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Volume 24, Issue 37, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Thursday Morning February 22nd, 2007

Radio News ®

PPM holdout no more
Cox Radio has ended its long refusal to participate in PPM testing and will now encode in Houston. CEO Bob Neil says Media Rating Council (MRC) accreditation was the clincher, although he is still weighing whether to actually subscribe to PPM data from Arbitron. RBR asked Neil, are you persuaded that PPM is going to be the new industry standard for radio audience measurement? "No, we're still not convinced it's the best electronic measurement system. But MRC accreditation was very important to us and we communicated that time and time again. So, after they got it, we felt that we could go ahead and participate in the test to evaluate PPM. We'll make a further call on subscribing if and when it becomes currency in Houston," Neil replied. Adding the four Cox stations will make PPM encoding pretty much universal in Houston, where Cox had been the only major station owner refusing to participate in the PPM test. (Clear Channel does encode in Houston, but not in Philadelphia.) Arbitron had agreed that it would not commercialize PPM in Houston until it received MRC accreditation. Having obtained that, it is talks with station owners on when to end diary service and make PPM data the radio ratings currency in Houston, making it the second market to commercialize PPM after Philadelphia.

Breakfast wars heating up
McDonald's has had a leg up in the fast-food breakfast wars for some time, but it is about to weather challenges from not one but four competitors, including one that wasn't offering much more that pastries and two that haven't even been in the game in recent memory. While consumers wake up and smell the coffee and other items, broadcasters may smell something green that doesn't come from a farm. And that is cash. USA Today laid out the strategic map that defines the breakfast battlefield. Burger King is one outfit that has offered breakfast items all along, but has not had the share it would like. It'll be offering menu items on the cheap and trying to convince consumers that it's as serious about AMs as McDonald's is. Starbucks is slowly adding hot food to its menu market by market, and is already cooking in Seattle, Washington, New York, San Francisco and Chicago (it says it hasn't decided if its going national or not as of yet). Re-entering the market after a failure two decades ago is Wendy's, and Subway is getting ready for a breakfast launch at over a third of its 20.6K restaurants.

RBR observation: This kind of multi-player war will be great for just about any advertising medium you can think of. It would seem that the only requirement for broadcasters is to do what's necessary to make sure you scoop up your share of the windfall. But can there be any medium better poised than radio to take advantage of this? There's a commuter, had to run out of the house and is now stuck in traffic. Wouldn't that be a good time to mention that a quick and satisfying meal is as close as your convenient drive-in window?

The hurdle XM and Sirius must clear
Back in 1997 when the FCC issued its Report and Order creating the satellite radio service (DARS, the redundantly named Digital Audio Radio Service by satellite), it anticipated the situation we see today with the two licensees seeking to become one. Here is the language the FCC adopted back then regarding license transfers: "We note that DARS licensees, like other satellite licensees, will be subject to rule 25.118, which prohibits transfers or assignments of licenses except upon application to the Commission and upon a finding by the Commission that the public interest would be served thereby. Even after DARS licenses are granted, one licensee will not be permitted to acquire control of the other remaining satellite DARS license. This prohibition on transfer of control will help assure sufficient continuing competition in the provision of satellite DARS Service." That is the barrier that XM and Sirius now have to persuade the current FCC to remove to permit their planned merger. Clearly, the FCC, then headed by Chairman Reed Hundt (D) foresaw the possibility that with only two licensees permitted in the new service, there would be a financial incentive to create a monopoly by one company buying out its lone competitor. And the FCC of 1997 sought to block that from ever happening. With Kevin Martin (R) now Chairman, the two satellite radio companies must make the case that so much has changed since 1997 that the monopoly fears of the FCC 10 years ago are no longer valid.

