What we thought would happen in 2008
We suggested that at worst the predictions we made last December could be printed out and used as a parakeet cage liner. We were right about that one, and if we add it to our other 13 guesstimates, it will bring our total of correct predictions to six, to balance out the six we got flat-out wrong. We were mostly but not entirely right on one, and sort of right on another. You can decide what kind of credit to award us for our partial predictions. We know that if our kids' teachers were grading this, we'd be flunking. To see the predictions from last year and the results, click the headline. Tomorrow: Our predictions for 2009 (shudder).

Arbitron in talks with New Jersey AG
New Jersey Attorney General Anne Milgram didn't meet the December 26th deadline to respond to Arbitron's federal lawsuit seeking to block her from interfering with its Portable People Meter (PPM) deployment. Instead, she asked for an extension until January 26th - with support from Arbitron. The New Jersey AG told the court that her office is in negotiation with Arbitron's legal counsel on a possible settlement.

Moody's goes negative on Sirius XM
As Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin works to refinance nearly a billion bucks worth of debt in 2009, he'll have to do so with a lower credit rating from Moody's Investors Service. Noting current market conditions, Moody's says Sirius XM will likely have to negotiate some sort of compromise with its debt holders to get the job done.

RBR observation: You will not be surprised to learn that Moody's also has a negative outlook for Sirius XM, so there could be a further rating reduction as the company struggles with its debt burden.

Shot in the arm for consumers?
The National Retail Federation wants consumers back in its members' stores, and it thinks a good lure would not be a value added, it would be something taken away: the sales tax. It is trying to sell the incoming Obama administration on three 10-day tax holidays, scheduled for March, July and October of next year. NRF says this would help kick-start the economy, which it says will be difficult to do if Americans do not resume a normal amount of spending. NRF suggest the federal government reimburse states for lost tax revenue, which it expects to amount to about $20B.

RBR observation: And therein lies the problem: there is no national sales tax, so there really is nothing the federal government can easily do to make this plan a reality. The necessary involvement of 50 state legislatures and governors, plus the District of Columbia, to set something like this up, not to mention keeping the books while the tax holiday is in progress, sounds prohibitive to us.

Metro Traffic and TrafficLand partner
Westwood One/Metro Traffic announced a multi-year partnership with TrafficLand to combine TrafficLand's 24/7 live traffic video systems (which aggregate nearly 5,000 traffic cameras) with Metro Traffic's reporters. The deal will allow Metro Traffic's system to integrate TrafficLand's video systems into its incident reports, alerts, traffic speed and flow updates, and offer better alternative routing suggestions. Metro Traffic also becomes the exclusive representative of the TrafficLand services to broadcasters for their radio, television and Internet offerings with on-demand user applications to be made available in the future. Westwood One also negotiated the right to purchase at its option 100% of the stock of TrafficLand in 2009.

Magnum adds Class A
David Magnum's Magnum Radio Inc. is picking up a Class A television companion for its La Crosse WI radio stations. KQEG-CA is coming from White Eagle Partnership, headed by Eleanor St. John, in a $23K cash deal. The station is licensed across the Mississippi River from La Crosse, and across the state line, in La Crescent MN. Magnum owns and operates an AM and two FMs in La Crosse.

RBR observation: There is no need for a cross-ownership waiver. If there is an advantage to a Class A television license, it is that it does not impact local ownership caps.

Aerospace splashes down in Lake Tahoe
Darrel Wampler's International Aerospace Solutions Inc. has a $125K deal to get into the radio business. It's buying KTHO-AM in South Lake Tahoe CA from Live Wire Media Partners. Wampler will come up with cash beforehand and at closing, but will pay the bulk of the price via a $100K promissory note. An LMA will be in place until closing.

$450K KRBL-FM Lubbock TX (Idalou TX) from Triumph Communications Inc. (Kelly D. Ramsey, Kenneth Ramsey) to Claro Communications Ltd. (Gerald Benavides). $30K escrow, $70K cash at closing, $350K note. [FCC file date 12/1/08]

$60K KNDH-FM CP Hettinger ND from Alma Corporation (Dennis Wallace) to Midnation Media LLC (Karl Leiber, Roger Ingram, Aaron Ishmael). $10K earnest money, balance in cash at closing. Seller was entitled to 35% bidding credit; buyer was entitled to 25% bidding credit; seller will return $2.5K difference to FCC. CP is for Class C1 on 93.5 MHz with 100 kw @ 958'. [FCC file date 12/1/08]

No. No. Noooooooooooooooooooooo.
We haven't sworn in the 111th Congress yet. But we do know that Republicans in the House are planning their first official fundraiser for 1/6/09, just hours after the 111th takes the oath. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) is throwing a party, asking for a cover charge of $10K-$15K from attendees. According to Politico, the National Republican Congressional Committee actually has to make up ground before it starts to build - it's $6.5M in debt.

RBR observation: If politicians are already thinking about cash for 2010, it probably won't be long before they start thinking about free air time from broadcasters. Let's see how long it takes for that one to rear its ugly head once again.

