What "shrinking audiences"
In all the furor about 18-49/25-54 so-called "shrinking audiences" - (are they going to on-demand devices like cell phones, iPods, satelilte radio, etc.), has anyone stopped to think that maybe there are not enough Gen Xers replacing Baby Boomers in these demos? That we are really dealing with aging audiences, not significant shrinking traditional media usage?
Ten or fifteen years ago, as The Baby Bust - Generation X - first entered elementary schools and then middle schools, officials began closing facilities and downsizing staffs. Today, as The Echo Boomers - Generation Y - move through the school systems, educators are scrambling to deal with the new swelling classrooms with the frantic construction of additions to accommodate. There are lessons to be learned here, especially for marketers and media!
The effects of the Baby Boom and the Baby Bust (X-Generation) as it moves through the years is profound in media terms! Here is some raw data I pulled based on Arbitron's Washington DC Census population data from 1997 and 2005. It indicates a dramatic shift in population age cells from 8 years ago and how it has affected the various age cells, especially Adults 25-54. Here are some initial observations -
* Persons 12+ have grow by 579,873 - well over half a million!
* While A 25-54 have grown by 130,769, the cell's share of audience has shrunk from from 61.3% to 55.8%!
* Meanwhile, the A 35-64 cell has grown by 3X as many - 394,364 - and its share of audience has increased to over half - 51.2% from 48.5%!
* A 25-44 lost 15,322 while A 45-64 gained 360,185!
* A 25-34 - the 2nd largest cell of the 25-54 demo in 1997 - lost nearly 50,000 persons and slipped to 3rd in the demo!
* Meanwhile, A 45-54 increased by 146,091.
* The BIGGEST cell increase occurred with A 55-64 - 214,094! THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO MOVED OUT OF 25-54! THEY LEFT 18-49 SIX YEARS AGO!
* The graphs below dramatically illustrates the bulges and valleys by age cells. (See attachment also)
Initial thoughts:
Adults 35-64 will become the new A 25-54 very soon! The transition demo is Adults 35-54. Marketers need to reassess their demo targets for the NEXT DECADE, as not enough dollars are being aimed at the lucrative older consumer. A complete extract of the study (which includes other major market comparisons) is attached.
The pendulum has swung from younger to older consumers! We will be dealing with a swinging pendulum effect for most of this century as Echo Boomers replace Baby Busters, followed by Echo Busters, followed by Echo-Echo Boomers......you get the picture!
Joe Shamwell
Director, Market Research
ABC Radio DC
WRQX-FM/WJZW-FM
Washington, DC
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