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Volume 22, Issue 46, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
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Monday Morning March 7th, 2005
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Radio News®
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 Analyst:
LIM is working; rates are rising
In his second monthly report on radio spot loads, Harris Nesbitt analyst Lee Westerfield says Clear Channel's Less Is More initiative appears to be holding - - spot levels in February held below pre-LIM levels, although not as low as in January. More importantly, unit rates are rising. "For the first time in three quarters, the latest evidence from media buyers suggests unit ad prices are up 4-6%, rather than down 1-3% as in the recent past," Westerfield said. "But current pricing gains reflect cuts in spot loads and a shift to :30s rather than increasing demand, so pricing gains are not a clear-cut positive new trend," he added. Based on data from Media Monitors, Harris Nesbitt's Radio Airtime Index was at 94 in February, 6% below the October baseline of 100, but up from 87 in January. In Westerfield's view, though, the February rise was a seasonal norm that was to be expected. What he didn't expect was that there's been so little reaction from other groups - - neither adding inventory to grab market share, nor cutting inventories radically as Clear Channel had done. In his view, that may be because other groups are feeling the beneficial effect of better prices, so they don't have a need to make changes.
Susquehanna to restate Q3 numbers
Susquehanna Media has told the SEC that the audit committee of its board of directors found an error in its Q3 financial results (11/15/04 RBR #223), so the company is going to restate its results for the quarter. The error involves the cable operation, so Susquehanna's radio numbers won't be changing. Susquehanna said that its cable operation buys some of its programming through another operator and had booked a 1.7 million bucks saving on programming costs because that other operator had gotten a better deal from one programming supplier. But it turned out that Susquehanna wasn't eligible to buy that programming through a third party, so it's now going to have to record an additional 2.2 million in programming costs for Q3.
 "Nip/Tuck" complaints denied
The FX Network plastic surgery drama series "Nip/Tuck" has been the target of numerous viewer complaints that it is indecent or even obscene. The FCC puts the matter to rest very succinctly, stating, "...the Commission has indicated that it does not regulate cable indecency or indecency on satellite subscription services, so we deny that aspect of the complaints. Moreover, nothing in the record indicates that 'Nip/Tuck' meets the legal test for obscenity, so we deny that aspect of the complaints as well." The FCC says the complaints refer to programming which is said to include "...an array of simulated sexual acts, including oral, anal and genital intercourse, as well as nudity." Graphic depictions of liposuction, rhinoplasty and other procedures are also cited. But none of those matters, since the FCC believes it is not empowered to go there. On the obscenity side, the FCC cites a three-pronged test traced back to Miller v. California, and says that cited episodes of "Nip/Tuck" fail to rise to the level of hard core pornography stipulated by the decision in Miller. According to the Associated Press, outgoing FCC Chairman warned against trying to bring cable and DBS onto equal footing with broadcast during a recent interview on Fox News Channel. He said that such as attempt would almost most likely fail to pass constitutional muster. There are tools available to MVPD subscribers, as the FCC pointed out in its "Nip/Tuck" decision, "...a cable operator must block programming, using any means, if such a request is made by a particular subscriber. Second, a cable subscriber may obtain a lock-box from the local cable operator if he or she wants to selectively block unwanted material. Satellite subscription services have similar tools."
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The gripes of wrath: Q4 2004
The FCC's quarterly compendium of consumer complaints about the industries under its purview found that satisfaction with wireless and cable companies seemed to be on the rise, as indicated in a marked decrease in complaints. Such was not the case for broadcasting. Can you guess which category went from 121.7K complaints in Q3 to 317.8K complaints in Q4? [Hint: it wasn't disability issues]. You guessed indecency complaints, right? Indecency dwarfed all other categories. There were 111 general criticisms of broadcast programming, 21 communications regarding other program issues and 16 complaints about disability issues. Almost 120K of the indecency complaints were filed in October, a number which ballooned to over 190K in November before tailing off sharply to a mere 7.2K in December. It will come as no surprise to those following the issue that, as the FCC put it, "Increases in the number of complaints received in connection with e-mail or write-in campaigns directed at specific radio or television broadcasts during the quarter accounted for the change."
