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Volume 21, Issue 241, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
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Monday Morning December 13th, 2004
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Radio News®
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 What's Citadel worth?
CEO Farid Suleman hung a "for sale" sign on the company at last week's UBS Securities conference, but will there be any takers? For sure Forstmann Little would want to get at least the IPO price of 19 bucks a share. Including debt, that's a price tag of nearly three billion. Frankly, we think Ted Forstmann is going to be a broadcaster for longer than he'd planned.
RBR observation: As for Farid we don't believe he ever made the statement he was in this operation to wait and receive a gold watch. | More... |
A vulture's eye view of Citadel
When thinking of the many legendary companies that have sizzled the American airwaves with news and entertainment, the name of Citadel Broadcasting owner Forstmann Little is not likely to come up. It doesn't have broadcasting in its blood - - its m.o. is to take a stack of dollar bills and turn it into a bigger stack. Therefore, it wasn't at all surprising when Citadel CEO Farid Suleman mentioned hung a "for sale" sign on the radio group. What a buyer would get, according to the latest posting on the group's website, is a 219-station group tilted heavily to the FM side of the spectrum, 161-58. All but four of these are in Arbitron-rated markets.
RBR observation: There is no room for Citadel in the Clear Channel portfolio, but for three of radio's other mega-groups - - Viacom/Infinity, Disney/ABC and Cumulus - - it would make a very snug fit. | More... |
Saga EVP Steve Goldstein warns radio
to embrace change at Arbitron fly-in
Saga EVP and Arbitron Radio Advisory Council member Steve Goldstein discussed how radio needs to jump in with all of these other companies and concerns (agencies and so forth)-accept we need to change and get it done-at Arbitron's annual consultants Fly-In last week: "My real point was that in the past 10 years that we've had pretty seismic changes in our business, but not just our business-other elements in the media business as well. And I mentioned some of them. For example, the DVD business is now bigger than the movie business. The movie biz is a 9.5 billion business, but DVDs are a 16.3 billion dollar business. Clearly, in the last 10 years a seismic change. And if you recall, the movie companies were frightened to death of video. And now, here it is and it has changed their business... "
RBR observation: One more time again from the top - Irwin Gottlieb, CEO of Group M states to all: "If you are afraid of change this might be a good time to leave the business. If you choose to hang on and pursue opportunity buckle up because it's going to be a terrific ride." More in the January Radio & Television Business Report - The Real Business Magazine - where the rubber meets the road and tells it like it is. Contact April McLynn 703 492-8191 to mail you a copy. Snooze you lose in '05. | More... |
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Howard Stern may resort to playing records
before Sirius move?
Howard Stern dispelled rumors on his Friday show that he wants to move to Sirius Satellite Radio earlier than expected, but warned he's on the verge of becoming a regular DJ that "plays records." "I'm not looking to get out of my contract," Stern said on Friday's broadcast. "I want to finish my year here." On Tuesday, Infinity President Joel Hollander said the company was not yet willing to give up the ad revenues that Stern generates and that the plan now is for Stern to stay on the air in the 46 markets that now carry his show until his contract is up in 2006. On Friday, Stern said the plan was fine by him, except for one thing. Stern said that Viacom, in agreeing to pay a 3.5 million fine last month to settle charges that it had violated federal anti-obscenity laws, agreed to suspend or fire Stern if it receives another complaint from the FCC. The provisions, which Stern just discovered, outraged the radio star. He made it clear that he wants neither to be fired nor suspended. "I am now faced with a terrible dilemma," said Stern, who listed sex and race as two topics he may no longer discuss on the air. "I have not agreed to this," he said. "If Viacom wants to give power to the [anti-indecency] kooks, I'm okay with that. But don't take it out on me. Don't make me the fall guy." Stern's solution to controversial content that might draw a complaint to the FCC: "I'll play records." He also said something along the lines of Infinity is "setting me up [for the fall]."
RBR observation: Got to admit this is fun reading this stuff on a Monday. Stern says this and Infinity's Hollander said that - both getting good press, wouldn't you agree? But this is the kind of programming that works in competition - Get your competitor to self implode. We are waiting to see which one of these two blows up first. This has got to be a movie of Private Parts 2.
