RBR-TVBR recently reported on the reasoning of Barclays Capital analysts Anthony DiClemente and George Hawkey as they raised their 2010 revenue expectations for television and also flipped from negative to positive on radio. The revised forecast moved upward for all major media in the US, although in some cases that’s still a negative number – just a smaller one.
“We now estimate that total 2010 US advertising will increase 3.5% (vs. our estimate for flat prior) to $167.6 billion,” the two wrote in the recent update.
They are particularly bullish on national advertising. “While ad-supported media faces a few longer-term structural questions given the impact of digital technology on ad pricing, we believe there is a transformative ‘Wal-mart effect’ taking place in media that structurally favors national advertising, as the impact of scale disparity in corporate America has a gradual structural impact on multinationals’ advertising & amrketing strategies,” DiClmente and Hawkey said. Long-term, then, they see local media losing share to consolidated national media budgets.
Immediately, though, for 2010 they see marketers returning to advertising at both the local and national levels, with the year getting ad spending boosts from the Olympics, political and the World Cup.
|Barclays Capital Advertising Forecast for 2010|
|Medium||Old Forecast||New Forecast|
|Total TV (incl. Olympics & political)||4.6%||10.1%|
|Internet (local & national)||5.7%||8.9%|
|Total US Advertising (incl. Olympics & political)||-0.3%||3.5%|
|Total US Advertising (ex. Olympics & political)||-1.4%||1.8%|
|TV Forecast Breakdown||Old Forecast||New Forecast|
|National network TV (incl. Olympics)||4.5%||7.8%|
|National cable networks||5.5%||6.0%|
|Local broadcast (incl. political)||3.0%||5.0%|
|Source: Barclays Capital|