FCC works through
After canceling its regularly scheduled 12/18/08 December Open Meeting, the Federal Communications Commission has announced it will convene on 12/30/08 instead. The announced purpose of the meeting is to discuss "announcements." Meanwhile, the FCC has released side-by-side coverage comparisons of television analog and digital signals. FCC Chairman Kevin Martin said, "It is critical that broadcasters use the information in these reports to inform their viewers about how changes in their coverage may affect them. We expect broadcasters to make this information readily available and include it in all of their DTV educational materials."

CC Radio Miami launches "93.9-FM MIA"
Another Smooth Jazz bites the dust-this time heritage WLVE-FM. CC Radio Miami on Christmas Day launched Rhythmic AC 93.9-FM MIA, "Move to the Music". The station features popular up-tempo music from the 70's, 80's, 90's and today. To celebrate the launch, 93.9-FM MIA is airing commercial-free music from artists including the Bee Gees, Madonna, Prince, Justin Timberlake and Jennifer Lopez.

RBR observation: In the early 90's and beyond, WLVE had a pretty good following in SoFla. The canned Smooth Jazz was then intermingled with a bit of Caribbean/Steel Drum music, classic jazz and sometimes even a bit of Reggae. Bottom line, it was programmed for South Florida.

Bonneville St. Louis gets Rams deal
Bonneville St. Louis Radio Group recently entered into a two-year deal with the St. Louis Rams for broadcast radio rights for the NFL franchise in 2009 and 2010. The Rams Games will be broadcast on their new FM sports format station, Sports/Talk 101.1. The new station is set to debut January 1 when the former MOViN 101.1 FM signal will assume the local broadcast affiliation for the ESPN radio network in St. Louis.

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Radio Calvary to Calvary

Year-end appeal from the Broadcasters Foundation
As 2008 comes to an end, the Broadcasters Foundation of America is making an appeal for members of the industry to make a donation to the Endowment Fund so the organization can fulfill its humanitarian mission. "In just the last few years alone, your Broadcasters Foundation has dispensed over $2,900.000.00 in emergency grants to 387 of our distressed and hurting colleagues in 33 states since we grew as a labor of love (and necessity) out of the original Broadcast Pioneers founded by the legendary H.M. Kaltenborn. Thanks to successful broadcasters like you, we are now able to provide timely assistance to the less fortunate in our broadcasting family."

Broadcasters Foundation establishes Bill Drake Fund
The Broadcasters Foundation has also established The Bill Drake Memorial Tribute Fund, in honor of the recently passed iconic radio programmer. All contributions will be acknowledged with a copy to his beloved life companion Carole Scott.

News coverage back to normal spread
During the week of 12/15/08-12/21/08, news directors actually had to pick and choose from a number of important story lines, resulting in the most balanced coverage week we've seen since the presidential primaries began. According to the Project for Excellence study, the coverage had variety, and at the same time it was relatively focused. There were not all that many subterranean threads that received a lot of attention in one medium while being ignored elsewhere. Politics, finance, scandal, weather - there was room for a little bit of everything.

Limbaugh gets support from Air America
There has been a lot of hot air expended on the Fairness Doctrine lately, everywhere but the home of the prime exporter of hot air: Capitol Hill.
12/23/08 RBR #249

Predictions on 2009
With the economic tailspin showing no real end in sight, the next year may be a particularly challenging one for advertisers and the radio industry. However, there are several bright spots to look for in the 2009
12/23/08 RBR #249

Plan to Succeed
You will not survive an economic slowdown by simply hoping that you sell more or your current customer base buys more. Account planning, territory planning, and pre-call planning are the keys to efficient selling in a down economy. It's time to review account plans.
12/23/08 RBR #249

November results
plumb new depths
What is there to say? That November 2009 comps will be incomparably easy? This dismal performance was itself built on the shaky foundation of a -6% performance in November 2007. Damn. The bottom has to be somewhere. Is this it?
12/22/08 RBR #248

Genachowski on
inside track to FCC?
Genachowski's nomination would be anything but a surprise. His name has surfaced early an often in the Washington speculation game. If selected, he will not be going to the FCC with broadcasting on the top of his mind. It's no secret that net neutrality figures to be a big FCC priority under Obama, and a Genachowski pick would be a convincing confirmation.
12/22/08 RBR #248

Journal taking charge, revenues down
Has re-evaluated its asset values and is taking a non-cash charge in Q4. CFO Andre Fernandez was quick to note that the write-down will not impact the company's ability to generate cash.
12/22/08 RBR #248

Q3 was up, but not impressive
Broadcast TV in total saw revenues rise 9% in Q3. Network was the big gainer, up 16.1%, with syndicated TV up 6.6% and the station business (local and national spot combined) up only 1.2%. With three-quarters of 2008 tallied, television industry revenues were up a mere 1.9% -- and that's in an elections and Olympic year.
12/22/08 TVBR #248