 Caution trumped optimism
at investor conferences
If you listened to the broadcast company presentations at last week's UBS and CSFB investor conferences in New York, what you didn't hear was anyone touting 2005 as a big growth year. About the only one with a bullish outlook was Universal McCann forecaster Bob Coen (12/7/04 RBR #237). He's looking for national radio to be up 5.2%, local radio 5%, national spot TV down 1% and local TV up 2.5%. Most broadcasters aren't yet to the point of giving guidance for full-year 2005. They're standing by their Q4 guidance - - and a couple of TV companies have recently increased their guidance because political was even better than they'd expected (Salem alone in radio has increased guidance, but it is a one-of-a-kind company) - - but nobody is going out on a limb about '05. Media General and Scripps are among the few companies giving 2005 guidance this early, and both are anticipating negative TV revenue numbers, well below Coen's forecast for the industry (12/8/04 TVBR #238). Viacom's Infinity Broadcasting hasn't given any '05 guidance of its own, but President Joel Hollander told the UBS gathering that he'd be happy to see Coen's 5% come true. Likely other radio group heads feel the same way. They all like Clear Channel's "Less is More" initiative, but they're all waiting to see how it really plays out in 2005. And nobody is putting his neck on the line to declare that the bad times are over and it's back to robust growth.
History 101 repeats itself, learn from this
You have to go back a bit to find another era in radio quite like the one we've been in for the past few years, but Wachovia Securities analyst Jim Boyle sees similarities with the early 1950s. Boyle, who was himself in diapers then, has been doing some research on the era. "The last time the radio sector suffered five consecutive sub-par years was in 1951 through 1955. A new ad-supported media, Broadcast TV, had severely hit radio's audience and revenues. A new technology enabled longer-playing portable music, a threat to some of radio's programs. The geopolitical picture was still settling down from the Korean War. The economy had seen two lackluster years during the 1949-1954 span," Boyle notes. Sound familiar? But then the good news: "Yet, from 1956-60, the buffeted sector returned to near normal 5% revenue growth." Boyle isn't suggesting that investors buy radio stocks and hold on for the inevitable upturn. "It could be a long wait," he says. He's still touting a couple of niche players as the best bets, and only for long-term investors - - Univision and Radio One, which he says should substantially outperform their general market peers in the medium to long term.
Publisher note: History is good to learn where we come from so we know where to go in the future. Young CEO's lesson 101 since many were not even born in 1950 no less in the radio business. Hell, I was only age one in 1950 so a tip of the history research hat to Jim Boyle. Thanks.
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Adbiz©
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Nielsen Monitor-Plus:
US ad spend rose 8.3% in first three quarters
Advertising spending for the first three quarters 2004 rose 8.3% over the same period last year, due to gains across major media, according to preliminary figures released today by Nielsen Monitor-Plus, the advertising intelligence service of Nielsen Media Research. The pace of ad spending in 2004 continues to escalate. First-half spending grew at a rate of 6%, while third quarter rose 11%, resulting in an overall gain of 8.3% through the end of the third quarter. "Ad spending has consistently grown with each quarter in 2004. This is very encouraging and suggests a strong total-year gain," said Jeff King, managing director of Nielsen Monitor-Plus. "The Summer Olympics, with total spending reaching over $1.8 billion, contributed too much of Network and Cable's increase, while Spot TV was helped by Political advertising. Through September, Automotive advertising experienced the largest dollar increase, with the Prescription Drug and Quick Service Restaurant categories following. These three categories contributed to an overall increase of $1.25 billion compared to same period last year." Ad spend increased in almost all reported media, led by television and print. Included for the first time in this analysis, Monitor-Plus reports spending on over 800 trade publications. | More... |
 Monster, Infinity
strike ad deal
Employment website Monster.com on signed a one-year deal with Infinity Broadcasting to promote its products online and on the air. The contract begins this month and extends Monster's presence to 180 radio stations in 41 U.S. markets, serving 70 million weekly listeners and Infinity online visitors. The one-year agreement begins in December. Local jobs by area employers will be promoted to inspire and motivate radio listeners to take advantage of local opportunities and career enhancement tools on Monster. Infinity stations will also provide customized on-air Monster messaging featuring job listings from local employers specific to each market and job search success stories will be rewarded with on-air recognition and prizes. Monster will also highlight career enhancement tools and advice from Monster experts regarding a range of topics, including resume writing tips and interview skills, via Infinity stations nationwide. The agreement also incorporates various online elements, including advertising on Infinity radio station websites, as well as a co-branded micro site for each station where site visitors can find links to local job listings, search features and incentives. "We are excited to develop this new relationship with Monster, a leader in the online career category, and utilize our extensive reach to consumers nationwide to convey their important message," said David Goodman, EVP/Marketing, Infinity. "Our stations will provide Monster with a platform to generate a consistent marketing presence throughout the year and allow us to provide targeted career advice and job opportunities to millions of listeners in a localized and personal format."
