Welcome to RBR's Daily Epaper
Volume 24, Issue 238, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
Friday Morning December 7th, 2007

Radio News ®

What's going on in Houston?
Houston is the only PPM market to thus far win Media Rating Council (MRC) accreditation, but there are now reports circulating that that lone seal of approval could be withdrawn. Arbitron isn't commenting and the MRC is as super-secretive as ever. In his congressional testimony this week, NABOB Executive Director Jim Winston, pictured, spoke of Arbitron's Portable People Meter being up for "reaccreditation" in Houston because the company wants to switch to the same recruiting methodology used in Philadelphia and New York - and which Arbitron intends to use elsewhere. We hear that it is worse than that - that Arbitron failed a routine re-audit of PPM in Houston. The Houston PPM data reportedly failed to maintain minimum MRC standards even using the more expensive recruiting methodology dating back to Arbitron's efforts to enlist Nielsen in a joint venture to use PPM for both radio and television. Arbitron is said to be appealing that loss of accreditation and can continue to put the MRC double-check logo on its Houston PPM reports pending the outcome of that appeal.

Like all proceedings of the MRC, the appeal process is totally secret - so secret that Arbitron won't confirm or deny that there is an appeal going on, or that there is anything to be appealed. Arbitron Sr. VP Thom Mocarsky, told RBR that the company would abide by its contract with the MRC requiring confidentiality and not comment on anything to do with the MRC. But Mocarsky said the company had no problem with Winston's call for a congressional investigation of PPM and the MRC accreditation process. "We're all for transparency," he said, adding that Arbitron is happy to talk to anyone about the advantages of PPM and show that it uses representative and inclusive samples for all demographics and ethnic groups. RBR also asked the MRC to answer a couple of questions, but don't hold your breath - the last time MRC issued a public statement on anything was June 18, 2004.

RBR observation: At its meeting this week, the Arbitron Radio Advisory Council supported Arbitron continuing to roll out PPM to more markets without waiting for MRC accreditation (12/6/07 RBR #237), but we hear that the vote was not unanimous. Some radio groups are absolutely outraged that Arbitron is not able to meet the accreditation standards, but is continuing to move ahead with PPM. But we also understand that the PPM contracts which the groups have signed with Arbitron don't mention MRC accreditations, so there is no easy out if MRC doesn't give its seal of approval.

Tribune challenges FCC waiver grant
FCC Chairman Kevin Martin and the two other Republicans outvoted two Democratic commissioners, granting Tribune Company cross-ownership waivers of two years extendible to six months after all pending cross-ownership legal matters are resolved on 11/30/07. Tribune has turned around and appealed that decision, requesting either better waivers - either "permanent or more appropriate temporary waivers" - or the repeal of the rules in their entirety on Constitutional grounds. The appeal, filed at the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, says, "Tribune seeks review on the grounds that the Order is contrary to law, arbitrary and capricious, and not supported by substantial evidence. Furthermore, the Commission's ongoing enforcement of its newspaper/broadcast cross-ownership rule in its existing form is unconstitutional in violation of the First and Fifth Amendments." A small platoon of attorneys from Sidley Austin LLP headed by Carter G. Phillips submitted the filing on behalf of Tribune. Among those on the distribution list of the document are the FCC, the Newspaper Association of America, Gannett Broadcasting, the Teamsters, The Media Institute, the Media Access Project and several other law firms and legal institutions.

RBR observation: So let us see if we have here: The Third Circuit remanded the cross-ownership rules as proposed by Michael Powell's FCC in 2003 for revision or better justification. Current Chairman Kevin Martin put forth a more modest deregulation plan than did Powell, encouraged by the Third Circuit's verging-on-kind words about cross-ownership. Martin is naturally being attacked on both sides, for going too far or not going far enough. Martin wants to bring his proposal up for a vote in a little over a week, on 12/18/07. The Senate Commerce Committee, behind Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Trent Lott (R-MS), say no way and have gotten braking legislation out of committee but not yet onto the floor for full body consideration. Tribune is now bringing a different circuit court into the mix. Three of the most popular words in the Washington legal lexicon, "arbitrary and capricious," have once again been uttered. In short, it is looking more and more like our grandchildren will be the ones writing up the final result of this proceeding.