 Schwarzenegger in faux-news imbroglio
There are echoes the Bush administration "Karen Ryan reporting" controversy in California. Like the Departments of Health and Human Services and Education, the administration of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has put out a video release which mimics a broadcast news item as part of a package promoting one of the Governor's policy proposals. According to the San Francisco Chronicle, at issue are rules regarding lunch and rest breaks. Schwarzenegger wants to simplify the rules, but opponents say his proposal may eliminate the right to breaks entirely. The state's Labor and Workforce Department put together a 1.2K video featuring interviews with managers who talk up Schwarzenegger's plan. The California administration says stations were free to use the release or not, and were further free to amplify it with their own coverage. On the other side, the Chronicle quotes Democratic Assemblyman Paul Koretz of West Hollywood, saying, "We all know Gov. Schwarzenegger is good at making movies. It appears that talent has carried over to government work."
Free Press presses its case against MG
For the third time, media watchdog Free Press is trying to shoot down an attempt by Media General to obtain a waiver extension to maintain a television/newspaper cross-owned combination until the FCC's troubled rulemaking affecting such combinations is sorted out. This time, the station in question is WRBL-TV Columbus GA (Channel 3, CBS), which MG owns in conjunction with the Opelika-Auburn News, some 30 miles away across the state line in Alabama. Free Press is asking the FCC to deny the waiver extension. Other attacked combinations include the pairing of WMBB-TV Panama City FL/Jackson County Floridian and WBTW-TV/Morning News Myrtle Beach-Florence SC. Free Press's Ben Scott said, "Media General gambled that the FCC would undo the cross-ownership rule before its license in Columbus came up for renewal. But the federal courts, following a widespread public outcry, rightly rejected the FCC's attempts to change the rules. Media General wants the FCC to use a loophole to waive the rules anyway."
RBR observation: Again, the court did not condemn TV/newspaper combos outright; to the contrary, it said that often such combinations produce the finest news operations in their market. The court did attack the method used by the FCC to determine numerical caps for cross-ownership and TV duopoly/triopoly combinations. We can only repeat what we've said before - - it would be completely unfair to force a company to spin off valuable property, especially when the legality of the company's ownership may well be validated. It's not MG's fault this is dragging on as it is. All such combinations should receive blanket waivers until such time as the issue is resolved one way or the other.
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| Publishers Perspective |
 4A Moving Forward with Solutions
Yep, I use the word solutions for the simple reason that if you attended this conference last year, which most of the radio and TV CEO's did not, in either year, you heard agency and ad clients screaming and pulling their hair about accountability with audience and listener measurement systems of Nielsen and Arbitron to justify spending billions of dollars on the up front season which is almost upon us. TA-DUM - Mr. & Ms. Media Person, this year it seems the buying side of the table is experiencing the same problem with accountability and facing the fact that they must be willing to share in finding the solution to the various problems facing total media. As one speaker state, "We are not going to rip a part Nielsen or TiVo at this conference but look at the total communications mix or our creative problems." In short - - not kicking a dead dog for another year by standing around with their thumbs jammed in the wrong hole.
In a nutshell, "Share part of the responsibility of participating in Paying for the necessary research to do the job for the ad clients they are accountable to." Yep, I heard it, willing to pay Nielsen for their research. Meaning, they too are tired of losing clients to competitors and all the intellectual property that goes when the account walks out the door. Prediction, not brain surgery, the rebirth of Outdoor or those old hunks of wood by the road side will quickly become the global digital game board and grab big chunks of advertising cash. Yep, Global and Flash can put a creative message where the mobile traveler will see in :10 seconds to reinforce a product brand message and become the front mind awareness medium. Don't think so? Look at Time Square or better, the Digital Boards in Las Vegas. Now perspective time: Push one button and have the same digital message across the USA at once. Down factor, the people or labor force that pasted those messages will be out of work. Technology 2005 - people are getting smarter how to use it. Don't think so? I quote Carat North America CEO David Verklin view - #5. Media planning will be transformed into communications planning. CEO's in radio, TV and others best get into research and communications sharing and planning. Those who do win are sometimes simply those who don't lose. Ps: For a winning presentation view www.rbr.com/cd for the right Media Mix.
