BIA Revises Its U.S. Local Ad Forecast Upward

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BIA Advisory Services has revised upward its 2021 forecasts for U.S. Local Advertising Revenues by 3.9% from its November 2020 estimates.


The projection is split between traditional and digital media. But, it shows that the divide is narrowing, BIA notes.

BIA now expects local ad revenue in 2021 of $142.4 billion, from $137.6 billion.

And, the new data show traditional advertising is just 8% ahead of digital media that include mobile, online, over-the-top, email, and traditional media’s online ventures.

“There’s an acceleration in the market that couldn’t be accounted for last fall,” said Dr. Mark Fratrik, BIA’s SVP and Chief Economists. “The economy is growing and we’re observing
money being spent to reach audiences through various media.”

Fratrik points to OTT as growing 16% this year, surpassing the trajectory of mobile as more
consumers take advantage of various streaming services on their TV screens.

Local television advertising this year will dip to $16.2 billion in 2021.

That’s possibly due to the record political ad dollars seen in 2020. Local TV ad dollars were bounce back next year, reaching $19.3 billion in 2022 — with $1.5 billion and $1.7 billion, respectfully, coming from digital platforms.

Local radio advertising will rebound somewhat, to $11.7 billion in 2021 and $12.3 billion in 2022.

The big takeaway: 2022 will see digital platforms for Radio inch past the $1 billion mark, reaching $1.04 billion.

The revised forecast also sees a 5.6% increase in overall compound annual growth in U.S.
spending in local ad markets and expects the amount to reach $157.1 billion in 2022 and $162.1 billion in 2023. The digital media share will first leapfrog to 51% over traditional media by 2023.

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