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| Media Markets & MoneyTM |
November grew double digits at Journal
Sure political played a role, but there was a lot more than that going on in November at Journal Broadcast Group, which has been busy building up some underdeveloped broadcast properties this year. Radio revenues shot up 10.1% to 7.4 million - - the sort of figure you'd expect from a TV group bulging with political ad dollars. For Journal's TV group, the numbers are even more impressive. Revenues soared 46.9% to 9.3 million. Now, that includes recently-acquired WGBA-TV Green Bay and LMA partner WACY-TV, but even without them, same station revenues were up 31.1%. In all, broadcasting revenues were up 28% to 16.7 million. For the newspaper wing of parent Journal communications, November revenues were up 1.7% to 26.5 million, with ad revenues up 3.8% to 20.2 million.
More from Harrisonburg
We have a few more details on the deal Jeff Shapiro has struck with Shenandoah Valley Television to acquire a pair of FMs in the Harrisonburg VA market. The basic outline of the deal is this: Shapiro's Force 5 Communications is getting WSIG-FM Mount Jackson and WBOP-FM Churchville for 3.1M cash. Mitt Younts of Envest Media noted that the stations were making their livings on a diet of Classics: Classic Rock in the case of WBOP and Classic Country in the case of WSIG. There are two items of interest, however. One is that the stations do not even form a duopoly, under either the old contour rules or under the new Arbitron/geo rules, for two reasons. 1) The stations do not have overlapping contours. Churchville is about 25 miles southwest of Harrisonburg, and Mount Jackson is about 25 miles northeast. 2) WBOP-FM is listed above the line in the Spring 2004 Arbitron book, while WSIG-FM is not. Ironically, WSIG came from nowhere to burst into the market's upper echelon of rated stations in that book, while above-the-line WBOP endured a slump and finished with less than a fourth of the rating posted by its below-the-line sister. Also, sitting across from Younts at the negotiating table was Richard Foreman, representing the buyer. Younts was working on behalf of the seller.
Viacom completes SportsLine buy
Viacom announced Friday that it had completed its buyout of other shareholders in SportsLine.com. The online sports site is now a division of CBS Sports. Viacom bought out the public shareholders at 1.75 per share, up from its initial offer of 1.50 (7/2/04 RBR #129), for a total of around 46 million.
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| Washington Beat |
 RTNDA condemns reporter's sentence
WJAR-TV Providence's Jim Taricani may not be spending any time behind bars, but the Radio Television News Directors Association (RTNDA) is still condemning a federal judge for sentencing the reporter to six months of home detention for refusing to reveal a confidential source to a special prosecutor. "Jim Taricani has been placed in this position because the law does not recognize that reporters are obliged to protect the confidentiality of their sources. An increasing number of journalists are facing loss of personal liberty because of their efforts to inform the public of wrongdoing. It is time for a federal shield law to protect reporters like Jim and those facing contempt of court rulings in other ongoing investigations," said RTNDA President Barbara Cochran. In a related move, RTNDA and a number of other news organizations are announcing a national effort tomorrow to inform the public of the need to retain open access to government records - - another area where established journalistic practices are under attack.
Big name threesome caught in FCC Mt. Wilson dragnet
Media giants Viacom/Infinity, GE/Telemundo and minority leader Radio One were all nailed for 10K dollars apiece by the FCC for exceeding RF limits at stations located on Mt. Wilson in the Los Angeles market. Two FMs and a television station were the targets in the bust, which dates back to a summer 2002 inspection. The stations are Radio One's KKBT-FM, Infinity's KRTH-FM and Telemundo's KWHY-TV. The rules in question are designed to protect both the general public and employees from excessive exposure to RF radiation. FCC agents inspecting the site had no problem getting to it, and that was the problem. The tower location was near a post office and the Mt. Wilson Observatory and Park, both locations visited frequently by the general public. The tower area was not fully fenced or gated, and sufficient warnings were not posted. A fourth 10K fine has already been paid by Clear Channel regarding co-located KBIG-FM. CC did not contest the fine. The other three companies made various arguments in their defense, which were not accepted by the Commission.
