Local TV groups stand to increase their revenue growth by 50% within the next 10 years from the rollout of NEXTGEN TV.
That bright forecast comes courtesy of BIA Advisory Services, which also examined growth across over-the-air television, online TV, and the testy subject of retransmission fees.
The findings were formally revealed by BIA Managing Director Rick Ducey and BIA Chief Economist and SVP Dr. Mark Fratrik, at SMPTE’s DC Chapter Meeting in Washington.
The report finds that the potential growth rate with advanced TV has an 8.0% CAGR revenue growth opportunity compared to a 3.8% CAGR baseline.
“While a number of questions remain, there are clear upside scenarios for local TV groups investing in NextGen TV,” Ducey said. “Consumer side revenue business models will take longer to scale, but business and government business models can scale much faster.”
Ducey pointed to the strategic value NextGen TV provides to local TV by creating a capable new form of broadband, wireless, point-to-multipoint, local market distribution.
“Competitive distribution platforms such as 4G /5G mobile and MVPDs are making investments in their capabilities,” said Ducey. “NextGen TV represents an historically significant thrust by local TV broadcasters to establish themselves as an Internet-native, mobile first, advanced TV capable distribution platform.”
But, Fratrik offered some caution. “Even with the new capabilities NextGen TV provides, traditional linear TV advertising and retransmission will continue to account for the lion’s share of revenues throughout the 2020s,” he warned.
The SMPTE Washington DC Section, in conjunction with SBE and AES, presented on Thursday the day-long NextGen TV Summit.
The sold-out event saw Ducey and Fratrik join Sinclair Broadcast Group‘s Michael Bouchard in a discussion of audience advertising and audience analytics.
Bouchard was scheduled to participate in an afternoon session on station group and industry plans for NEXTGEN TV’s rollout.