ®

Lehman analyst drops radio forecast
Yet another Wall Street analyst has cut back his forecast for radio revenue growth this year and next - - and they're big drops. Lehman Brothers analyst Bill Meyers now expects growth of only 2.7% this year, not the 3.7% he had previously forecast. And for 2005 Meyers has cut his growth estimate to 2% from his previous 4.5%. "Just three short months ago, we had forecasted radio industry growth of 5% in 2004. After all, the industry stood to benefit from: 1) robust consumer spending (implying a healthy advertising environment), 20 incremental political advertising dollars, and 3) easy comparisons versus 2003. That is, 2003 revenues were 'artificially low' given a pullback in advertising associated with the Iraq war. Even with all those revenue drivers, the radio industry managed to disappoint in 2004," Meyers told investors in his latest missive. "Specifically, the most recent data points suggest weakness in national advertising, softness in August, and a reversal of September's previously strong trends. Moreover, some industry participants have begun to suggest that political contributions could disappoint," he wrote. As a result, Meyers has cut his Q3 growth estimate from 2.2% to 0.4% and Q4 from 6% to 4%. Given his now-gloomy outlook for the rest of 2004, the Lehman analyst isn't optimistic about 2005. "We are reducing our 2005 radio industry revenue growth forecast from +4.5% to +2%. Absent catalysts, we expect nominal revenues to grow slower in 2005 than in 2004. First, the industry will not benefit from political spending (as it did in 2004). Second, growth of consumer spending is expected to moderate in 2005. Third, inflation is expected to moderate in 2005. Under this scenario, the arguable presence of 'easy comps' is simply not enough to propel growth," Meyers said.

Tough August for Tribune
Proving again that this is a year of haves and have-nots in broadcasting, Tribune Company reported that its August TV revenues were down 4.2% to 98.2 million dollars. Tribune's group of mostly WB affiliates is not getting the heavy political spending enjoyed by competitors with news-intensive big-three network affiliates - - and, of course, it missed out on the Olympics spending that went to NBC stations. "September television revenues are softer than anticipated as political advertising is benefiting only certain 'swing' markets; third quarter TV ad revenues are expected to be flat versus last year," the company said in its monthly announcement. Radio/Entertainment revenues rose 23.4% to 30.5 million, with the increase attributed to the Chicago Cubs. So, total Broadcasting & Entertainment revenues were up 1.2% to 128.8 million. Publishing ad revenues rose 3% to 233.2 million, with retain down 0.8%, but national up 3.9% and classified jumping 7.1%. "Due to lower-than-anticipated revenues in publishing and broadcasting, third quarter diluted earnings per share will be in the range of 49 to 51 cents. This estimate assumes that non-operating items are not material in the quarter and excludes the impact of charges related to Newsday and Hoy, New York," Tribune warned. That was well below the Thompson First Call consensus of 54 cents.

TV revenues jump for Journal,
radio also up

Journal Broadcast Group's biggest TV station, WTMJ-TV Milwaukee, is an NBC affiliate - - as are two of its other stations - - so it got a healthy boost from the Summer Olympics in August, not to mention political spending. TV revenues shot up 31.6% to 6.8 million dollars. The radio group's month wasn't as impressive, but it was still up 2.7% to 6.7 million. That put total broadcast revenues as 13.5 million, up 15.6%. Publishing revenues were up 5.1% to 25.9 million, with ad revenues up 5.7% to 19.6 million.


Dissent over consent: Emmis under fire
David Smith, the personal watchdog of Emmis airman Mancow Muller, and others have decided to attack the agreement between the FCC and Emmis under which Emmis made a 300K dollar contribution to the US Treasury, and was absolved of any further liability for indecency cases past and pending. For Smith, it represents something of an about face. | More... |

Battleground shrinking?
The Associated Press reports that changes in the polls may have shortened the already short list of contested states in the presidential campaign. AP lists ten states which are now getting the bulk of Bush and Kerry campaign expenditures. They include Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, West Virginia and New Hampshire. Additionally, the Bush campaign is said to be paying attention to Michigan. Kerry is paying additional attention to Maine and Oregon.