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| From The AAAAs In New Orleans |
 AAAAs session: Are the data valid?
Examining the state of research across all forms of media today and how the industry can and does audit those processes - This panel tried to figure out ways research can move forward from today, filling in gaps in certain media, like magazines for example, where it is hard to track readership geographically and demographically. Do the buyers and advertisers trust the numbers? What can be done to make them more reliable? Jon Mandel, Chairman/MediaCom US and Chief Global Buying Officer MediaCom Worldwide started off by commenting that it's not a question of "trusting the data," the problem is not with Nielsen, Arbitron, etc. If you look at the delays of LPM, for example, "I think what has happened is the sales sides have forgotten how to sell and they would rather lie. And so they're expanding the numbers...the networks would rather lie than sell. Go out and put local people meters in 200 markets tomorrow. Don't listen to those guys because they don't want us to know what's really happening. And that's the problem. Nielsen and the magazine research companies, they have to listen too much to the salesmen and it gets in the way of forwarding the research. But at the same time, Nielsen is making sure they all pay for it."
RBR observation: If you were looking for a forecast both Mandel and Zack nailed it on the head - Participation and Honesty. This is the year all houses have to be put into working order and move forward. Barbara Zack comments | More... |
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Adbiz©
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 Schlotzsky's goes with The Ward Group for new campaign
After reviewing proposals from about 10 agencies, the new management of Schlotzsky's Ltd. has selected The Ward Group of Dallas to handle creative and media-buying for a new advertising campaign to get the franchise sandwich chain back in the public eye. "One of the first commitments we made to our franchisees was to focus on advertising our great brand and products and repositioning ourselves in the marketplace," said Bob Barnes, President of Schlotzsky's. "We knew how important it was to get back in front of our customers as quickly as possible, which is why we chose an advertising firm less than six weeks after the new management team came on board. We are taking this aggressive approach with every aspect of our business to reposition Schlotzsky's where it belongs - - as a marketplace leader." The initial advertising work will include both television and radio in a campaign that highlights the qualities of Schlotzsky's which separate it from its competitors. Details are to be announced this month.
Grey merger with WPP to close this week
Grey Global Group says its merger with WPP Group Plc should close early this week after shareholders voted overwhelmingly last week to approve the transaction. Grey will continue to operate as a separate entity within the WPP group of companies. The 1.52 billion bucks merger was announced last September (9/14/04 RBR #179) after a summer-long bidding battle.
If revenue is your cup of tea, pay attention to this
Pepsi-Lipton Tea Partnership has reformulated its Lipton ready-to-drink iced tea - - it has new packaging, including a new glass bottle. It hopes to capitalize on a recipe which includes fresh-brewing, less sugar, and the full amount of healthful antioxidants natural to the beverage. Nine varieties are being sold, in 16-ounce, 20-ounce, 1.5-liter and 2-liter sizes. Print, online and in-store promotional avenues are in the works. And so is television.
 Mother knows best
It is a well-known fact that mothers are often decision makers when it comes to distribution of a household's expenditures. It is also a fact, according to a study released by BSM Media, producers of Mom Talk Radio, in conjunction with Radio Disney and ABC Radio Sales, a Division of Interep that 13% of them listen to ten or more hours of radio weekly, often in their car, with their children along for the ride. BSM suggests that a radio station which aims for this underserved group may be moving into largely unexplored and potentially lucrative territory. 86% of the 632 GenX moms surveyed said they control the dial in the car. Here are some more key survey findings: * Eighty one percent of mothers say they would listen to talk radio designed for moms with useful information and guest experts. Few radio programs aimed at moms exist today. * Thirteen percent of mothers say they spend over ten hours a week listening to the radio. * Eighty-six percent of moms said that advertising aimed at their children get their attention as well. * Word of mouth between moms, "Word of Mom" as Bailey terms it remains the greatest source of influence when mothers are making a buying decision. * Sixty-five percent of all mothers spend time in 3-6 locations per day (including work, school, parks, home and stores) * Quality ranks almost equal to price when it comes to the products that moms are buying. * Sixty-eight percent of moms say that they spend about the same amount of money, even when the kids are shopping with them."