Analysts worry about ad slowdown
Even with a big political year on the horizon, two Wall Street analysts have cut their 2008 estimates for broadcasting stocks, citing concerns about advertiser pullbacks. "Local advertising appears to be in the midst of recessionary trends," said Bank of America's Jonathan Jacoby, pictured, as he issued a slew of estimate reductions for the radio companies that he covers. Rather than 1% growth for overall radio revenues in 2008, he is now expecting a 1% decline. From 2009 and beyond, he is projecting annual growth of around 1%. "Our channel checks indicate a weak local ad environment for local advertising mediums - buyers noting pressure as the weakening housing market 'spills-over' into other parts of the local economy," Jacoby wrote in a note to clients. He cut 2008 revenue estimates by an average 2% or so for CBS, Clear channel, Ditadel, Cox Radio, Emmis, Entercom and Radio One. Although Jacoby's estimate reductions yesterday were for public radio companies, he noted that similar pressures are affecting TV, newspapers and outdoor. "The local ad recession is also being felt a local television stations. For example, while Belo recently noted that political is helping Q4 2007, it still expects its TV station revenues to be down in the low-to-mid single digit range in Q4, when excluding political," Jacoby noted.

"With no economic recovery in sight coupled with the one-two punch of i) a slowdown in overall ad expenditures and ii) the reallocation of ad dollars to new media, we revised our long term and terminal revenue growth assumptions for our broadcast and outdoor companies," Wachovia's Marci Ryvicker said in her latest research report. Her outlook for radio is particularly dire, but she also lowered estimates for TV and outdoor. "We previously believed that radio would some day show some tip line growth, but after 24 consecutive months of revising our estimates downward, we now believe that 0% is more realistic (and potentially the best case) scenario long term," she wrote. In fact, the main reason she sees 2008 as flat for radio after a decline this year is non-spot revenue, including Internet and other digital revenue streams for radio stations, along with political. Of course, political will be a big deal for TV in 2008, so Ryvicker has not reduced her TV stock price projections as drastically as for radio. She is sticking with her view that TV revenues will be up 5.5% in 2008, with local up 4%, national spot 10%, syndication 3%, network 3% and TV Internet revenues 50%. But looking ahead to the tough comps in 2009, she has lowered her stock price projections for the TV groups that she covers, although she still sees upside potential for two diversified media companies, CBS and Entravision.

Political spending
going up, up and away

Custom research outfit PQ Media sees a primordial political soup perfectly suited to destroying all previous spending records for the category. Among them are the first election without a sitting president or VP since 1928, hot issues, a divided electorate and effective campaign fund-raising. The result is expected to be a 64% increase in spending over the 2004 election cycle, to 4.5B. That would amount to a 43.3% increase over 2006, which itself broke records despite its lack of a presidential campaign. Generally, when one party has an incumbent/veep on the ticket, it suppresses or eliminates primary competition, limiting the possibility of a free-for-all primary brawl to the party out of power. This time both parties have several serious and well-heeled candidates making a pitch for the nomination, a situation which is already fueling spending in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and which can be expected to reach a fever pitch in the run-up to the massive and geographically diverse population of conventions delegates that will be up for grabs on Super Duper Tuesday, 2/5/08.

Of the 4.5B, 3.03B is expected by PQ to be aimed at broadcast, print, cable, internet and outdoor, with the rest going to direct mail, PR, promotions and events. The 32.8% share grabbed by the marketing side is said to represent a share increase and is attributed to "more sophisticated databases that allow direct mail strategies to be targeted to specific regions in battleground states..." It is also expected that broadcast television will be saturated, with run-off benefiting other media. Still, broadcast TV will snag over half the cash, with a 51.3% share. Here's how spending by electoral category breaks down: Presidential 37.1%; Senate 19.4%, House 21.4%, Governor 4%, Local 18%.

RBR observation: The key for radio, first and foremost, is to be located in a battleground state or district. Of course there is little you can do about this -- you're either there or you aren't. Inventory management is going to be critical, but it will be even more important to make sure you're well positioned to catch the television run-off that we know is coming in numerous locales. Plan carefully.


