The definition of an “outlier,” in the world of mathematics, is “an observation point that is distant from observations. An outlier may be due to variability in the measurement or it may indicate experimental error; the latter are sometimes excluded from the data set.”
For some radio industry professionals, the presence of an outlier has called into question the data they are receiving, and bringing it to the attention of company owners. But, are certain radio broadcasters overreacting? Or, is there good reason to question information used to drive revenue, or perhaps a company’s stock value or long-term drive to erase debt?
Two Nielsen Audio representatives agreed to speak with RBR+TVBR on the matter, on background. The information they provided shines an important spotlight on a hard topic for even those in the radio industry’s C-Suites to digest.
JUMP TO THE METER
Pack it up, pack it in, let me begin / I came to win, battle me that’s a sin
In the Nielsen world, the definition of an “outlier” focuses on situations or cases where a single panelist, or a single home, causes a station to jump around … and to a place people don’t expect.
Translation: A station that’s traditionally near or at the bottom of the ratings finds itself at the top.
Such was the case in July 2017 for Class C3 Classic Hits WGHR-FM 106.3, licensed to Spring Hill, Fla.
The station’s signal scrapes the northern portion of the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater market, fading fast as one travels south of such communities as Trinity and Wesley Chapel.
Yet, according to weekly ratings data obtained by RBR+TVBR, WGHR was No. 1 among women 18-34 in Tampa for the period of July 6-12, beating iHeartMedia‘s WFLZ-FM 93.3, Beasley Media Group‘s WQYK-FM 99.5, Cox Media Group‘s WPOI-FM 101.5, and iHeart AC WMTX-FM 100.7.
WGHR had a 0.0 in May 2017, and an 0.6 share in June 2017. The station neither had adjusted its signal, nor its “Hits 106” presentation.
The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater market has been perhaps inordinately under the radio industry microscope in 2017 for what appears to be questionable ratings data.
In mid-March, Nielsen Audio affirmed its January and February reports despite the removal of a household responsible for unusual activity associated with a Tropical station serving the market.
In the January 2017 Tampa Nielsen Audio monthly report, WYUU-IF — the internet stream of Beasley‘s WYUU-FM “Maxima 92.5” — was the the top-ranked station among Persons 18-34 and Women 18-34.
Why drop the family, yet validate data that some may assail as fraudulent?
The data in question is tied, in Nielsen’s view, to a panelist that has been found to not be doing anything wrong. But, their tuning habits may appear odd to some. Hence, the media consumption is “valid but unusual.”
Thus, the “outlier” may very well be a very important avid consumer of one particular radio station. And, one Nielsen Audio representative says, it’s perfectly normal.
“These outliers happen in all samples, and in all panels, across the research environment,” the representative notes. “No sample is ever big enough to prevent these.”
The current practice at Nielsen Audio is to review the panel on an active, ongoing basis. The other company representative who agreed to speak with RBR+TVBR confirmed that there are daily automated checks that look at various aspects of the data. Meanwhile, weekly, monthly and quarterly checks have expanded since 2014. As a result, there are between five and 16 compliance controls in existence today, ensuring that panel members are doing what they are expected to do.
Outlier detection is conducted on a weekly basis.
SPACE ODDITY
Ground Control to Major Tom / Your circuit’s dead, there’s something wrong
As part of the weekly outlier detection process, Nielsen Audio looks for oddities. Should something beyond quirky arise, a special compliance assessment is set.
At this point, certain data artifacts are reviewed. The irregular panelist or panelists again are asked to review the ways they must carry their Portable People Meter (PPM).
One Nielsen representative says this remains “an objective process — every one of those outliers is reviewed.”
Some behaviors will get coaching, the representative adds. If some of their behaviors are not coachable, Nielsen will remove the panelists from the home.
What’s an example of panel removal?
Picture this: A husband and wife are heading out for an evening of dining and entertainment. The woman has no interest in wearing a PPM all evening, so the husband agrees to clip it on to his belt — right next to his own PPM. This is flagged.
“We will attempt to coach the home,” a Nielsen representative notes.
Does it happen often? Nielsen says no.
While Nielsen would not confirm the numbers, RBR+TVBR has learned that between Q1 2016 and Q1 2017, more than two dozen outliers were removed due to carrying the PPM incorrectly.
In the majority of cases, no media affiliation or “funny business” is seen. As such, leaving these homes in the panel is of utmost desire to Nielsen Audio. Yet, one home is impacting the ratings data.