Washington roundup: Tauzin defeated
Billy Tauzin III, the son of outgoing House icon Billy Tauzin II[ (R-LA), was narrowly defeated by Democrat Charles Melancon for the seat in Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District. Melancon squeaked in by 569 votes, less than 0.5% of the nearly 115K cast. Meanwhile, Judge Charles Pickering decided to exit the bench. His nomination to the Fifth Circuit had been held up by Democrats, which so infuriated Trent Lott (R-MS) that he in turn held the nomination of then FCC Commissioner-in-waiting Jonathan Adelstein hostage. Lott eventually let Adelstein off the hook, only to move on to a new run wielded by John McCain (R-AZ). Pickering backed onto the bench via a recess nomination.
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| Programming |
 Tom Joyner to get TV show
Tom Joyner, host of "The Tom Joyner Morning Show," has announced specifics for a new syndicated television show that plans to be on the air by Fall 2005. The one-hour, standalone comedy/variety show will tap into Joyner's built-in fan base as well as the significant promotional machine offered by Reach Media, parent of the "Tom Joyner Morning Show." "TV is a natural, tremendous opportunity for Tom, and we believe his audience will follow," said David Kantor, Reach CEO. "Tom is one of the most popular, respected and influential African Americans in the country. He is an entertainer, but he is also so much more, which is why everyone from major advertisers to top political officials continue to gravitate in a big way toward him and his show."
RBR observation: Talk about cross-promotion. Here is an excellent chance to show how radio and television can work together to grow one another. If you are a Joyner radio affiliate you win. Those that dropped him you lose. Now make a decision because this is cross program-marketing at its potential best. | More... |
Jerry Springer gets radio show on WSAI-FM
Jerry Springer will begin hosting a three-hour weekday radio talk show in January on CC Radio's WSAI-AM Cincinnati's when the station switches from oldies music to liberal talk. He said on Thursday that he wants to syndicate the show nationally. The station had been negotiating with Springer for months. The one-year radio commitment will not affect Springer's daytime TV show taped in Chicago. Springer will do the radio show Monday through Wednesday from Chicago before taping his TV shows and will broadcast Thursday and Friday from Cincinnati.
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| Monday Morning Makers & Shakers |
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Transactions: 11/1/04-11/5/04
And then it was back to the doldrums. After one really hot week, then a pretty good value week with lots of volume, November opened up with almost no activity. And what little there was took place beyond the reach of the ratings companies. Didn't even get all that close to 10M, and there was no TV activity.
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Total
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Total Deals
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6
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AMs
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4
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FMs
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5
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TVs
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0
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| Value |
6.3875M
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| Complete Charts |
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Radio Transactions of the Week
The Keys are the key for Vox
| More... |
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TV Transactions of the Week
Napping. Try again next week
| More... |
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| Transactions |
KRCG-TV Columbia-Jefferson City MO (Jefferson City MO) from Mel Wheeler Nc. to Barrington Broadcasting
KQVO-FM El Centro-Mexicali CA (Calexico CA) from Hanson Broadcasting Company of California to State of California, San Diego State University.
WCMS-AM Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News (Norfolk VA) from Barnstable Corp. to Davidson Media Group LLC.
| More... |
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| Stock Talk |
Stocks down slightly on mixed news
Good news: GE and SBC raised their dividends and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was up. Bad news: Delphi said it would lose money in 2005 and the Labor Department's producer price index was up more than expected. The verdict: Traders sent stock prices slightly lower on Friday. The Dow Industrials slipped 10 points to 10,543.
Likewise for radio stocks. The Radio Index slipped 0.018, or 0.01%, to 221.186. The biggest moves were to the upside - - 2.4% by Regent, 2.2% by Journal (on stellar November revenue numbers) and 2% by Fisher. Clear Channel was down 1.4% and Cox Radio 1%.
