MAGNAGLOBAL sharply ups DVR household estimates


MAGNAGLOBAL’s revised year-end 2016 forecast for DVR subscriber households now stands at 63.1 million (51.3% of TV households), compared to 40.5 million (34.7% of TV households) as of the end of Q1. By 2016, they expect that VOD – which they deem includes Over-the-Top (OTT) services – will reach 71 million households (57.7% of TV households). This compares with 53.3 million VOD households (45.6% of total TV households) at the end of Q1.

As of the end of Q1, approximately 85.2 million homes – 72.2% of the total – were online; 90% of these homes accessed the internet using broadband services. Their long-term internet access forecasts call for 98.7 million households to be online in 2016, of which 97.2 million will have broadband services.

DirecTV now has 9.9 million DVRs by MAGNAGLOBAL estimates, as 80% of new subscribers took either HD and/or DVR boxes during Q1. This compares to 7.9 million DVR subscribers at DISH Network. 53.1% of satellite subscribers now have DVRs.

Meanwhile, Comcast added 257,000 advanced service customers during the quarter. With 10.4 million HD and/or DVR subscribers, Comcast has some 6.1 million DVR subscribers –about 26.6% of the company’s total subscriber base.

Time Warner Cable’s DVR subscriptions increased by 42,000 in Q1 (vs. 47,000 in Q4 ‘10 and 13,000 in Q3 ‘10). Total DVR subscribers totaled 4.7 million at quarter’s end, 37.8% of the company’s subscriber base.

54% of Charter’s digital subscribers have HD and/or DVR boxes, or 41% of its subscriber base. Penetration is lower at smaller market cable systems; MAGNA estimates only 19.6% of Charter’s subscriber base has DVRs as of Q1.

In the UK, the leading market for DVRs outside of the US, Virgin announced that it delivered 83 million VOD views per month during Q1, to 64% (or 2.4 million) of its subscribers, equating to an average of 34 views per user per month in the quarter up from an average of 32 views per user per month in Q1 ‘10.

In Germany, Kabel Deutschland introduced its VOD offering “Select Video” in March in three major cities, currently available to 2.3 million households or 32% of its subscriber base. The service is expected to cover 3.4 million households or 47% by year’s end.

Australian Television Research Firm OzTAM estimates that in June DVRs were in 42% of homes up from 40% in March and from 30% a year ago with consistent growth across the five major cities covered in the panel.