How does Nielsen Audio view this scenario?
“An outlier to one client would be considered to be an important P1 panelist to another client,” a company representative says.
These “impactful outliers” crop up at random, and everywhere. “We see about one a month across all 48 PPM markets,” a Nielsen representative says. “We’ve been looking at and investigating a process to handle these extreme cases, using steps and processes with advisory from the Media Rating Council, and it is a work in progress.”
In addition to the MRC, Nielsen Audio is working with the Audio Advisory, Policy and Guidelines Committee.
“Impactful outliers” crop up at random, and everywhere. “We see about one a month across all 48 PPM markets,” a Nielsen representative says.
Nielsen Audio wants its approach to “impactful outliers” to strike the balance between “making an objective-based decision and one that can stand up to scrutiny.”
Says one Nielsen representative, “If it was easy, we’d already be doing it. It may seem obvious, on the surface, but it is not that easy.”
Clients often contact Nielsen about these situations. The representative says each situation is meticulously reviewed.
MYSTERY MOVES
Lift my days, and light up my nights, oh / We move through miracle days / Spirit moves in mysterious ways
So, what does an “outlier” look like?
“There really isn’t much of a pattern here,” says one of the two Nielsen representatives who have spoken with RBR+TVBR. “It can happen for any station. One person or one home causes a station to jump from the bottom to the top.”
Smaller stations get the most attention— like WGHR.
“You’re not going to have a lot of issues in the marketplace where a station jumps from tenth to third,” the representative says.
The second Nielsen representative interjects, “We see all outliers — and they certainly don’t have a pattern.”
It also depends on the situation, with respect to marketplace reaction. “A 55+ outlier is typically not going to get the notice of the marketplace,” the representative says.
Then, there is the battle of Country stations in Jacksonville, which involves Renda Broadcasting Corp.‘s Class C1 WGNE-FM 99.9 “Gator Country” and, right down the dial, iHeartMedia‘s Class C0 WQIK-FM 99.1.
WQIK has traditionally been the market leader between the competitor FMs. In December 2016, however, WQIK’s ratings suddenly jumped, and remained much higher than in the previous year.
Could a station normally getting a respectable 7.7 share that was now getting a 12.4 share be the beneficiary of an outlier?
“In a case where there are two country stations battling back and forth, it’s probably not what we’re talking about,” one Nielsen Audio representative notes. “We’re talking about a station driven by one household going from the bottom to the top. This is a great example of how we really need to be careful of how we make those rules.”
As with any panel, there is always change. And, the Jacksonville scenario involves one panelist.
That’s why Nielsen Audio closely analyses every situation one may question.
Discussing the situation in early 2017 regarding WYUU-FM In Tampa, one Nielsen rep says, “This was a situation where we saw a considerable amount of listening to a stream. Our job is to validate if that behavior is legitimate. We went through special compliance assessment, and looked at various behaviors. One behavior was considered coachable. The home was coached. This was not the reason for the outlier behavior, but it was outside of what we consider to be acceptable. That behavior did not abate.”
Then, there is the oddity of having the audio stream Curtis Media Group Class C0 AC WBBB-FM 96.1 in Raleigh-Durham appear in the July 2017 PPM ratings, with a 2.4 share 6+. It popped up out of nowhere … and disappeared again in the September 2017 PPMs.
How does a radio industry executive react when such things occur?
“We became aware of [this situation] through our outlier assessment,” one Nielsen representative notes. “The home was compliant with the expectations that we have as panel members.”
The other Nielsen rep continues, “Whenever there is a stream that jumps up like that, will do an in-home visit or make a call. This gives us visual clues as to what may be going on in the household.”
Since then, the panelist’s behavior changed. The prognosis from Nielsen? “This was an unusual but valid listening condition.”
Current Nielsen Audio rules say there is no basis to say it does not belong there.
And, with digital audio set to be linked to Census-based data come early 2018, more internet streams will likely start appearing more frequently in Nielsen Audio’s surveys.
The next batch of PPM-based ratings, for September 2017, are set for Sept. 29. Questions surrounding the results from Houston, Miami-Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach are already being asked by some, considering long power outage duration and PPM compliance issues.
Nielsen’s team will undoubtedly review each panelist’s data and monitor the markets closely, just as it does in any market.
And, it will be looking for outliers.
That’s just a part of the process — one that Nielsen Audio is expressing confidence in.
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