CBS Radio reshuffles Philadelphia,
DC, Detroit, West Palm

CBS Radio announced several key staff appointments in Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Detroit, and West Palm Beach. Michael Weiss, CBS Radio's newly-appointed President of Sales is underscoring the Director of Sales position with these moves. As well, "Engaging with our advertisers in new ways, creating unique and relevant on-air and online campaigns and maximizing our resources across each cluster is clearly the best way for not only our clients to win, but to further position CBS Radio as the leader in the industry," he commented.

Marc Rayfield has been named SVP/Market Manager of their five stations in Philadelphia. In addition to serving as VP/GM of WIP-AM, Rayfield will take on the same responsibility at WPHT-AM, as well as oversee the direction of the entire cluster of stations there.

Jim Loftus, VP/GM of WOGL-FM, assumes the additional role of DOS for the cluster. David Yadgaroff continues as VP/GM of KYW-AM and WYSP-FM.

Jeff Hedges has been named VP/DOS for DC, where he will oversee sales at WJFK-FM, WLZL-FM, WPGC-AM, WPGC-FM, and WTGB-FM. He had most recently been VP/Sales of WJFK-FM, WLZL, and WTGB-FM.

Leading CBS Radio's sales efforts in Detroit will be Deb Kenyon, who also serves as VP/GM of WVMV-FM and WYCD-FM. CBS Radio also owns WOMC-FM, WWJ-AM and WXYT-FM and WXYT-AM there.

Radio vet Rolf Pepple returns to CBS Radio after a five year absence as SVP/Market Manager for West Palm Beach. He was most recently Vice President and Market Manager of NextMedia's stations in North Carolina. This new position provides him with direct oversight of WEAT-FM, WIRK-FM, WMBX-FM, WNEW-FM, and WPBZ-FM.

Stevens wants to speed up
fleeting legislation

Senate Commerce Committee Ranking Member Ted Stevens (R-AK) is trying to get an anti-indecency measure passed out of committee over the summer down to the Senate floor for a vote. Jay Rockefeller's S. 1780, the "Protecting Children from Indecent Programming Act" would codify the FCC's right to punish broadcast outlets for inadvertent fleeting indecent utterances. Stevens is a co-sponsor, as is committee chair Daniel Inouye (D-HI). In a release, Stevens explained that the bill "...would require the FCC to maintain a policy that the broadcast of a single word or image may be considered indecent." The FCC's defense of such a policy was shot down in the Second Circuit and a DoJ/FCC appeal is currently being considered by the Supreme Court.

"I urge the Senate to take up this important legislation," said Senator Stevens. "Radio and broadcast TV are still the way most Americans get their news and entertainment. Whether sitting in a car with your children or in front of the TV, the American public should be able to expect that they will not be barraged with unexpected indecent material, whether it is through an image or a word."

RBR observation: We would counter with this statement: "Whether sitting in a car with your children or in front of the TV, the American public should be able to expect that they will be able to hear and see live broadcasts of events of public interest or importance without broadcasters putting their bank accounts and/or licenses at risk from the nearest rowdy loud-mouthed jerk who can't control him/herself near a live mic." The risk of an inadvertent f-bomb being dropped within earshot of our children is no greater when tuned into broadcast programming than it is when out in public. The never-ending small-minded quixotic attempt by the PTC and certain pandering public officials to create a false white-washed image of American speech, all over an event that rarely ever occurs in the course of hundreds of thousands of hours of broadcast material each and every week, should be squashed by the adults in the Senate who have the brains to turn back this ridiculous assault on free speech.


Wall Street Business Report TM
Tribune cuts borrowing
Tribune Company still has lots of cash flow, so it is tapping cash on hand to reduce the amount it needs to borrow to finish going private. A half billion from the corporate coffers will reduce that round two of borrowing to 1.6 billion. Now that it has FCC waivers to maintain its broadcast-newspaper crossownership situations, at least for a while, the company says it expects to closed on the final step of its buyout of public shareholders by Sam Zell and an Employee Stock Ownership Plan by the end of this month.