RBR observation: Convincing the FCC and their overseers on Capitol Hill that an XM-Sirius merger should be allowed may hinge on one thing that was around in 1997, indecency, and one that wasn't, the iPod. It was no mere coincidence that Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin spoke of ala carte offerings in his Wall Street conference call on Tuesday. The two satellite radio companies don't have any ala carte offering now, although there is nothing to stop them. But Kevin Martin loves the ala carte idea for cable - letting folks pick and choose which cable networks they want to pay for - and it is also popular with some Members of Congress, particularly those who are pushing for "family friendly" packages that let parents keep their homes free of racier fare. If you subscribe to Sirius today you get Howard Stern, like it or not. If you subscribe to XM you get Opie & Anthony, like it or not. So offering ala carte programming will be one way the satellite companies will try to build support for the merger. As for iPods, they are the killer ap that the satellite guys will claim is eating their lunch. They won't put it exactly that way, because they don't want to panic Wall Street. But they are going to try to convince regulators and lawmakers that iPods, music downloads to cell phones and even good old AM-FM radio constitute so much competition for music listening that there is no real need to have competition in the satellite radio industry. Will that fly inside the beltway? We will see.

Focus returns to Mideast
Almost a third of the media's news attention went to the Middle East in one way or another, according to the Project for Excellence in Journalism's news coverage study for the week of 2/11-16/07. Iraq policy picked up 11% of the coverage, and other Mideast topics included Iran (7%), events in Iraq (7%), stories from the homefront (2%), and Afganistan (2%), for a 30% total share. Radio was particularly consumed by the topic, giving such topics 44% of the newshole and adding in another 4% on North Korea for good measure. The saga of the troubled NASA astronaut, which ate up 6% of the hole the previous week, was the biggest story to fall off the charts completely. The previous week's other big tabloid splasher was, of course, the death of Anna Nicole Smith. It fell from 9% to only 3%, and only appeared on two of the six media charts. Network television gave it the same 3%. If you guessed that it lived on over on the cable news channels, you'd be correct. They barely pulled back, going from 21% to 20% and almost single-handedly keeping the story on the overall chart. A big gainer was Iran, which jumped from 2% to 7%.
| Top ten lists here |

Prof urges journalists to compromise
University of Chicago law professor Geoffrey R. Stone was given a major journalistic forum to discuss a topic of particular interests to journalists: a federal shield law. The forum was the New York Times, and its interest was greater than most, since one of its reporters, the since-departed Judith Miller, was jailed for refusing to reveal a source in the Valerie Plame case. Stone notes that several attempts to pass a shield law have been attempted in Congress (and there have been bipartisan attempts in the 109th Congress), but they often fail in part, he says because journalists want to hold out for a perfect bill. Stone says it's time to realize that a good, and passable, shield law is better than no shield. If the government can prove both compelling need for the source's identity and that it has exhausted all other means of acquiring that knowledge, then, he argues, it should be revealed. That hurdle should be high enough to allow journalists to try and bring hard-to-get information to light and perform its constitutional government watchdog duty, while leaving the government room to provide for common safety.

Wall Street Media Business Report TM

Getting out the vote
It is now less than a month to the vote on whether to take Clear Channel Communications private, selling the company to a pair of private equity funds for 26.7 billion. With a least one big shareholder expected to vote against the sale, the outcome is in doubt, so management is beating the bushes to reach the two-thirds approval required. According to an SEC filing yesterday, this letter has gone out to those who have not yet voted:

Dear Clear Channel Shareholder:
According to our latest records, we have not yet received your proxy for the important special meeting of shareholders of Clear Channel Communications, Inc. to be held on March 21, 2007. Your Board of Directors recommends that you vote FOR the proposed merger with Bain Capital Partners, LLC and Thomas H. Lee Partners, L.P. Please note that if you fail to vote, and there is a quorum present, your shares will be counted as a vote against the adoption of the merger. Please help your company avoid the expense of further solicitation by voting TODAY by signing, dating and returning the enclosed proxy card in the postage-paid envelope provided. Thank you for your cooperation.

Very truly yours,
Mark P. Mays
Chief Executive Officer

Radio One reviewing stock option practices
Radio One announced late yesterday that it may have to restate its financial reports from January 1, 1999 to the present - which would be all of the reports it has ever filed as a public company - due to questions about its stock option granting practices. The company said it is reviewing its stock option granting practices from May 5, 1999, the date of its IPO. The issue is whether the correct stock option dates were used - indicating the same back-dating issue that has brought many Wall Street companies under scrutiny in recent months. "Radio One does not expect that the restatement will have an impact on its previously reported revenues, cash flows or total stockholders' equity," the company said.