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| Radio Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Friday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Arbitron
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ARB
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37.72
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-0.23
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Jeff-Pilot
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JP
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51.61
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+0.90
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Beasley
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BBGI
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16.11
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+0.20
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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17.45
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+0.38
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| Citadel |
CDL |
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15.41 |
+0.06 |
Radio One, Cl. A
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ROIA
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14.18
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-0.05
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Clear Channel
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CCU
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33.30
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-0.48
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Radio One, Cl. D
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ROIAK
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14.22
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+0.04
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Cox Radio
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CXR
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15.36
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-0.16
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Regent
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RGCI
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5.49
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+0.13
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Cumulus
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CMLS
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14.98
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-0.12
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Saga Commun.
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SGA
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17.00
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+0.04
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Disney
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DIS
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27.63
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+0.01
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Salem Comm.
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SALM
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25.20
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+0.38
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Emmis
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EMMS
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18.10
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-0.02
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Sirius Sat. Radio
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SIRI
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7.59
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+0.42
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| Entercom |
ETM
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35.19
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-0.24
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Spanish Bcg.
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SBSA
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10.21
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+0.11
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Entravision
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EVC
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7.85
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unch
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Univision
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UVN
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27.90
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-0.25
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Fisher
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FSCI
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47.26
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+0.93
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Viacom, Cl. A
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VIA
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35.47
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-0.10
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Gaylord
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GET
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38.39
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+0.44
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Viacom, Cl. B
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VIAb
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34.72
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-0.21
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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25.76
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+0.33
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Westwood One
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WON
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25.38
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-0.18
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Interep
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IREP
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0.76
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+0.01
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XM Sat. Radio
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XMSR
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38.64
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+0.52
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International Bcg.
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IBCS
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0.02
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unch
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-
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-
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- |
-
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-
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__UNSUB__ to this email service.
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Urgent Request
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 Now many that know Cathy and me personally, know we go the distance. This request for your assistance is from two people who have a vehicle of RBR & TVBR and are trying to help and bring a Merry Christmas to 40 lonely soldiers in a far away place and seeing the worst of war. Will you help us to help the medics & soldiers during this Holiday Season?
Ship to:
SFC Melick.
325th Field Hospital
APO AE 09355
Thank you and Merry Christmas
Jim & Cathy Carnegie
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments to [email protected]
Yet more on "Less is More"
"I would like to share some thoughts with you based on reading your article "Research Shows: Less Really Is More" in the December 8, 2004, issue of RBR.
First, it would be interesting to know whether or not the "Less is More" research, which Randall Mays discussed at the UBS Securities Conference, was designed and conducted by one of Clear Channel's "in-house" research firms -- owned, staffed, and managed by Clear Channel, or by an outside research firm with no organizational or employment connection to Clear Channel, where the appearance of a conflict of interest would not be present, as it would be if the research was conducted by one of Clear Channel's "in-house" firms. This is a question that you might want to look into; as I would guess that most of the folks in the advertising and securities business may not be aware of Clear Channel's "in-house" research companies including Critical Mass Media and Broadcast Architecture. | More... |
Larry Campbell, President
Campbell Media Research,
Seattle, WA
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Upped & Tapped
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WCBS-FM names
Ezio Torres GSM
Chad Brown, Vice President/General Manager of WCBS-FM has announced Ezio Torres, as General Sales Manager, effective 12/27. Torres was most recently Director of National Sales for the Radio One in Washington, D.C. He served as Director of Market Development for Clear Channel's WWDC-FM and WIHT-FM, where he also served as the LSM. Torres also held the National position at WFOX-FM, Atlanta. He began his radio career at Katz Radio Group, New York.
Holden to run CC Radio/Sacramento
CC Radio today announced the appointment of Jeffrey Holden to Regional Vice President, Sacramento. Holden will now be responsible for the day-to-day operations of stations in Sacramento which include KFBK-AM, KGBY-FM, KHYL-FM, and KSTE-AM.
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TVBR - TV News
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Will FCC torch
the Olympics?
NBC has turned over tapes of the opening ceremonies of the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens Greece, requested by the FCC as it investigates at least one indecency complaint aimed at the program. The nature and number of the complaint(s) is unknown. However, the FCC has frequently noted that one complaint is sufficient to trigger an investigation. Actor depictions of statues of ancient Greek characters and a pregnant woman are believed to figure into the complaint.