Ad Business Report TM

2008 Radio-Mercury Awards call for entry begins today
The 2008 Radio-Mercury Awards Call for Entry officially begins accepting online entries today at RadioMercuryAwards.com. Radio-Mercury Award winning agency, Goodby, Silverstein & Partners, inspired the concept for the design of this year's call for entry and website. Radio's premier creative competition will give away 160,000 in cash prizes, including the coveted 100,000 grand prize, in recognition of excellence in Radio advertising creative. Six general prize winners each will be awarded 5,000; one winner from each of three new categories - Radio Innovations, Entertainment, and Political - will receive 5,000; and one winner each from the Radio-Station Produced, Spanish-Language, and Urban Categories also will be awarded 5,000. The Student Category Award winner's school will receive 2,500, and the PSA Category winner will have 2,500 donated to their charity of choice. The entry deadline is 2/22. Winners will be announced on 5/21 in LA.


Media Markets & Money TM
For EMF, this isn't Kansas
But it is Kansas City MO. The ever-more-ubiquitous noncommercial Religious group has a deal in place to acquire an FM in the market on the north side of the reserved band at 947.3 MHz. The station is KCXM-FM. The seller is Union Broadcasting Inc. According to brokerage Media Venture Partners, Union will remain active in the market with a pair of AM stations.


Executive Comment
R.I.P - P.P.M.
At this thanksgiving time we should all be thankful the PPM train is leaving the station and hopefully no one is aboard except the progeny Apollo and Prism, as it is out bound to a familiar destination of no return on investment. I am sure some will suffer PPPMD, post partum people meter depression. It was not that the PPM was a concept far ahead of its time; rather it was a concept whose time had past, more comfortable in the era of white belts, knit pants, pocket protectors and supply side economics.

However the concept was a great success if you were love marked by the vampiric gods of technology. If you believe that technology is the end in it self, then PPM's promise was all you needed to hear to become one of the chosen. The power and confidence of blind faith, where the new math of 70 GRPS can equal 100 GRPS, enabled mid level management zealots of the radio industry to high jack a whole industry by invoking the chant of "it's the future, it's the cure, it will deliver us from the sins of diaries, the PPM is the sign and the signal of the coming of the digital industry".
| Read Joe's full comment |

Joe Pilotta
Vice President
BIGresearch


Washington Business Report TM
More on repurposing Channel 6
Engineer Robert E. Lee has replied to MSTV opposition to a proposal to reallocate spectrum currently used for television Channel 6 and use it instead for FM radio. Another proposal would also annex Channel 5; however, Lee says that much can be done on Channel 6 alone. For example, the five channels from 82.1 MHz to 82.9 MHz could be the LPFM zone, with current LPFM incumbents given ample time to migrate there, enabling a massive increase in allocation possibilities without interference concerns. Likewise, 83.1 MHz-83.9 MHz could become translators for AM daytimers. Finally, the remaining new channels, 84.1 MHz-87.9 MHz would be used to expand the reserved band. Noncoms operating to the north of the current 91.9 MHz reserved band boundary would be given priority to move into the new territory, and the openings created in the commercial band would be used first to eliminate grandfathered short-spacings, and then for new allocations. Lee suggests that the new NCE frequencies between 84.1 MHz-87.9 MHz be maxed out at 50 kw (Class B/Class C2) to maximize capacity.

RBR observation: Isn't this another perfect staging area for internal warfare among members of the NAB? But it really does seem like a good idea in so many ways, especially if TVs and LPTVs can easily be migrated to new digital territory. If Channel 5 spectrum is roped in for FM as well, it would open up fertile ground for minority-, female- and SDB-ownership in a way no other proposal we've seen can possibly even approach. We're not tech experts, but this sure seems like an idea worthy of further serious consideration.


Media Business Report TM
Aegis' Posterscope USA adding digital out-of-home
Aegis Media Americas announced that Posterscope USA, one of the top outdoor adg buyers in the nation is adding new capabilities in digital out-of-home, event marketing, retail programming and brand experience creation. Carat Brand Experience, Aegis Media Americas' event and experiential marketing unit will join Posterscope USA and be renamed The Brand Experience. Posterscope USA is part of the Posterscope Worldwide network, the largest buyer of outdoor space in the world. This move comes on the heels of an announcement made this summer when Posterscope USA launched its Hyperspace division. Hyperspace is the first Digital out-of-home specialist agency in the US, modeled after and created by Posterscope Europe. In six months, Hyperspace in the US has built a client roster that includes Lifetime Television, TiVo, Pernod Ricard, Motorola, Hyundai, Kia, Pfizer, Vh1, and Reebok.