Ad Business Report TM

Hispanic radio & TV ad revenues to hit 5.5 billion by 2010
A new study from Kagan Research, Economics of Hispanic TV and Radio in the U.S., reports that the largest and fastest-growing minority market in the U.S. will continue to provide robust revenue and cash flow growth for cable and broadcast networks and TV and radio station operators. Hispanic ad growth is expected to outpace that of the general market, reaching 5.5 billion in gross advertising revenue by 2010. Kagan forecasts bigger revenue growth curves for cable nets in the next several years, with projected growth of 32% from 2002 to 2010, versus 12.5% for broadcast networks. Although the Hispanic demo has lower multichannel penetration than the general population, the services are expected to gain ground in the coming decade. Multichannel penetration of Hispanic TVHH is projected to grow to 71.7% in 2010. TV station players can expect solid revenue growth rates, while radio stations are projected to outpace their English Language peers between 2006 and 2010, the report said. Programming is a potential growth area for all distribution outlets. Cable networks will increase program expenses most quickly, while broadcast networks are likely to have slower growth.

eBay Media Marketplace
set to launch
The much-anticipated eBay Media Marketplace for automated TV buys is set to launch 3/15 in beta. While no networks are officially on board as of yet, agencies and advertisers are. The Q2 cable scatter market will be the first marketplace the system will tackle, assuming networks decide to put some inventory in the fray. We asked, why are there no networks officially on board yet? "It's not accurate to say no one is in, but it is accurate to say no one is in right now, because they haven't started putting inventory into the system. But we have agreements with a bunch of people to participate. Joe Abruzzese at Discovery has already committed to be in and there are of others," someone close to the situation told RBR. "But I think if you asked at this very minute they're not in because we had a meeting a week or so ago and we gave them their own demonstration. We said, 'Look, take this beta back to your offices, play around with it, give us some suggestions you might have and we'll consider them and act upon them.' We want this thing to be user-friendly for both sides. It's got to work for the sellers and for the buyers." In the process, an advertiser submits an RFP for networks to respond to; or networks post inventory for sale. Networks respond with an offer indicating GRPs and CPMs; number of ad units and value added benefits like product placement. Or a seller will begin by offering available inventory based on demos, inventory dates and times, etc. Bidding among marketers would then begin. Negotiations occur electronically up to the deal deadline. Members of the steering committee include Home Depot, Intel, Toyota, Hewlett-Packard and Microsoft; Bill Cella, DraftFCB Vice Chairman, Carat Americas President Ray Warren, PHD CEO Steve Grubbs and Peggy Green, Zenith Media's President/National Broadcast. Other marketers on board include Wal-Mart and Revlon. Grubbs, Green, Home Depot Media Director Christi Korzekwa and eBay's Howard Rosenberg will speak on the system at a panel session at the upcoming AAAA's Media Conference in Las Vegas.

RBR observation: Interesting that this system seems to have so much interest, while the Google electronic offering is still in a general holding pattern for TV. If the eBay system gets off the ground, perhaps it will get the attention of radio broadcasters for this type of transaction-beyond what we've seen for Bid4Spots. Janice Finkel-Greene, EVP/Local Broadcast, Initiative Media (Initiative is testing the system, too), tells us while the system's first test go-around is for national cable, national TV broadcast could be next-assuming no big hurdles with cable. Bottom line, this could make things easier on buyers and sellers. Whether it could drive rates up or down remains to be seen.

Media Business Report TM

NBC goes for a ride in LA
Pretty soon, you won't have to make it home from work via public transit to start watching your favorite NBC/Universal television station in Los Angeles. NBC 4 KNBC, Telemundo KVEA 52 and Hispanic indy KWHY 22 will be shown on 4.4K LCD television screens in some 2.2K Los Angeles Metro buses. Well, not exactly the stations. Portions of the bus screens will feature "local news, weather, sports and entertainment" portions of their daily broadcasts, with periodic updates throughout the day via a wireless delivery system. An outfit called Transit TV is fitting the buses with the screens, and also much of the programming. NBC sees the deal as a way to promote its stations. Transit TV will, of course, also sell advertising on the screens, aimed at the typically young and hard-to-reach bus-riding demo. it has similar operations up and running in Chicago, Atlanta, Orlando, San Diego and Milwaukee.