See Photo
TVBR observation: Sure, the FCC needs only one complaint to trigger an investigation. But does every complaint get one? Are there none that can be "laughed out of court?" We don't know how many people watched this, but it can be measured in the hundreds of millions, right? And now, months later, someone finally figured out that we have all had more indecency inflicted upon us? C'mon.
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November Digital
Solutions Magazine
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Cutting inventory and the effects--GM Talkback
Larry Wert,
Pres/Gm NBC's - WMAQ-TV,
Tom Bender,
GM Greater Media/Detroit,
Mike Mazursky,
GM 4M Communications
page 6
Laying the Hits down -
Boom Boom Boom
Listen to past great air checks of
George Michael
WFIL-AM
Fred Winston's classic
NewYears Day Hangover Club &
Bob DeCarlo with Tommy Turntable
page 12
Read RBR in 2 simple steps:
1.Create a simple account with Zinio and download the Zinio Reader.
2. You can then download the November Issue of RBR
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RBR Radar 2004
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Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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2005: CFOs put the bull in the barn
Finding are more interesting than from CEO's or COO's because these CFO know where the money is and coming from. They have the trends and they are less bullish about the economy in 2005. Widespread concern - rising health care, federal budget deficit, rising energy costs and interest rates. Worries of domestic terrorism have a dampening effect on overall business results. A quarter ago, CFOs were looking for a 3.1% increase in hiring for '05 but that number has dwindled into fractional territory, to 0.8%. Outsourcing is expected to increase. Cap-ex is also expected to be flat. The 3.8% growth rate is said to represent only replacement level spending. And on an ominous note for readers of TVBR, expectations for advertising expenditure have been more than halved, down to only a 2.3% increase for the year. CFOs also lowball economic gains compared to Wall Street. They are looking for a 2.8% increase in GDP, compared to a 3.3% consensus forecast on The Street. Despite all this, the CFOs are expecting their own companies to fare OK, with an expected earnings increase of 11%. RBR observation: Want the true then go where the money is not just More talk from CEO's or COO's. The CFO is the one that is truly in control of operations today and we all know it. Now, CFO's get out from the behind your numbers at get to the front lines where the real fighting is going on. Go to key events besides banker crap. Attend the RAB, TVB, 4A's conferences and go where the real street action is. 12/10/04 RBR #240
Cable penetration hits 10-year low; satellite continue surge
More American TV households are receiving cable programming via an alternate delivery system (ADS/satellite) than ever before while wired cable lost 300,000 subscribers and saw its penetration percentage hit a 10-year low, according to a TVB analysis of Nielsen Media Research data for November 2004.
RBR observation: If you track or pace the process then click and print the charts. We do to follow the trend. Worth tacking in your programming and sales department and put in your media kits. Again we recommend print out the charts to develop your own pacing trends. Do not rely on any trade association to do your job. 12/10/04 RBR #240
Arbitron claims PPM recruiting success in Houston
Over 52% of the households targeted for the first wave of PPM recruitment agreed to participate. The company says fault rates are also low. Response levels had been a big concern during the initial PPM test in Philadelphia, but Arbitron thinks it's got the problem licked. Look for the test to start churning out data come July. RBR observation: This is why you test. Another improvement in the Houston test will be a modification to the PPM device that will differentiate in-home and out-of-home media use, based on proximity to the docking/recharging unit. TV guys, who've never had out-of-home viewing measured by Nielsen, are salivating over that. But cost remains a big concern for many radio companies, along with how PPM affects morning drive ratings. You must read and print out these charts. We like this point - TV is salivating so Nielsen step-in with the Kleenex and wipe off the drool.
12/09/04 RBR #239
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Radio Professionals
Salem Communications seeking experienced candidates in Radio Sales, Programming, and Management for pending acquisitions in Miami and Omaha, EOE.
GM & Equity
New England radio group seeks self-starter to captain turnarounds. Community radio is still alive and well in this Central New England combo. Equity participation available Letter and Resume
See Radio Careers for more info.
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©2004 Radio Business Report/Television Business Report, Inc. All rights reserved.
Radio Business Report -- 2050 Old Bridge Road, Suite B-01, Lake Ridge, VA 22192 -- Phone: 703-492-8191
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