How bad is the cord-cutting phenomenon that continues to impact the cable TV service providers of the U.S.?
A new study from Samba TV in partnership with research firm HarrisX sheds new light on the struggle to maintain a majority of U.S. households for MVPDs. And, it’s a timely research report, as it offers a window into the future of political engagement — and why spot cable may not be the wisest home for candidate and issue-oriented advertising.
The survey took into account the thoughts of some 2,300 U.S. adults who are registered to vote in November 2022.
The big takeaway: In both 10 key battleground states and across the national landscape, streaming content has overtaken traditional television as the medium of choice for voters in both parties.
“With one month to go before the November elections, voters report being nearly twice as likely to stream content as having a monthly cable subscription, with a majority of U.S. voters in both parties no longer having traditional linear TV subscriptions in the home,” the TV technology and omniscreen advertising and analytics provider Samba TV says.
Yes, Samba TV has a vested interest in the growth of streaming video platforms’ ad dollar intake. Still, the findings are perhaps emblematic of how the U.S. electorate’s TV habits have shifted, and swiftly.
“The story this election season is the same whether you are looking nationally or at the key battleground states,” said Ashwin Navin, Co-Founder and CEO of Samba TV. “Voters have left traditional linear television in droves. Only 39% of independent swing voters in battleground states have traditional TV. With so many elections now being determined by the slimmest of margins, campaigns need to dramatically rethink how they reach voters in the closing weeks to ensure they are not just saturating the same shrinking number of households with ads while leaving the vast majority of the electorate under-reached.”
In the 2020 battleground state of Arizona, a Samba TV analysis of all linear television ads run in the final 30 days of the competitive Senate race found 90% of the ads reached just the same 55% of Arizona households. This, Samba TV says, highlights the “critical need” for campaigns to shift strategies to reach voters where they now spend most of their time.
Dritan Nesho, Founder and CEO of HarrisX, added, “The data points clearly that the future king of political ad spending will be streaming. Voter eyeballs are more likely to be present by a factor of almost two to one.”
Among the other key findings:
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A majority of U.S. registered voters no longer have traditional linear TV subscriptions.
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Just 49% of U.S. registered voters have traditional TV (delivered via a MVPD as a cable or DBS-provided service).
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1 in 4 of those who do still have traditional TV plan to cancel in the next 6 months, signaling an even more complicated outlook for linear advertisers heading into the 2024 elections.
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Independents, the key swing voter block, are the least likely to have traditional TV delivered as a cable TV service, with only 4 in 10 (42%) having it today.
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In key battleground states, only 39% of independents have traditional TV from a MVPD.
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More than 80% of registered voters nationally and in key battleground states stream.
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Just 55% of those nationally and 56% of those in key battleground states who definitely plan to vote have a traditional TV subscription. 8 in 10 of these groups stream.
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Battleground state Democrats are much more likely to stream video on their mobile phones (72% compared to 59% of Republicans).
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Millennial and Gen Z voters are even harder to reach.
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Reaching younger voters on traditional TV is even more challenging. Millennial and Gen Z voters are more than twice as likely to stream than they are to have a traditional linear subscription today, and the gap is even wider for younger voters in battleground states.
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Social media remains a key destination for voter information.
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Facebook remains the most used platform by registered voters nationally but has less of an impact in the key battleground states.
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Democrat voters are significantly more likely to use TikTok than Republicans nationally with 37% of Democratic voters using it weekly compared to just 27% of Republican voters.
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Younger Gen Z voters continue to stray from Facebook making YouTube and TikTok as their top two social media platforms used weekly.
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The survey was conducted online from August 29-September 1 among 2,300 adults who identified as registered voters by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points.
Battleground states listed include PA, NV, WI, GA, AZ, NH, NC, OH, FL and CO.
The results reflect a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. Results were weighted for age by gender, region, race/ethnicity, and income where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.
