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Coen: 2004 was better than thought

Universal McCann forecasting guru Bob Coen has been tallying up the final numbers for 2004 ad spending - - and concluded that the year came in a bit better than he had projected in December. The percentage gain was still 7.4%, but the final tally was a little higher - - 263.766 billion, rather than 263.699 billion. The showing by national advertisers was stronger, while local ad spending lagged. Local radio finished up 3%, rather than the 4% that Coen had projected. Likewise, local TV was up only 7.3%, not 8.5%. Network TV, however, rose 11.2%, not just 9.5%, and national spot TV gained 14.3%, rather than 10%. "Consolidations in many areas have reduced the number of local marketers and often redirected spending into nationally distributed media. The Wal-Mart effect has cut into the available co-op advertising funds and focused local appeals nearly entirely on price. Many local marketers now concentrate on the use of preprinted inserts; highly targeted mail advertising programs and increased spending on the internet. These shifts have cut into many of the other traditional local media budgets," Coen noted. Then he added, "The advertising recovery is finally under way, although spotty in some media. The recovery should continue for the rest of this decade and possibly beyond if similar recovery patterns of the past are repeated to any degree." We have Coen's final numbers medium-by-medium for 2004.

U.S. ADVERTISING VOLUME 2003-2004 (In Millions of dollars) These Universal McCann U.S. advertising reports represent all expenditures by U.S. advertisers- national, local, private individuals, etc. The expenditures, by medium, include all commissions as well as the art, mechanical and production expenses that are part of the advertising budget for each medium.                                            2003 (final)                                  2004 (final)       MEDIUM NEWSPAPER National Local Total   MAGAZINES Millions Of Dollars   $7,357 37,486 44,843   11,435   % of Total     3.0 15.3 18.3                     4.7 Millions Of Dollars   $7,629 38,985 46,614   12,247   % of Total     2.9 14.8 17.7           4.7   % Change   +3.7 +4.0 +3.9   +7.1 BROADCAST TV Four TV networks (3 TV Networks) Syndication* Spot (National) Spot ( Local) TOTAL     15,030 (13,105)   3,434   9,948 13,520 41,932   6.1 (5.3) 1.4 4.1 5.5 17.1   16,713 (14,691)   3,674   11,370 14,507 46,267   6.3 (5.6) 1.4 4.3 5.5 17.5   +11.2 (+12.1)  +7.0  +14.3   +7.3 +10.3 CABLE TV Cable Networks Spot ( local) Total   13,954   4,860 18,814   5.7 2.0 7.6   16,424   5,103 21,527   6.2 2.0 8.2   +17.7 +5.0 +14.4 RADIO Network Spot ( National) Spot ( local) Total        798   3,540 14,762 19,100   0.3 1.5 6.0 7.8        836   3,540 15,205 19,581   0.3 1.3 5.8 7.4   +4.7          +0.0 3.0    +2.5 YELLOW PAGES National Local TOTAL     2,114 11,782 13,896   0.9 4.8 5.7     2,110 11,892 14,002   0.8 4.5 5.3   -0.1 +0.9 +0.8 DIRECT MAIL 48,370 19.7 52,191 19.8 +7.9 BUSINESS PAPERS   4,004 1.6 4,072 1.5 +1.7 OUT OF HOME National Local Total   2,298 3,145 5,443   0.9 1.3 2.2     2,530 3,240 5,770   1.0 1.2 2.2     +10.1   +3.0   +6.0 INTERNET 5,650 2.3 6,853 2.6 +21.3 MISCELLANEOUS National Local Total   24,550   7,440 31,990   10.0   3.0 13.0   26,907   7,738 34,645   10.2   2.9 13.1   +9.6 +4.0 +8.3 National Total Local Total GRAND TOTAL 152,482   92,995 245,477 62.1 37.9 100.0 167,096   96,670 263,766 63.4 36.6        100.0 +9.6 +4.0 +7.4

Includes UPN, WB and Pax
Source:  Robert J. Coen, Universal McCann

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