RBR observation: The Kerry campaign came right out and said after the Republican convention that considerable flexibility was built into its advertising plan, and we're sure that's the case for the Bush campaign as well. Polls and events will make their effects felt, and each campaign will respond accordingly. We're sure both ad plans are on a chalkboard, not a stone tablet.

Broadcast candidates move on
Two broadcasters with hats squarely in the ring overcame their primary hurdles to date - - literally the primaries. Both are angling for a seat in the US House of Representative. One will represent the Democrats in Washington State while the other carries the Republican banner in Wisconsin. Although the Washington race can perhaps be called a Dunn deal, it is apparently anything but a done deal. The battle is for the 8th District seat being vacated by Republican Jennifer Dunn. Radio Talker Dave Ross, who carries both a local and a national broadcasting pedigree, will ride the donkey in a face-off against elephant-riding Dave Reichert, currently King County Sheriff. The Wisconsin race will pit radio station owner and Republican Dave Magnum against 2nd District Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin. Magnum may have his work cut out. The 2nd District includes state capital and liberal stronghold Madison. Baldwin carried 66% of the vote in winning a third term in 2002.Two other broadcasters will be on the ballot in November, hoping for seats in the US House. Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR), an Oregon radio group owner, is seeking his fourth term and former Cincinnati radio and TV personality Nick Clooney is the Democratic nominee for an open seat in Kentucky.


Publishers Perspective

The Martha misses real opportunity
Yep, The Real Martha Stewart finally made the biggie decision to hear the door slam behind her yesterday and has asked to start the prison term ASAP. She took the Summer off - - like almost three months - - but has lost a great opportunity and so have the TV Networks and or Cable. If someone would have given The Martha good business counsel or input and started the five-month stretch back in July, The Martha would have been out for the Holidays. Just think of the TV or Cable Holiday specials we could have had: The Martha Living in Jail Christmas Special, The Martha New Years Eve at Home Special with Friends including Oprah. Plus, The Martha will even miss a Valentines Day Special program - I Love You Martha special, with how to treat that special someone with the color orange. The audience would have loved this The Martha Reality programming. The Networks would have made a ton of money. Hell, she could have even made a guest appearance with 'The Donald' at the finale of this season's The Apprentice by saying - You're Fired. Or You Are Hired to run Martha Stewart Living company. So many opportunities wasted by not making a quick decision and taking the Summer off. Who would have Thunked It? Ah, the opportunities missed. Well Martha, maybe next time.
Jim Carnegie, Publisher


Adbiz ©

Ed Powers named Lowe COO
Interpublic announced that Ed Powers has been named COO of Lowe Worldwide. Powers, 46, will work directly with Tony Wright, the agency's newly appointed Worldwide CEO and President. Powers, who had most recently been COO of Interpublic's Constituency Management Group (CMG), which houses a number of marketing services firms, will assume his new responsibilities at Lowe 11/1, at the same time Mr. Wright joins the agency. "We believe Ed and Tony will make a great team," said David Bell, CEO and President of Interpublic. "Ed has exceptional operational skills and financial expertise. He will primarily focus on supporting Tony in those areas, which will ensure that Tony can focus on clients and the creation of big ideas. Together with the new management recently installed at Lowe offices in a number of key global markets and a number of recent important additions at Lowe Worldwide, Tony and Ed have what it takes to restore Lowe to its rightful place in the top echelon of global creative agencies."

British Airways launches
humorous campaign

British Airways announced today the launch of its new North American integrated advertising campaign. The multi-million dollar effort marks the first leisure-oriented tactical creative campaign the airline has launched in almost two years. It debuted 9/15 in print, online and on network and cable. Created by M&C Saatchi NY, the campaign focuses entirely on London as a destination, and highlights an authentic London experience that only a "local" like British Airways can provide. The three TV spots were developed to promote British Airways' unbeatable sale prices while using humor to highlight real London sites and attractions. The campaign line, "Go with those who know" reinforces that British Airways is the airline that can deliver this promise of the "real London experience." The coordinating print and online advertising deliver a similar message with clever use of well-known iconic British imagery. Spend includes time on the season finale of The Amazing Race and the premier of Survivor as well as CBS, ABC, USA, VH1 and Bravo's Queer Eye for the Straight Guy. Print publications include USA Today, New York Times, Boston Globe, Washington Post, while online sites showcasing creative units include Yahoo! NYTimes.com, Boston.com and more.