RBR observation: What public space, if any, will be left without a television screen in the next 25 years? One of these days we're going to get out of the family RV and see one network apiece being shown from projection screens, one each in each eye of each president on Mount Rushmore.

Media Markets & Money TM

A towering deal in the Big Easy
The base price for New Orlean's WGSO-AM, being sold by William Metcalf's WGSO LLC to Northshore Radio LLC, headed by W. Christopher Beary, is 1.01M. But hanging over the transaction, according to documents filed with the FCC, is uncertainty over its tower site. If the Tower Building asks the station to leave the site, the price drops to 975K. If the buyer elects to exit the site of his own volition, the price will drop to 992.5K. 100K will be put into escrow to start the ball rolling, and 35K will be kept in a post-closing escrow account to handle any eventualities as the tower saga follows its course.

Washington Media Business Report TM

FCC tees up News Corp./Liberty deal
The asset exchange between News Corp. and Liberty Media is before the FCC, and its gargantuan nature has opened it to the possibility of much public comment. To recap, News Corp., headed by Rupert Murdoch, will get 11B worth of stock in his company from Liberty and John Malone, amounting to a 19% share of voting stock and 15% of non-voting. In mostly tax-free exchange for the stock, Liberty will get Murdoch's 39% chunk of satellite video provider DirecTV, as well as three regional sports networks and about 550M cash. The FCC is declaring permit but disclose procedures for ex parte commentary. If presented orally, "memoranda summarizing the presentation must contain the presentation's substance and not merely list the subjects discussed." In other words, there will be no substantial secrets between interested parties and those cashing an FCC paycheck. Petitions to deny or informal comments are due by 3/23/07.

HD RADIO 2007

iBiquity launches incentive program for HD conversions
iBiquity Digital launched a new incentive program that says any group not currently licensed under a previous iBiquity Digital station conversion incentive program will have their primary audio license fees capped at 10K per station (HD Radio license fees are scheduled to increase to 15K per station in July 2007 and then to 25K in July 2008). "The top 20 radio broadcast groups own just 20% of the AM and FM stations in the U.S., which means the overwhelming majority of the nation's radio stations are owned by small groups and independents," said Ron Davis, Chairman of the Small Market Operators Caucus. "This new program is an especially good fit for small, independent broadcasters, as it will help us accelerate our transitions to digital and allow more consumers to enjoy the many benefits made possible by HD Radio technology."

Qualifying groups will commit to license and convert stations under the following terms:
- All group stations currently licensed with iBiquity Digital must be converted under the existing license terms;
- At least one group station not already converted must be converted by 12/31/07;
- 50 percent of all group stations with revenues in excess of 300,000 must be converted by December 31, 2010 based on a schedule outlined in the License Commitment Agreement;
- 2,000 of the 10,000 license fee for each station committed under the incentive is due by September 30, 2007. The remaining 8,000 for each station is due at the time the station is licensed.

Transactions

1.2M WMSR-FM Florence-Muscle Shoals AL (Collinwood TN) from Malkan Broadcasting LP (Matthew Malkan) to Urban Radio Licenses LLC, a subsidiary of Urban Radio Communications LLC (Kevin Wagner, Marv Dyson,. Michael Finley, Timothy D. Hardaway, Donovan McNabb et al. 125K escrow, balance in cash at closing. Includes non-compete. Superduopoly with WVNA AM & FM, WLAY AM & FM, WMXV-FM. LMA 6/1/06. [File date 1/23/07.]

600K AM CP Baxter MN from Edward DeLaHunt Sr. to Throw Fire Project (Andres W. Hilger, Mark Durenberger, James Schleper). 18.5K down payment, balance in cash at closing. Will apply to move station to Rockville MN. CP is for 1180 kHz with 50 kw-D, 5 kw-N, DA2. [File date 1/22/07.]

Stock Talk

Stocks close mixed
A higher than expected rise in core consumer inflation in January upset Wall Street traders. Even so, stock prices closed mixed. The Dow Industrials fell 48 points, or 0.4%, to 12,738. The S&P 500 also dropped, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose for the day.