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April Radio & Television Business Report
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Be sure to catch our blockbuster April NAB issue:
One on One: We interview outgoing NAB CEO Eddie Fritts.
Feature: What kind of individual would industry leaders like to see head the NAB?
AdBiz: But will they buy it?
We ask agencies and the industry about support for new, unproven formats.
Media, Markets and Money: We check the financing climate: Is financing still readily available for radio and TV deals?
Advertisers: Don't miss this opportunity to appear in Eddie Fritts' farewell interview!
Call Today, space is limited.
June Barnes at 803-731-5951 or
Jim Carnegie at 813-909-2916 |
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Don't miss your copy!
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| Media Markets & MoneyTM |
Drucker finds middle ground in Seattle
Well, buying two AMs in Seattle sorta constitutes finding some middle ground geographically - - a difficult feat to pull off and still be an owner operating solely in the USA. But when you have TV and LPTV interests in Alaska and the Florida Keys, a lot of locations constitute middle ground. Such is the case for David Drucker. Drucker, along with Penny Drucker, will be getting KBRO-AM Bremerton WA and KNTS-AM Lakewood WA from Bart Seidler's FTP Corporation for 900K. $50K is going into escrow, and will be presented to Seidler at closing along with another 250K cash. A 600K promissory note accounts for the remainder. An LMA with a 5K monthly rental fee attached began 2/15/05.
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| Washington Beat |
Slaughter, Conyers continue to stalk Gannon
Louise Slaughter (D-NY) and John Conyers (D-MI), backed by a number of co-sponsors, are putting forth a Resolution of Inquiry regarding the White House access granted to Jeff Gannon aka James D. Guckert. "The resolution comes on the heels of repeated requests by Rep. Louise Slaughter and Rep. John Conyers that the White House and the Department of Homeland Security, which has jurisdiction over the Secret Service, turn over any and all materials related to the GannonGate issue. To date, the White House, the Secret Service, The Department of Homeland Security, and the Justice Department have all failed to respond to such requests." Slaughter said, "We cannot allow the White House to stonewall the United States Congress and the American people on an issue of such importance. This is a matter of national security and unethical White House media manipulation. Every day more questions are raised and so far, the White House is not providing any answers. We intend to find out what the White House is hiding." Conyers added, "We had hoped that the half dozen congressional and senate requests for information would have been sufficient. However, to date, they have not even merited a response from the White House or its agencies. We hope that this resolution gets to the bottom of whether any processes were abused in favoring Mr. Guckert, a fake reporter from a fake news organization." The House Judiciary Committee must consider the Resolution, according to Slaughter. However, Republicans in the Committee will be able to block it from reaching the floor of the full House.
More No. 37s winners en route
Over 65% of the CP action at the FCC is going to College Creek Broadcasting in the FCC' latest installment of its Friday ritual of waving through Auction No. 37 top-bidders down the road to building their new station. College Creek was named as the licensee in 15 out of 23 new stations. All other licensees picked up one stick apiece. A notable name is Citicasters, one of the licensee names frequently used by Clear Channel, which received the go-ahead to begin working on its new FM in Anamosa IA. Final payment for this round of CPs is due 3/18/05, which translates to a dead-dead date of 4/1/05 after factoring in the 10-day grace period. Today's winners include Bott Communications: Rozel KS; Citicasters Licenses: Anamosa IA; College Creek Broadcasting: Teec Nos Pos AZ, Taft CA, Bayfield CO, Center CO, Aberdeen ID, Ashton ID, Hazleton ID, Twin Falls ID, Sutherland NE, Elko NV, Huntington UT, Hurricane UT, Ocean Shores WA, Westport WA & Superior WY; GBH Telecommunications: Brewster MA; Kemp Communications: Payson AZ; Pacific Empire Radio: Elgin OR; Starboard Media Foundation: Carney MI; Troy A. Unruh: Kiowa KS; and Visionary Related Entertainment: Kurtistown HI.