Media, Markets & Money tm

Wall Street snaps up broadcast bonds
Stock prices may be soft, but Wall Street is still hot for broadcast bonds. Both Clear Channel and Fisher Communications priced new bond issues yesterday with single digit yields. Demand was so strong that Clear Channel upped its planned 500 million dollar issue to 750 million in 10 year notes and priced it to yield 5.556% with a 5.5% coupon. Joint book-runners were Citigroup Global Markets and Wachovia Securities. Fisher's offering of 150 million in 10 year notes was priced at par with a coupon of 8.625%. Wachovia Securities was the sole manager.

BroadCap looks at station investments
Hank Torbert, the EVP/COO of Broadcast Capital Inc., appeared at the National Association of Black Owned Broadcasters session of station trading and finance last week (9/10/04), and provided a wealth of information on the ins and outs of financing station acquisitions in particular, and, really, anything in general. This will be a return to Fin101 for some, but for you PDs and for anyone else with nothing to do during the latest deal freeze, lets go through some of Torbert's info. Every once in a while we hear about layers of financing. Torbert has provided a guide to just what those layers are. The first two are equity only (based on future cash flows); the others can be equity of debt (based on existing cash flows). Here goes:

* Seed: Research, assessment, concept development money
* Start-up: Product development, initial marketing
* Expansion: Growing an existing business or acquiring existing broad assets
* Turnaround: Fixing up an existent but underperforming property
* Management buy-in: Outsiders bring in cash for a share of the business
* Management buy-out: Current management brings in existing properties
* Bridge finance - - IPO: Going on the market, from private to public
* Replacement capital: Transferring shares in a company from one investor to another
More tommorow.


Washington Beat

Adelstein on the road again
Democratic FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein showed up in Dearborn MI yesterday, at an event called a Town Meeting on the Future of Media, which was sponsored by the Detroit Free Press. The four-hour session provided a forum for citizens to grind their axes about radio and television programming. Adelstein took to the pages of that newspaper asking for citizen participation, and to his credit asked people to be prepared to describe the positive aspects of broadcasting out there now. In the article, Adelstein laid out what he feels broadcasters must do to earn their license. He wrote, "...broadcasters must air programming that responds to the needs and interests of the community, including local elections, news, community events and weather or other public safety warnings. They should also broadcast a certain amount of material that is appropriate for children and reflects local community standards. They should provide opportunities for local self-expression and reach out to make sure coverage reflects the makeup of the community. They should send reporters out to all segments of the region to report on the positive things happening in each of our communities." Adelstein, who along with Michael Copps was a dissenter to the infamous and currently on-ice 6/2/03 ownership ruling, said many broadcasters are doing an excellent job of meeting these responsibilities, but that not enough were in that exemplary group.


Programming

CC Radio to become a major
Hispanic radio player

A source alluded this was coming yesterday: Clear Channel Radio has now announced an expanded commitment to Spanish-language programming with an aggressive, multi-market initiative aimed at converting stations across a full range of market sizes to Hispanic formats. Under the plan, some 20 to 25 stations will be converted in the next 12 to 18 months alone. Leading the initiative will be long-time Spanish-language radio vet Alfredo Alonso, who was named to the newly created position of SVP/Hispanic Radio.

RBR observation: Look out SBS, Univision and Interep, which carries a Hispanic network. The largest broadcaster can no longer place on the back burner what are the most significant population and demographic shift in the history of the US. The Hispanic market demands attention and Clear Channel is now paying it. But a little math is warranted here - If you do the math on how network radio gets sold vs. spot radio, if you normally pitch a network and you've got deficiencies in certain markets, there's nothing you can do about it. Hopefully your network still gets bought or you have to negotiate a price or whatever. Using this scenario with CC O&Os, they can go and pitch their Premiere Spanish Network or whatever they want to call it, and any deficiencies they've got, they can in turn use their O&Os to make up the deficiencies and set any kind of pricing they want to - because they own the stations. And yep, there is more inside | More... |


Ratings & Research

Arbitron serves up an Oldie
The spate of market additions continues unabated from ratings giant Arbitron, although if you're a long-time observer of the company, you've heard this name before. La Crosse WI, which graced the Arbitron roster in the 240+ range back in the mid-90s, will come back at #222 with 153.6K persons aged 12 or older. It'll get two surveys a year.