Transactions
50K KMCL-AM Donnelly ID from Brundage Mountain Air Inc. (David S. Eaton) to Mountain Aire LLC (Holly Larsen). Entire amount place in escrow and released to seller at closing. Seller also takes over LMA of KMCL-FM McCall ID. [File date 11/19/07.]


Stock Talk
Stocks rally on credit plan
Wall Street applauded a Bush Administration plan to bail out homeowners with subprime mortgage problems. The Dow Industrials rose 175 points, or 1.3%, to 13,620.

Radio stocks had a good day, despite a round of estimate reductions by analysts. The Radio Index rose 1.163, or 1.2%, to 99.546. Emmis shot up 5.4% and Salem 5.2%.


Radio Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Thursday

Company Symbol Close Change Company Symbol Close Change

Arbitron

ARB

41.99

+1.41

Google

GOOG

715.26

+16.75

Beasley

BBGI

6.77

+0.02

Hearst-Argyle

HTV

19.94

+0.16

CBS CI. B CBS

27.13

-0.09

Journal Comm.

JRN

8.98

+0.15

CBS CI. A CBSa

27.13

-0.05

Lincoln Natl.

LNC

62.27

+0.94

Citadel CDL
1.98 -0.02

Radio One, Cl. A

ROIA

2.03

+0.03

Clear Channel

CCU

35.46

+0.43

Radio One, Cl. D

ROIAK

2.05

+0.05

Cox Radio

CXR

11.53

-0.27

Regent

RGCI

1.83

+0.02

Cumulus

CMLS

8.35

-0.14

Saga Commun.

SGA

6.69

+0.02

Debut Bcg.

DBTB

0.95

unch

Salem Comm.

SALM

7.12

+0.35

Disney

DIS

32.72

-0.03

Sirius Sat. Radio

SIRI

3.61

-0.02

Emmis

EMMS

4.47

+0.23

Spanish Bcg.

SBSA

1.74

+0.01

Entercom

ETM

15.94

-0.27

SWMX

SMWX

0.01

unch

Entravision

EVC

7.61

+0.13

Westwood One

WON

2.11

+0.07

Fisher

FSCI

38.63

-0.21

XM Sat. Radio

XMSR

15.35

+0.10


Bounceback

Send Us Your OpinionsWe want to
hear from you.

This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]

It was with initial disdain that I read Mr.. Campbell's bitter old opinion in Tuesdays RBR (12/4/07 RBR #235). Then after further thought I felt rather sorry for him. Here is someone who appears to have been quite successful in his radio career yet has had that beaten out of him. With the passion that Mr. Campbell speaks against radio, he could have used that for good, influencing changes in his marketplace and station. Radio is much more then ten in a row and today's best country. It's about affecting the lives of our listeners, and our clients in a positive way. No other media in America can reach right to the listener and client and make the bond that radio can.

When a client invests with our stations, the ripple effect is much larger than we give credit. We won't just run his schedule. We will bring business to his door. Which in turn will allow him to make more money, pay his employees a higher wage and reinvest in his company. His employees are then able to do the things they wish in their lives. When a client invests in our stations, we in turn are able to not only do the same but make our community a better place to live with the many charitable events that only radio does. How many events do other media do in a year? I will put any radio station against other media when it comes to leaving a better foot print in the towns we call home.

When we stop beating on each other and reading our own obituaries and realize that it's not about me, it's about the client (whether that's main street or our listeners) then revenue will take care of itself.

Tom Sheldon CRMC
Director of Programming 96.1 KSTR
Grand Junction, CO




Below the Fold
Executive Comment
R.I.P - P.P.M.
Joe Pilotta, VP, Big Research
At this thanksgiving time we should all be thankful the PPM train is leaving...

Wall Street Business Report
Tribune cuts borrowing
Still has lots of cash flow, so it is tapping cash on hand...

Media Business Report
Aegis' Posterscope USA
Adding digital out-of-home...

Washington Business Report
More on repurposing Channel 6
Engineer Robert E. Lee has replied to MSTV opposition to a proposal to...