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| Programming |
 Clear Channel bags Orioles in DC
The Washington Nationals were close to a deal to air ballgames on Clear Channel's Washington radio superduopoly, only to see the deal fall through. They eventually inked a pact with Bonneville's WFED-AM/WWZZ-FM. In the wake of that, Clear Channel is renewing it's pact with the Baltimore Orioles, and will air the American League team's games primarily on WTEM-AM, according to the Washington Times. The deal keeps the O's on Washington airspace, where the team has developed many fans over the years since the Washington Senators abandoned the city following the 1971 season. The Nationals, meanwhile, are said to be looking to expand the scope of their own fledgling radio network, looking for affiliates in Marland (Annapolis, Frederick, Hagerstown), Virginia (Richmond, Norfolk), West Virginia and Delaware.
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| Transactions |
WNDY-TV Indianapolis (Marion IN) and WWHO-TV Columbus OH (Chillicothe OH) from Viacom Television Stations Group (Sumner Redstone) to LIN Television Corp.
KTOY-FM Texarkana AR. 100% of Jo-Al Broadcasting Inc.
WSPI-FM Mount Carmel PA from H&P Communications Ltd. to Clear Channel Broadcasting License Inc.
| More... |
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| Monday Morning Makers & Shakers |
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Transactions: 1/24/05-1/28/05
It slowed down toward the end of the month of January - - volume was down, as was value. There were only two multistation transactions, both in small markets. However, we know some bigger fish were fried in February...
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Total
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Total Deals
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10
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AMs
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6
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FMs
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5
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TVs
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1
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| Value |
25.75M
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| Complete Charts |
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Radio Transactions of the Week
Small deal creates bigger cluster
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TV Transactions of the Week
St. Louis is hub of swap
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| Stock Talk |
Jobs report boosts stocks
Bigger than expected job growth in February sent stock prices higher on Friday. The Dow Industrials rose 108 points, or 1%, to spend the weekend at 10,941.
Radio stocks also got a boost. The Radio Index rose 1.497, or 0.7%, to 223.448. Two Spanish broadcasters led the way. Spanish Broadcasting System rose 3.9% and Entravision gained 3%. Their larger competitor, Univision, rose 1.4%.
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| Radio Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Friday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Arbitron
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ARB
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40.60
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+0.14
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Jeff-Pilot
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JP
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49.34
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+0.47
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Beasley
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BBGI
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17.72
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+0.09
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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16.67
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+0.13
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| Citadel |
CDL |
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14.50 |
+0.18 |
Radio One, Cl. A
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ROIA
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13.84
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-0.04
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Clear Channel
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CCU
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33.39
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+0.08
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Radio One, Cl. D
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ROIAK
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13.91
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+0.04
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Cox Radio
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CXR
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16.64
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+0.10
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Regent
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RGCI
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5.29
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+0.05
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Cumulus
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CMLS
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14.31
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-0.12
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Saga Commun.
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SGA
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16.40
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+0.11
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Disney
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DIS
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28.88
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+0.31
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Salem Comm.
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SALM
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23.41
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-0.19
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Emmis
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EMMS
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19.10
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+0.14
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Sirius Sat. Radio
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SIRI
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5.66
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-0.09
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| Entercom |
ETM
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35.46
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+0.06
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Spanish Bcg.
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SBSA
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10.95
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+0.41
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Entravision
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EVC
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8.96
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+0.26
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Univision
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UVN
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28.99
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+0.39
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Fisher
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FSCI
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51.64
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+0.69
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Viacom, Cl. A
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VIA
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35.58
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-0.10
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Gaylord
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GET
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43.73
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+0.34
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Viacom, Cl. B
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VIAb
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35.16
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-0.09
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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25.27
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-0.05
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Westwood One
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WON
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21.60
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-0.08
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Interep
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IREP
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0.56
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-0.02
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XM Sat. Radio
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XMSR
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33.11
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-0.17
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International Bcg.