Correction: Yesterday we said that Valdosta GA was 6 miles northeast of Tallahassee. We meant 60 miles. Oops.


Transactions

WABZ-FM Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill (Albemarle NC) from Susquehanna Radio Corp. to Radio One.

WEXP-FM Brandon VT and WVAY-FM Wilmington VT from Vox Vermont LLC/Great Northern Radio LLC to Nassau Broadcasting II LLC.

| More Details |


Stock Talk

Stocks go lower with Coke
An earnings warning from Coca-Cola pushed stock prices down on Wednesday. The Dow Industrials dropped 86 points, or 0.8%, to 10,231.

Radio stocks followed the market lower, spurred on by a negative report from Lehman Brothers (see Radio News). The Radio Index fell 3.611, or 1.7%, to 214.138 - - a year-to-date low. Citadel plunged 5.8% and Entravision 4% as traders sold broadcast stocks.


Radio Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Wednesday

Company Symbol Close Change Company Symbol Close Change

Arbitron

ARB

38.92

-0.17

Jeff-Pilot

JP

49.06

-0.43

Beasley

BBGI

16.10

+0.10

Journal Comm.

JRN

17.86

+0.16

Citadel CDL
12.42 -0.77

Radio One, Cl. A

ROIA

14.51

-0.06

Clear Channel

CCU

32.98

-0.17

Radio One, Cl. D

ROIAK

14.42

-0.10

Cox Radio

CXR

15.40

-0.36

Regent

RGCI

5.99

-0.03

Cumulus

CMLS

13.50

-0.30

Saga Commun.

SGA

17.51

-0.41

Disney

DIS

23.01

-0.24

Salem Comm.

SALM

24.91

-0.43

Emmis

EMMS

18.36

-0.24

Sirius Sat. Radio

SIRI

2.89

-0.01

Entercom

ETM

35.20

-0.55

Spanish Bcg.

SBSA

8.55

-0.10

Entravision

EVC

7.85

-0.33

Univision

UVN

32.36

-0.52

Fisher

FSCI

49.00

+0.71

Viacom, Cl. A

VIA

34.60

-0.69

Gaylord

GET

31.23

+0.18

Viacom, Cl. B

VIAb

34.18

-0.81

Hearst-Argyle

HTV

24.94

-0.06

Westwood One

WON

21.23

-0.16

Interep

IREP

0.69

-0.02

XM Sat. Radio

XMSR

29.46

+0.30

International Bcg.

IBCS

0.02

unch

-

-

-

-

-


Have a news story you'd like to share? [email protected]

Bounceback

We want to
hear from you.

This is your column, so send your comments to [email protected]

We are honored by feedback like this.

I have never bothered to contact you and express my appreciation for the super job that is done to keep me (all of us?) so informed as to broadcasting situations and events. For that, I apologize, because admittedly, I have used information gleaned from your reports many times.

Thank you for the great job and great service that is provided.

Sincerely,
Bob Shive
WEDJ 107.1FM & WSYW 810AM
Hispanic Radio for Indianapolis


Stations For Sale

Rated New Mexico Market AM
Fabulous Potential!
Cliff at Clifton Gardiner & Co
(303)758-6900
[email protected]


More news Headlines

NAB Day Time Planner


The following brokers will be attending the NAB. Call or email to make your appointment in advance.

American Media Services,
Todd Fowler, Office 843-972-2200, Manchester Grand Hyatt, [email protected]

Cobb Corp.,
Denis LeClair [email protected]
Joel B. Day
[email protected]
Office 202-478-3737,
Manchester Grand Hyatt

Gordon Rice Associates,
Gordon Rice,
Office 843-884-3590,
Manchester Grand Hyatt,
[email protected]

John Pierce & Company LLC,
John Pierce, cell 859-512-3015,
Jamie Rasnick, cell 513-252-1186, Office 859-647-0101,
Manchester Grand Hyatt,
[email protected]

Kozacko Media Services,
Dick Kozacko,
Office 607-733-7138,
Cell 607-738-1219,
Manchester Grand Hyatt, [email protected]

Patrick Communications,
Larry Patrick, Office 410-740-0250, Manchester Grand Hyatt, [email protected]




August Digital Magazine

Complimentary Report
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We have the economic, political, and close up look at your 4th quarter of business
and what must be done to hit budget by year's end.