Radio stocks were mostly lower. The Radio Index declined 0.101, or 0.1%, to 162.232. Emmis, however, jumped 2.1% after announcing a deal to sell its Honolulu TV station. Cumulus had the worst day, down 1.5%.

Radio Stocks

**Here's how stocks fared on Wednesday**
Company	Symbol	Close		Change	Company	Symbol	Close		Change
Arbitron	ARB		46.20	+0.10	Journal Comm.	JRN		13.44	+0.12
Beasley	BBGI		9.20	+0.01	Lincoln Natl.	LNC		70.30	-0.42
CBS CI. B	CBS		31.70	-0.25	Radio One, Cl. A	ROIA		7.47	-0.02
CBS CI. A	CBSa		31.71	-0.21	Radio One, Cl. D	ROIAK		7.49	unch
Citadel	CDL		10.43	-0.01	Regent	RGCI		2.96	+0.04
Clear Channel	CCU		36.38	-0.05	Saga Commun.	SGA		9.42	-0.05
Cox Radio	CXR		15.67	-0.03	Salem Comm.	SALM		13.52	-0.04
Cumulus	CMLS		10.11	-0.15	Sirius Sat. Radio	SIRI		3.92	unch
Disney	DIS		35.14	+0.09	Spanish Bcg.	SBSA		4.41	-0.04
Emmis	EMMS		8.71	+0.18	SWMX	SMWX		1.05	+0.05
Entercom	ETM		30.48	-0.10	Univision	UVN		36.01	+0.07
Entravision	EVC		8.79	+0.03	Westwood One	WON		7.08	-0.02
Fisher	FSCI		45.28	+0.19	XM Sat. Radio	XMSR		15.25	-0.16
Hearst-Argyle	HTV		26.30	+0.06	-	-	-	-	-

Bounceback

We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]

We asked for your comments on the XM-Sirius merger proposal - and here are some of the first responses.

Perhaps Sirius & XM should be appealing to FEMA instead of the FCC to help get their merger approved? One or both companies seem headed for financial disaster if the merger is not approved. At this point, Satellite is proving, no matter who owns it, not to be a major threat to Local Broadcasting and this is an opportunity to keep it that way. We in the Industry seem to be constantly fighting someone. Perhaps instead the NAB & RAB should be negotiating behind the scenes to get what they want out of this deal and find a way to quietly support it with terms favorable to them. If Satellite Radio fails, would it not be a black eye to an industry in need of technological cache? Perhaps there is a way to further the advances of HD, Local Broadcasting, and Satellite in this age of technology if we work together?

Pete Forester
Director of National Sales
Greater Media NJ Radio Group

The merger will probably pass because it will be better for the consumer and hold down costs. I'm sure that regular, old fashion radio will be whining for the rest of the year about this when you should be trying to fix your own business, which is virtually impossible at this point, especially if you think HD is the answer. If you go into any retail store and ask about HD, they either don't know what it is, or they think it's satellite radio. Satellite radio is truly the best radio around and regardless of the stock prices, will continue to grow.

Lenny Freed, Radio Guru

Below the Fold

Ad Business Report
eBay Media Marketplace
Set to launch TVBR has confirmed the launch and the date...

Media Business Report
NBC goes for a ride in LA
Will be shown on 4.4K LCD screens in some 2.2K Metro buses...

Media Markets & Money
A towering deal in the Big Easy
base price for WGSO-AM is 1.01M But hanging over the transaction...

HD Radio 2007
iBiquity launches incentive
Program for HD conversions...

Stations for Sale

Pacific Northwest
2FM & 1AM
$795K and $650K w/terms
Two markets, discount for all-cash
MCH Enterprises: 805.543.3466
www.mchentinc.com

Market your Stations For Sale
in our daily epapers.

Contact
June Barnes
[email protected]

Radio Media Moves

Tolkoff heads west
Entravision's KDLD-FM/KDLE-FM "Indie 103.1" Los Angeles announced that Max Tolkoff has been appointed Program Director, effective April 1st. Tolkoff was most recently PD of WFNX-FM Boston.