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IBCS
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0.01
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unch
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-
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-
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- |
-
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-
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__UNSUB__ to this email service.
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments to [email protected]
This reader sees some problems with Clear Channel's Less Is More initiative.
 In reality, "Less Is More" of the same. The same lack of thinking-through radio's problems and how to solve them. CC launches LIM in an attempt to increase value for their product and releases research to show how being in "first position" in a pod is beneficial to the advertiser and worth paying a premium for. Didn't it occur to anyone at CC that what they were really doing was de-valuing the rest of their inventory? Are they to have a sliding scale? Will the price for spots go down for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, position? Do you want this traffic nightmare? Do we really want to go there? How are values increased when the clear message sent to the agencies is that 75% of the stations inventory is worth less then what we've always claimed....and we've got research to prove it, by golly!
I read where Cumulus boss Lew Dickey thinks that our medium will be dominated by ":30's and :10's and :15's over the course of the next five years" and thinks that is good for radio. Again, Less Is More....of the same. How does offering less time for a client's message at nearly the :60 price build value? I'll grant you from a station's inventory position it is great, but what about from the advertiser's view? What about from the listener's view? What is not being considered is that agencies (and clients) will produce less compelling creative. A better story could be told in 60 seconds, where it cannot in 30. Hard sell anyone? What is more likely is that they will try to avoid buying radio all together.
Alan Gray
New Generation Broadcasting
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Stations For Sale
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Top 50 Market in the Carolinas LMA Opportunity
Solid 5,000 watt AM daytimer in one of the most attractive and fastest growing markets in the southeast. Strong Hispanic Demographics. Partial LMA or extended time brokerage also a possibility. Email serious inquiries to: [email protected]
3 station cluster
Well managed smaller market 3 station cluster in beautiful northern California. Positive cash flow. Includes newer equipment and real estate. $2.25 million. The Exline Team, Andy McClure, Dean LeGras,
415-479-3484, [email protected]
Santa Fe Market #237 FM
New market FM entrant ready to go! Santa Fe is a unique and rich market with a great opportunity for an aggressive, innovative operator!
Cliff at Clifton Gardiner & Co
(303)758-6900
[email protected]
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TVBR - TV News
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Nexstar hangs tough and advertisers hang on
Nexstar Broadcasting CEO Perry Sook  told Wall Street analysts that advertising declines have been only about a third of what was expected in the four markets where cable MSOs have pulled Nexstar's network affiliate TV signals rather than pay for retransmission consent. From where he stands, it appears that the cable companies are paying a higher toll in lost subscribers than any ad losses for his company, but the cable MSOs aren't yielding. In fact, Sook says, one of the cable companies is giving away HBO or another premium channel to keep customers from canceling their service - - something that's costing them far more than the 30 cents a month per subscriber that Nexstar wants for retransmission consent. Just what is it costing Nexstar? One analyst offered his own calculation of 100,000 bucks per month, but Sook said the actual number was a little higher than that. However, if Nexstar succeeds in getting cable systems to pay for retransmission in all of its markets, he says that will add 20 million per year to the company's EBITDA. Sook says many broadcasters have called him with support and some are preparing for their own showdowns with cable. He notes that so far Nexstar is standing alone in its battle with the cable companies, but he's expecting other broadcasters to also demand payment from the MSOs when their retransmission agreements come up around the first of next year - - and you can bet that Nexstar will expand its fight for payment to many other markets. Asked whether any of the networks have complained about being pulled off cable, Sook said all of the networks have been supportive and that Fox, in particular, pledged not to exercise its contractual option to "back-door" its NFL coverage onto cable systems that aren't carrying Nexstar's local Fox affiliate.