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tells it like it is on where he
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RBR Radar 2004
Click on these issues for Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

First reported here
in Tuesday's Bulletin
Consolidation within the Consolidator: CCU merging Premiere and CC Advantage operations into Katz
Clear Channel is putting Premiere Radio Networks and Clear Channel Advantage under Katz Media Group CEO Stu Olds. Premiere will keep its name, but CEO Kraig Kitchin will report to Olds. CC Advantage will merge with Katz Dimension, with the whole thing to be called Clear Channel Katz Advantage. It's not really a complete merger, but a lot is changing. Here's how it's going down: Premiere Radio Networks is not going away, but will have more interaction and direction from Katz Radio Group. RBR Observation: Katz has no history in programming. The original TranStar Radio Network (now part of Westwood One) was lost on Stu Olds' watch. CCU has still never successfully consolidated all the pieces of their empire - - Outdoor, Internet, network radio, concerts and spot. Perhaps this is another attempt at it. CCU is the only company that has the potential to compete on a national level with the Yahoos, the MTVs, etc, in order to put demand-side pressure on the inventory. Until they can do this, this industry is going to flounder. The question: are Stu Olds and Bonnie Press the people who can do this? 09/15/04 RBR #180

The Consolidator pt 2:
So, what's the motivation?
What does Clear Channel gain?
One industry source explained it: "I think Katz was off about 15% in July and off dramatically in August. Those businesses are off, the networks are off, everybody is off. They're looking for ways to cut costs. Another issue is these big buying agencies just can't comprehend this dinosaur-like way that radio is purchased. And agencies don't like to staff up for that heavy stuff. When you buy network TV, you get one bill and you pay one check. With radio, you have to cut like 200 checks and have a whole floor of people just doing paperwork. Clear Channel is the biggest operation in our business and they may be looking at some way to combine network and spot. I'm also hearing that Clear Channel may be coming up with some sort of Hispanic network. RBR Observation: They're taking all the Premiere stuff and putting it as part of Katz and it's going to be a competitive thing that Interep right now doesn't have. Radio needs to create some excitement. They've got to make radio relevant and this is one big attempt. They're thinking if they combine Premiere and Katz together, Premiere will have some new synergies.
09/15/04 RBR #180

Greater Media CEO says radio
has a greater mission
CEO Peter Smyth isn't taking an attack on the radio industry by Barron's magazine lying down. Smyth has sent the magazine a letter stating that he and many other broadcasters haven't been complacent, as the article alleged, in the face of technological and demographic changes. And he says that radio broadcasters are still developing new formats and working to better serve their local communities. Read his letter to the Barron's editor.
RBR observation: Barron's has already printed two letters responding to the article - - and the vote is an even split but the real bottom line is radio has a major crack in its wall and only some many fingers to plug the whole.
09/15/04 RBR #180

Radio One deal under attack
Robin M. Rothschild has challenged the license renewals of several Radio One properties in Ohio, and while that challenge is lending, is further challenging the group's qualifications as a suitable assignee of WABZ-FM Albemarle NC, which it has filed to acquire from Susquehanna and move into the Charlotte market. Rotchshild, though counsel Lee Shubert of Katten Muchin Zavis Rosenman, charges that license subsidiaries of Radio One "...have lacked candor and misrepresented facts in connection with the License Renewal Applications." 09/15/04 RBR #180

RBC warns investors of
soft radio revenues
David Bank is warning investors that radio revenues are pacing behind his previous expectations for Q3 - - and that Q4 is worrisome as well. In a note which headlined that Q3 for radio came in "like a lamb" and appears to be going out the same way.
RBR observation: Heads up people because the fourth Q is at risk. Now you can not point any finger at Naples, FL or Barron's or Forbes. Best read further on.
09/14/04 RBR #179


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