TVBR - TV News

Emmis says aloha
to Honolulu TV
KGMB-TV is on its way to a new owner and Emmis Communications is down to one remaining television station as it works its way back to a radio-only broadcast portfolio. The buyer is HITV Operating Company, a corporation formed for the purpose acquiring the station and a subsidiary of MCG Capital Corporation. KGMB-TV is a CBS affiliate. According to the local Star-Bulletin, the sale was a relief to station staffers, who have long known that it was on the block. The transaction will weigh in with a pricetag of 40M, and leaving Emmis with only one station remaining out of the 16 it put up for sale. Total proceeds so far have reached 1.18B. The final station on the shelf is WVUE-TV, the New Orleans Fox affiliate.

RBR Radar 2006

Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

What are the XM-Sirius odds?
Sirius Satellite Radio CEO Mel Karmazin insisted in a joint Wall Street conference call with XM Chairman Gary Parsons that there is a "better than 50/50 chance" that regulators will allow the two companies to merge. Plus look for the XM-Sirius team to make their case for a merger as RBR has details with charted details (see RBR) that will likely play a key role. Karmazin states, "In today's expanding audio entertainment market, consumers have a huge array of choice - and sometimes they don't want to settle for one." And it even gets better with the Consumer Coalition for Competition in Satellite Radio (C3SR) was formed (1/13/07 RBR #9) by satellite radio subscribers who don't want to see the two satellite radio companies become one, eliminating any competition and consumer choice. Now they have an actual fight on their hands. And it is only going to get better and hotter.

RBR observation: One analyst offered a simple solution during yesterday's conference call, but it nearly sent Karmazin and Parsons into cardiac arrest. Why not avoid the whole FCC issue by combining the businesses and their subscriber bases, and turn in one of the satellite spectrum licenses? Oh, no! The satellite radio bosses said they couldn't do that. They need all of the spectrum from both companies so they can continue to serve the non-compatible receivers that each has in the marketplace (somehow they never mention that they have been ignoring the FCC requirement that their receivers be compatible) and to add video, data and other new services to make them more competitive with other media.
02/21/07 RBR #36

If I were the FCC
Dan Mason at Dan Mason LLC writes RBR and sees it from this view point - I would approve the Sirius-XM merger as long as they would agree to carry on HD chip inside the radios...then it would be non-monopolistic. They (Sirius-XM) will most likely have to give up some things to get this approved. Seems like a convenient way for the FCC to bring digital radio into the cars for several years to come. I don't think this merger creates impossible barriers for radio, but I do believe there is an opportunity to bring all the technical aspects in line with this deal.

RBR note: What would your recommendation be if you were the FCC? Join the discussion. Send your comments to [email protected]
02/21/07 RBR #36

XM and Sirius merger plans
Will it ever happen? That is the big question, since combining the only two satellite radio companies in the United States will have to clear huge regulatory hurdles. One hurdle is NAB is all over this potential merger and as expected is against it. FCC Chairman says merger faces high hurdle. More details in RBR.

RBR observation: Despite the report issued last Friday by Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck that an XM-Sirius merger would "likely pass" FCC and antitrust approval, we beg to differ. The companies would need three yes votes on the FCC and we can't imagine how they would find one. And should any Commissioner dare to indicate their support, they would likely rethink that position after being called to Capitol Hill for a very public bi-partisan flogging. To be sure, Wall Street investors love the merger idea. Both companies are burning through cash at an astounding rate and are far off the financial projections of their original business plans. Merging is expected to save 3-7 billion by cutting overhead and being able to raise subscription rates. But just how are XM and Sirius going to make the case for any public benefit from merging the only two competitors in a field? We can only think of one - as a single company they would likely finally comply with the FCC rule which requires their receivers to be compatible with each other's satellite system.
02/20/07 RBR #35

Daylight Savings switchover
may cause glitches
TDGA (Traffic Directors Guild of America) advises to take special care twice this spring. This is the first year that the Congressionally mandated change from Standard to Daylight Time in the vast majority of states occurs in March, rather than "The first Sunday in April."
02/20/07 RBR #35

General Sales Manager
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