TVBR observation: Earlier in the week, Sook had to defend his position at the Bear Stearns investor conference in Palm Beach when an angry shareholder accused him of endangering the company's financial future because of his fight with cable. Sook wasn't phased, because he is convinced that making cable pay for local TV retransmission, just like the satellite TV companies and other cable competitors do - - and indeed, the cable companies do for all other content sources - - is vital to the long-term survival of the local television business. For more vital issues such as the one facing Sook, be sure to sign up for our April issue of Radio & Television Business Report -The Real Business Magazine as we go One-on-One with NAB's Eddie Fritts. Get it here.
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February Digital Print Magazine Now Available
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"The Pros and Cons
of Nielsen's LPM and Arbitron's
proposed PPM service"
After a rocky start, it's roll-out time of LPM & PPM. Will there be cooperation or more talk?
GM talkback: "How has LPM ratings changed selling in your market?" TV GMs say what they think-the good, bad and the ugly.
Media, Markets, and Money: Only one place tells it like it is with a run-down and overview of the biggest quarterly Radio and TV deals and outlook to 2005.
Read RBR/TVBR in 2 simple steps:
1.Create a simple account with Zinio and download the Zinio Reader.
2. You can then download the February Issue of RBR/TVBR
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RBR Radar 2005
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Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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Infinity's For Sale list gets noticed
Viacom officials have been talking for a year but CEO Joel Hollander started naming markets all eyes got focused to the reality of the situation the radio medium is truly facing - Management Internal Consolidation. This is the next level of action that will happen to maximize ROI. Why? Stations and the personnel need feeding and there just is not enough food to go around. RBR observation: A decade ago, station owners tried to keep plans to sell a closely guarded secret to stop air and sales talent rushing to the competition with their resumes. But today employees expect to have their station sold. - - There is no more job security anyplace else except they one an individual makes for themselves. Infinity employees outside the top 20 markets can pretty much assume that their employer will change within the next couple of years if not sooner. 03/04/05 RBR #45
From The AAAAs In New Orleans Verklin: "The crackle of change is in the air"
Carat North America CEO David Verklin spoke passionately about how "The crackle of change is in the air." (It was the buzz at numerous panel sessions throughout the conference.) Verklin's look into the future, "Seven changes to watch for in the next 36 months." 1. The creation of the digitally-centric direct marketing agency. 2. Watch for people experimenting with 100% composition technology. 3. Watch for the collision of commerce and cause. 4. The rise of experiential marketing. 5. Media planning will be transformed into communications planning. 6. Gaming will be far bigger than any of us can imagine. 7. Marketing analytics. The ROI calculation industry is one of the most exciting and rapidly growing parts of our industry. Reality: 75% of all the network television commercials that we've bought in this year's upfront will be bought by six companies. RBR observation: So you think the soon to buy Fall Up Front will be business as usual for 2005? Wrong Cochise just read the smoke signals in the sky. Look up not down because accountability has moved into the agencies shops. They can't beat up the radio and TV organizations any longer. Nobody wants to be the next Gen. George Armstorng Custer in the year of 2005. 03/04/05 RBR #45
Mel Karmazin disses
terrestrial radio-talks ads
Now a satellite guy and in his first public comments since becoming CEO of Sirius Satellite Radio told a Bear Stearns investor conference unlike satellite radio, there's not much growth left in terrestrial radio. "It's a very mature business." Karmazin suggested that terrestrial radio companies might be good targets for leveraged buyouts, since they produce lots of free cash flow, but he insinuated that radio will never again see the type of growth it had when he was building Infinity. Karmazin also touts ad revenues for satellite and stated satellite radio may have built its reputation on offering commercial-free music channels, but says advertising sales are going to be increasingly important as the company rolls out exclusive non-music content like NFL Football.
RBR observation: Can you imagine the local outcry if a pro sports team exits free radio to make its fans subscribe to a pay radio service in order to hear play-by-play? It's also hard to see how anyone could book more ad dollars for a service with 2% local market penetration than for one with nearly 100%, which is the only way that Sirius can pay more for the rights than a local broadcaster would. Even if getting exclusive play-by-play rights makes that 2% jump to 5%, we still don't see how the numbers could work. 03/03/05 RBR #44
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