But they’re not sure just when and it doesn’t look like they think it will be all that big. The not exactly overwhelming plurality — 30% — think advertising will bounce back, or begin to, in Q2.
The prediction is from a Media Life poll of its media-buying readers. Beyond the 30% Q2 believers, 11% think the bounceback will occur right now in Q1; 22% suggest Q3; 15% think it will happen in Q4 and 17% are pessimistic enough to select sometime in 2011 as the earliest possible recovery date.
Whatever the driving force is behind a pickup in business, few believe it will be a strong return from the automotive category. 15% thought it would pick up significantly, behind 33% who picked the elections, and 16% each who selected local business gains and gains in television advertising. A scant 6% thought a rebound among the combined group including radio, newspapers and magazines would drive an ad recovery.
18% think the Olympics will provide a boost, against 23% who think it will be a bust and 59% who think it will be neither a great success nor a huge disappointment.
The media buyers appear to already be correct on one prediction – that Jay Leno won’t last the year in the 10PM time slot. It now appears that he won’t last the quarter. With this knowledge in hand, the 60% who thought the 10PM experiment would fail actually looks a little small.
Respondents are looking for more newspapers and magazines to fold or go online-only.