Stations for Sale

Silver City, NM
Powerful Hispanic FM
Lovington, NM
Heritage AM/FM Combo
Explorer Communications
E-mail: [email protected]

Seller Financing Available
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(843) 884-3590
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Contact
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RBR Radar 2007
Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Advisory Council backs PPM,
but wants it fixed
Arbitron has agreed to tighten its money-back guarantee for its Portable People Meter (PPM) sample, moving to an 80% guarantee for the 18-54 target, rather than the previously announced guarantee of 90% of the 6+ target. In the conference call with reporters, a first for the RAC (which is usually less formal), DuCoty stressed that the RAC still supports the continued rollout of PPM while Arbitron works on winning Media Rating Council (MRC) accreditation. And he said the RAC "is supportive of the Philadelphia and Houston PPM measurement currently in the market" and has been assured by Arbitron that the ratings company will work to address concerns about sample performance and accreditation in those markets.

RBR observation: The RAC and Arbitron's biggest station group clients are clearly holding the company's feet to the fire. Although there have been lots of complaints and concerns about PPM, the bottom line is that the radio companies have a lot of revenues at stake and they want PPM to work. They want Arbitron to deliver what was promised, but they also know that electronic measurement is vital to radio's future. This week's meetings may have been heated, but the March 2008 RAC meeting in Orlando will be even more heated if substantial progress isn't made by that time.
12/06/07 RBR #237

Arbitron spells out new guarantee
"The Arbitron Radio Advisory Council has recommended that we narrow the guardrails of our current PPM sample guarantee to Persons 18-54. We have considered the Council's recommendation and believe that a Persons 18-54 guarantee is an appropriate next step in our efforts to enhance the quality of our PPM services," said Arbitron CEO Steve Morris - There is more in this report page of RBR
12/06/07 RBR #237

Oh where, oh where has
our industry (Radio) gone?
Gail Lawing , VP/Regional Manager, Regional Reps Corp -With all due respect to the mega-group leaders out there, no need to mention names, but the sad state of affairs that Radio is in today can be directly correlated to the effect of homogenized radio, all stations sound the same, and at the sales end, going after share...wasn't that always TV terminology? In the process, rate integrity was lost, this was even alluded to at one of the conferences during the Radio Show in Charlotte, with all the "Heads of State" sitting at one table, "we as an industry needed to get away from share," you are right about that! At this point I know my boss is cringing, but in my humble opinion, here are the facts as I see and hear them on a daily basis... Read Gail's full comment in RBR
12/06/07 RBR #237

Clear Channel closing
won't come until 2008
While still awaiting regulatory approval for its private equity buyout, Clear Channel Communications announced plans to pay a regular quarterly dividend to its current shareholders. The buyout, but that closing will not come before the end of 2007. The company said it intends to exercise its right to extend the termination date for the buyout, which had been set for December12th. The new termination date will be June 12, 2008.

RBR observation: The shareholders have voted to approve the deal and the parties insist that the financing is holding firm, but what it holding up those regulatory approvals? It is hard to imagine that there is anything for the DOJ antitrust watchdogs to really consider, since the company is not growing through a merger, just changing owners. We didn't think there was any reason for anyone at the FCC to object, either, but then Commissioner Michael Copps voted "no" on the sale of the Clear Channel TV group to Providence Equity Partners - not that he bothered to cite any legal basis for his no vote, just a vague concern that the FCC hadn't looked into the implications of private equity investment in media. Copps seems to think that is something new. Wake up Commissioner, private equity funds have been investing in radio and TV for decades. So hold your breath for another 6 months.
12/05/07 RBR #236

Executive Comment: Saga's Steve Goldstein responds to Randy Kabrich
Anyone who thinks the transition from the 40-year-old diary to a brand new technology will happen without bumps and glitches is not grounded in reality.. Radio is in a more difficult place than ever. The diary is challenged and it is likely that if it were presented to the MRC today would not meet the criteria for accreditation. Advertisers are demanding more accountability, or they will continue to move dollars to other media which have already made the move to electronic measurement. Radio is behind the curve because, as an industry we are not unified. Infighting, negativity, misinformation and head-in-the-sand pontification are combining to cost us money.
12/05/07 RBR #236




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